Formula 1

[The Real Moaner]

Don't want to bore you all as I do with my Rugby posts but just thought I'd see if anyone traded Formula 1?

First race of the season tomorrow. I'm a trader as opposed to a gambler, but some very odd prices including Fernando Alonso who is 3.8 in 3rd in the same car as Felipe Massa who is 2nd at 5.3. And at a time when banning refueling should actually increase the likelihood of a procession, pole sitter Sebastien Vettel is above 3!

[AlistairH]

Couldn't quite understand that myself. I'm wondering how much the Schumacher effect is having on the prices.

With the ban on re-fueling causing much of the uncertainty, it should be interesting to see how the race pans out, not to mention the market. I fear you may be right regarding the increase chance of a procession, even more so now that the circuit has been expanded by putting in 'an impossible to pass' twisting section.

I suspect much of it will come down to tyres and how the drivers protect them given the heavier fuel loads.

[Leonthefixer]

FYI:

Further to feedback we have received from customers on how Betfair settles its Formula 1 markets, we have changed our settlement rules from the ‘official’ result, to the ‘podium’ result. This means that from the 4th march 2010, the settlement of Formula 1 markets will be based on the podium presentation, shortly after completion of the relevant race. Going forward we also intend to settle Moto GP markets on the same basis.

Where applicable, these revised ‘podium’ rules will be set out in the Market Information for the relevant market, which is available under ‘Rules’ tab in the Bet Manager to the right hand side of each market.

[The Real Moaner]

Originally Posted by AlistairH

Couldn't quite understand that myself. I'm wondering how much the Schumacher effect is having on the prices.

With the ban on re-fueling causing much of the uncertainty, it should be interesting to see how the race pans out, not to mention the market. I fear you may be right regarding the increase chance of a procession, even more so now that the circuit has been expanded by putting in 'an impossible to pass' twisting section.

I suspect much of it will come down to tyres and how the drivers protect them given the heavier fuel loads.

Think the market is giving up on Schumacher. Drifted heavily during qualifying in comparison to Rosberg although he is around the same price in the Win despite starting behind!

Yes, the conservation of tyres will be key, but I think this is being overrated.

I laid Alonso at 4.3 after Qualifying and thought that was a steal. At 3.7 and coming in, I am beyond confused. Massa and Vettel look great value however.

I really want to lay the hell out of Alonso but I don't do that! The price is beyond insane. (But you get that quite often in F1 markets!!!)

I think Barrichello and Sutil are being overrated as well. Yes, they are the first of the cars on hard tyres, but if that was such an important variable, then the cars ahead would also be on hard tyres!

So many unknowns however which can make for great trading.

[Torrezno]

It's rather difficult to place a bet here, as its the first grand prix with so many new regulations on refulelling, tyres, etc...

Think i will wait until tomorrow to decide.

[The Real Moaner]

Anyone know why these have drifted from 30/50 to 60/80? Seems outstanding value now

[The Real Moaner]

* Webber / Rosberg / Button.

[The Real Moaner]

Alonso the favourite from 3rd?!?!

[lewismbet]

I traded last year and hope to do so again this year. I am sitting out this race as I feel there are too many unknowns however laying the leaders Alonso / Vettel around the 2.5 mark they are just now would be tempting as I think it is too early to discount everyone else - even just from a mechanical point of view - in the first race

This can be handy http://www.formula1.com/live_timing/

[The Real Moaner]

Didn't end up watching the race but still a decent result based upon pre race trading. Some very interesting price swings which mirrored things from last year. Slightly disappointed that the upcoming GPs are all at stupid times which will decrease liquidity but that's life.

[The Real Moaner]

Australian GP which puts some off as you need to transfer money to your AUS wallet!

Anyone looking to get involved?

[Mike_IG]

I trade on the F1 don't make a lot but normally make around £25 a race from it so it all adds up, not sure if I'll bother with it this weekend as not sure I can be bothered to get up that early.
With regards to last week I'm guessing that Alonso was the fav because he made a mistake in qualifying which cost him pole but I had the main reason being that the Ferrari's were suppost to be good with regards to tyre wear where as the Red Bulls were suppost to eat them over a race distance and that when that happened the Ferrari's would take over (this obviously didn't seem to happen).

[Flutter F1]

Hi people, can’t believe I’ve only just found the Geeks Toy! And the forum has a thread on F1 which is a rare sight. I have been trading the F1 for about 5 years now and made a profit every season, I also run a blog at www.flutterf1.com. I mainly trade on just my knowledge of the sport rather than any system but I’d love to hear from others who play the markets.
Can’t really give you any advice on the Australian GP at this stage as it’s all going to depend on how the weather holds up. I won’t be getting involved on anything until the morning which means getting up nice and early!
I would say watch out for an early safety car and team mates being held up in the pits as everyone quickly makes a dash for new tyres. There will be lots of make or break moves if there is a safety car in the first 10 laps or so.

[The Real Moaner]

Hi Flutter. Long time reader of your blog and it's good to see you back writing!

I started to trade F1 seriously last year; especially when the liquidity arrived in the European races.

I found there is capability for profit if you trade the market and have some knowledge of the sport. Last year in races was nice going when the markets tended to reflect the positions rather than factoring in pit stops. Add in some overreactions in Qualifying and I enjoy it!

I also like to back the "No. 2 drivers" who I find to be grossly underrated as they are usually 2 or 3 times the price of the No. 1!

I tried to trade the Qualifying markets this morning but found that the liquidity on some runners poor and ended up taking some of my green away from Vettel. (Who I still think was way underpriced - one to watch as the markets were slow to catch on when Button struggled last year after his good start.)

Well done on the LH spot! Never bothered with Qualy 3 Markets due to liquidity personally.

Anyway, hopefully tomorrow's race will be a bit better than Bahrain. I'll be up nice and early for it! Will probably be reduced liquidity with the start time and the fact that you need to use the AUS wallet but we'll see.

My current thoughts on the market is that Lewis Hamilton is an absurd price. I fired in a lay at 75 this morning and he has traded as low as 32 despite being 11th and 50 at Bookmakers. I have to believe he will drift. The fact he has been shorter than his teammate is 4th is beyond words and the fact he is now shorter than Massa in 5th who has a much faster car is hilarious.

Also, Mercedes will start on Hard tyres which is interesting. Rosberg is also 6th to Schumacher's 7th yet he is 70 to Schumy's 50. Definitely worth laying Lewis and building green on Rosberg, IMO.

Also I would look to get some green on Sutil / Kubica / Barrichello. Some nice prices for a small stake and they could take advantage of any events further up.

[The Real Moaner]

Some ridiculous prices for the race tomorrow, and I've laid most of these way too high.

Hamilton and Alonso are 19th and 20th (Or around the back.) And are 20 to back on Betfair!

Mark Webber and Sebastien Vettel in the quickest car are 3.6 / 3.15. In a sport where track position is key, the pole sitter is longer than 3rd! Nico Rosberg is 2nd in a competitive car and 8!

I have an awful book, but some of these prices are just absurd.

[Ted]

Know nowt, but what sort of price movements can be expected over 1 lap, concerning the lead car,

assuming it's one of the top 3 in market ? will have a exploration play with it !

[Torrezno]

Take care of the expected weather forecast for tomorrow¡¡

[The Real Moaner]

c5th Grand Prix of the season today.

Usually, the pole sitter on a dry track is around 1.8 with second place in the mid 3x?

However, today both 1st and 2nd are 2.6!

This is frankly as good value as you will ever see. I believe 11 of the last 12 pole sitters have won the race?

Both the front row are in Red Bulls who have been considerably quicker than the field. There is simply no logic to the price other than the market irrationally loves Vettel and hates Webber.

The other thing that makes the price so generous is Red Bull's strategy of allowing Car 1 to decide when to pit and ensuring that Car 2 reacts to that which will be especially advantageous if it does rain.

For value bettors, you won't spot a greater opportunity this year. In full disclosure, I prefer a level book before a race, but this seems wholly irrational!

[Flutter F1]

Putting on my ‘value’ hat (I have no idea what that is!) then I kind of agree, but I can see what the market is doing. Back in 2007 we had a similar situation with Massa and Alonso starting 1st and 2nd respectively. Massa was priced at 2.54 and Alonso 266. At this time Alonso was much more fancied than Massa. Massa went on to win the race.
In 2008 Kimi started on pole with odds of 1.41 (!!!) however this was due to a light fuelled Alonso starting 2nd in a Renault and not much else competition at the top end. Kimi went on to win.
This year’s situation is much more like that of 2007 so the market has been priced as such – Webber 2.54 and Vetter 2.64 (in fact that’s almost identical). So in a way I can see why the market is priced like this. Is there any value is the question.
I think a correct price for the two should be more like 2.25 and 2.75 so we could have small bit of value in a back of Webber and lay of Vettel but is it enough to get interested.
Now putting on my ‘F1 junkie’ hat I have no interest in either price! I would not want to lay Vettel as a good start will put you in a very sticky situation and I would not want to back Webber as it’s going to be a long race. Red Bull are doing well and have improved significantly but some of their race decisions are suspect (what if we get a safety car – are they going to react quickly enough and avoid stacking the cars). Likewise I would not want to lay Webber or back Vettel as I don’t think that would be the value thing to do.
So in this situation I much prefer to sit out and wait to see what happens. Hopefully there will be some chances in-play around the pit-stops or if we get a safety car.

[The Real Moaner]

Another race today - around the streets of Monaco.

Hard to see any massive price inconsistencies however and the race should be somewhat processional.