Page 1 of 2 1 2 LastLast
Results 1 to 20 of 34

Thread: 100 € - 500 € November Challenge

  1. #1
    Member zrg's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2012
    Posts
    41
    Thanks: 18
    Thanked 27 Times in 18 Posts

    Default 100 € - 500 € November Challenge

    I will start a 100 € - 500 € challenge for November in the pre-race markets. My method is a trend following one based on some trends I noticed are repeating when similar market conditions occur.
    My entry point is when I see a swing opportunity 10 minutes before the off and I open only one trade per race.
    I have three exit points: 1. ten seconds to be sure it won't go in-play. 2. if it touch the 6 ticks stop-loss. 3. when a very big swing take place and I'm convinced the price will revert to it's previous position.
    The stake type I use is book profit, 0.3 € for every tick form the current bank and it will be proportionally increased. Looking at the previous weeks results, my average profit is between 3-5 ticks/race.
    Yesterday I traded 17 races and my profit was 6.16 €. It's not much but my bank is safe all the time. I will try to post here my daily progress.
    Attached Thumbnails Attached Thumbnails Click image for larger version. 

Name:	31 october.jpg 
Views:	396 
Size:	91.1 KB 
ID:	1216  

  2. The Following 3 Users Say Thank You to zrg For This Useful Post:
    lcredd (1st November 2012), skit (2nd November 2012), WhyAlwaysMe (4th November 2012)
  3. #2
    Member zrg's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2012
    Posts
    41
    Thanks: 18
    Thanked 27 Times in 18 Posts

    Default

    The first day I traded 11 races with a 4.53 € profit. I think 5% per day it's a good enough goal.The only downside is when my stake is at 2.98 or 5.8 and it drifts, the 0.3 profit / tick doubles. I will have to be careful at the increments changes. Do you use a better staking method?
    Attached Thumbnails Attached Thumbnails Click image for larger version. 

Name:	1 november.jpg 
Views:	216 
Size:	89.2 KB 
ID:	1217  

  4. The Following User Says Thank You to zrg For This Useful Post:
    skit (2nd November 2012)
  5. #3
    Forum Addict
    Join Date
    Mar 2011
    Posts
    496
    Thanks: 70
    Thanked 156 Times in 105 Posts

    Default

    hi zerg

    good profits.

    do you prefer to back or lay first. i used to find myself being habitual layer but now i prefer to back first

  6. #4
    Member zrg's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2012
    Posts
    41
    Thanks: 18
    Thanked 27 Times in 18 Posts

    Default

    I usually lay first the horses with odds below 15 and avoid the favorite because it's price is very manipulated. In the past I backed first and the results were the same, using a different selection method.

  7. #5
    Forum Addict
    Join Date
    Mar 2011
    Posts
    496
    Thanks: 70
    Thanked 156 Times in 105 Posts

    Default

    the reason i switched was that with a smaller bank it is possible to leverage the amounts more by backing first. After my failure trading last week i have decided to look into the different methods of trading.

    Have you ever thought about dutching 3 or 4 horses and trading them, i have never tried but have thought about it and wondering if anyone had any experiences of it.

  8. #6
    Member zrg's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2012
    Posts
    41
    Thanks: 18
    Thanked 27 Times in 18 Posts

    Default

    The reason I backed first was that my method was to find closely matched trades between Betfair and BOG Bookmakers. When the horse drifted my hedge was made with the BOG price. Half of my selection were steamers and for more than two months I made a nice profit from a 2k € bank. When I begun to withdraw from the Bookmakers, they all closed my accounts.
    My current Betfair method can be scaled up to 50 €-100 € profit per day without affecting the odds too much. This would be enough for me, these days I trade only part time, as I returned to my old job. What I want to see is that I am able to follow the rules. If it's not fitted for me I'm sure that my bank will be fast depleted by my stupid mistakes.
    I lay first because I'm more relaxed like this and the pattern is in that direction. The liability is not a problem, I could deposit 5 times more for bigger profits. Until I don't find consistency with this method, there's no point to take a bigger risk.
    The dutch method you mention can work when two - three horses are strong in the market, the drift on one will affect the others, but also the loss could be two times bigger.
    If you found an edge, I think you should continue for a longer period of time.

  9. #7
    Member zrg's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2012
    Posts
    41
    Thanks: 18
    Thanked 27 Times in 18 Posts

    Default

    18 races traded and a bigger profit for the day. My bank is now 125.35 €.
    Attached Thumbnails Attached Thumbnails Click image for larger version. 

Name:	2 november.jpg 
Views:	268 
Size:	91.4 KB 
ID:	1219  

  10. The Following 2 Users Say Thank You to zrg For This Useful Post:
    lilek (2nd November 2012), skit (2nd November 2012)
  11. #8
    Member zrg's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2012
    Posts
    41
    Thanks: 18
    Thanked 27 Times in 18 Posts

    Default

    Saturdays are great for my methods of trading. The prices aren't that much manipulated, maybe because of the increased liquidity. Today's profit is 26.63 € in 21 races.
    Attached Thumbnails Attached Thumbnails Click image for larger version. 

Name:	3 november.jpg 
Views:	207 
Size:	93.1 KB 
ID:	1220  

  12. The Following 3 Users Say Thank You to zrg For This Useful Post:
    dvwooly (3rd November 2012), lilek (4th November 2012), skit (3rd November 2012)
  13. #9
    Forum Addict
    Join Date
    Mar 2011
    Posts
    274
    Thanks: 40
    Thanked 136 Times in 85 Posts

    Default

    really nice results

  14. The Following User Says Thank You to milivoje For This Useful Post:
    zrg (3rd November 2012)
  15. #10
    Virgin
    Join Date
    Sep 2012
    Posts
    1
    Thanks: 3
    Thanked 1 Time in 1 Post

    Default

    Awesome, zrg, keep it up C:

    I'm a keen reader of your blog and really dig your honest and direct writing style. Its refreshing. All the best with your challenge!

  16. The Following User Says Thank You to booblet For This Useful Post:
    zrg (4th November 2012)
  17. #11
    Forum Guru flok's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2009
    Location
    ita
    Posts
    858
    Thanks: 715
    Thanked 800 Times in 336 Posts

    Default

    i agree, saturday is the best day of the week for me too (if i dont tilt after few losses, as i usually do)

  18. #12
    Member lilek's Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 2010
    Posts
    34
    Thanks: 26
    Thanked 30 Times in 11 Posts

    Default

    No more tennis trading?

  19. #13
    Member zrg's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2012
    Posts
    41
    Thanks: 18
    Thanked 27 Times in 18 Posts

    Default

    hi Lilek! I have two Betfair accounts and on this one my trades are only on horses. My tennis trading is now on idle, it seems I don't have the patience to follow each point of a game and take the best decision. I get very bored after a while. Looking at my results my best performance is on horses and I try to increase it with a more structured approach.

  20. #14
    Member zrg's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2012
    Posts
    41
    Thanks: 18
    Thanked 27 Times in 18 Posts

    Default

    Today I increased my stakes to 0.5/tick and only one losing race.
    Attached Thumbnails Attached Thumbnails Click image for larger version. 

Name:	4 november.jpg 
Views:	263 
Size:	88.6 KB 
ID:	1222  

  21. The Following 3 Users Say Thank You to zrg For This Useful Post:
    dvwooly (4th November 2012), PC0845 (4th November 2012), skit (4th November 2012)
  22. #15
    Member zrg's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2012
    Posts
    41
    Thanks: 18
    Thanked 27 Times in 18 Posts

    Default

    Well, after my early success and satisfied with the result, I became very confident and wanted to trade one more race and the inevitable happened. Some very rookie decisions to lay with odds higher than 10. The result: blew almost my whole bank. 12 € left. The moment I ignored my strategy the disaster happened.
    To begin I had a 2.8 loss. Before I anticipated at least 5 big swings so a losing one was normal. I accepted it before very easy. But I wanted to end the day with a win and I let it ride. 10 seconds before the off and the price still continued the steam, and my loss became of over 9 euros on a horse with 3.2 odds. I said to myself to close the trade but I didn't close the market, worse I layed a horse with 15.0 for 6 to reduce my loss to 4 €. Exactly these two horses were almost photo finish (Future Dominion, the horse I traded pre-race was 1.1 on-play) and of course the one I layed at 15.0 had won (Elegant Olive in 17:30 Huntington). I haven't watched a race for several weeks but this one I had to watch. The tilt moment that Flok mentioned to chase the loss continued and eventually I ended laying US horses and blew all my bank.
    My 100 € were used to see if I can stick to this method and the moment I ignored it, all collapsed. I'll take two days off, go to work, at the gym and come back with new energy. It ain't over yet. Still 25 days left this month. I'm curios how many hits like this I'll take in the future until I can take the full responsibility.

  23. The Following 3 Users Say Thank You to zrg For This Useful Post:
    lcredd (6th November 2012), skit (5th November 2012), valve (8th November 2012)
  24. #16
    Forum Guru flok's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2009
    Location
    ita
    Posts
    858
    Thanks: 715
    Thanked 800 Times in 336 Posts

    Default

    sorry to hear that, but try to look at it in a positive way: you're learning a very important lesson adn you paid it only 100.
    my learning was much more expensive (and i dont even think it's over)...
    after 2010 and 2011, 2 whole years of profitable trading, i was starting to think i was unbeatable and started to hardly accept losses, overstaking, chasing losses, adding on losing trades, letting races go inplay with open positions, gambling etc

    result: i blew 2 banks of 5.000 euros and 2 of 1.000 euros.
    at the moment i'm trying to recover and my total balance of 2012 is -1.000. i hope i can turn it in +1000 before the end of year, but anyway if i accepted my losses it could have easily been +10.000.
    i console myself thinking that this year was a year of learning, and the profit i lost this year will teach me to be more careful the next one.

    hope my bad example helps...
    when you're fighting on a ring, even if you think you're better than the other guy and you'll win at the end, he can always break some of your teeth in any moment, so never lower your guard.

  25. The Following 4 Users Say Thank You to flok For This Useful Post:
    lcredd (6th November 2012), miklos7303 (5th December 2013), valve (8th November 2012), zrg (5th November 2012)
  26. #17
    Forum Addict
    Join Date
    Mar 2011
    Posts
    496
    Thanks: 70
    Thanked 156 Times in 105 Posts

    Default

    zrg

    its happened to me a few times but the key is to see it as the cost of your betfair trading education. People pay to go to uni this is your way of paying for the lessons in trading. As time goes on the costs decrease until you start to see a return from the investment in your education.

    Keep your head up, the profits are there its just the human emotion that has taken over to result in a loss. I have been there, last trade of the day you have had a nice day and you let one ride as you dont want to spoil a good day only for it to go horribly wrong. Its one reason why im trying to automate my trading, wish AGT had some sort of bolt on where oyu could insert your own trading methods, i think that would make this program 10000000 times better than anything else but it woudl come at an extra cost which i would more than welcome paying.

  27. The Following User Says Thank You to dvwooly For This Useful Post:
    zrg (6th November 2012)
  28. #18
    Forum Guru PC0845's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2010
    Location
    Waterford Ireland
    Posts
    830
    Thanks: 516
    Thanked 606 Times in 255 Posts

    Default

    Wooly, Flok and ZRG, thanks for your honesty. I really thought it was just me that was capable of being a mindless berk. It's a really crappy feeling but it is inevitable for some of us, I honestly feel we are all capable of spotting opportunities for a green, there's no silver bullet or magic formula, but what separates the successful from those of us still learning to swim is the ability to take the red and delete it from memory immediately.

    Stick at it, you have the skills but need to develop the mindset.

  29. The Following 3 Users Say Thank You to PC0845 For This Useful Post:
    milivoje (5th November 2012), skit (5th November 2012), zrg (6th November 2012)
  30. #19
    Member zrg's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2012
    Posts
    41
    Thanks: 18
    Thanked 27 Times in 18 Posts

    Default

    thank you for the encouragements, it really helps. It's strange that I can anticipate before a race that I might lose and that my state is not ideal for trading. Tomorrow will start with a new bank and I'll try not to repeat the same mistake. My clock is 2 hours later than UK time, so the races begin around 15:00 and I have more time to get in the right mindset. It's not the costs to learn how to trade I have paid, it was the cost of not being disciplined and that could be avoided. My expectations are not to make a lot of money right now, that's why I started with 100. My concern is that even if 4/5 times I can anticipate a big swing and I still have problems to take the profits and minimize the losses. In the past helped me to have a journal with all the emotions during races and I will write one again.

  31. #20
    Member zrg's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2012
    Posts
    41
    Thanks: 18
    Thanked 27 Times in 18 Posts

    Default

    A really nice day for me, I made a 27.82 profit in 17 races. I've begun to accept that one in five races are scratches or losses and today I tried to be more prepared for the loss. It's good to be back.
    Attached Thumbnails Attached Thumbnails Click image for larger version. 

Name:	7 november.jpg 
Views:	203 
Size:	91.5 KB 
ID:	1225  

  32. The Following User Says Thank You to zrg For This Useful Post:
    skit (8th November 2012)

Tags for this Thread

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  

Talented Mavericks Limited
26 Buttercup Close
Corby
Northants
England
NN18 8LB

UK Company # 04872848
UK VAT # 887366268

Facebook TwitterYouTube



Betfair    Betdaq    VISA  Mastercard  American Express  Dinners Club  Discover  PayPal  Skrill