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Thread: DVWooly Diary - trading horses pre race

  1. #141
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    i mean filtering out by odds. If i was to do odds on i would need a nice strike rate so i will remove them.

    time will tell how it works, i think it wont but we will see

  2. #142
    Forum Guru Morgans Choice's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by dvwooly View Post
    i mean filtering out by odds. If i was to do odds on i would need a nice strike rate so i will remove them.

    time will tell how it works, i think it wont but we will see
    Hi D,

    this is the method I used to use to test all my betting methods. I found it quite elegant as it easily deterrmined either value price or that the blasted method didn't work based on my sample,

    cheers, MC

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  4. #143
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    im running the method in simulation mode on my bot today. One with no filters and one with the odds and number of runners filters (i prefer this one).

    i'll do this for a month and see what comes of it, it will be interesting to see what happens.

    I know the previous method will smash up double figure profits today as i have not put any money down ..... typical theme that always happens!

    im off as people dont really want to hear about this crazy method on a trading forum .. will post results on 31 December (i wont be doing the madness of boxing day)

    I'll post up results more frequently if people want to know how it gets on or i could just set up one of those blogger things to record the results.

  5. #144
    Forum Guru shadowninja's Avatar
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    Just post up. Nobody's really posting anything and it gets boring when it says there are no new posts.

    PS How do you write a bot?

  6. #145
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    How I envision running a bot is:












    How running my bot will be:

  7. #146
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    Quote Originally Posted by shadowninja View Post
    Just post up. Nobody's really posting anything and it gets boring when it says there are no new posts.

    PS How do you write a bot?
    i bought it off the shelf a few years back, you have probably heard of it.

    It simply backs or lays horses or dogs and it is 99.99% reliable. It has all sorts of features built in but it can not be used for trading hence the reason why i bought AGT.

    I can PM you the link if you are interested ....

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    Ohhh. I know the product you mean.

  9. #148
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    im off as people dont really want to hear about this crazy method on a trading forum .. will post results on 31 December (i wont be doing the madness of boxing day)
    Keep posting DV, it is interesting to some of us.

  10. #149
    Forum Guru WhyAlwaysMe's Avatar
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    Yes - I'm interested .

    Straight backing is a perfectly valid trading strategy if you can build a winning model. What my issue is I don't understand (or is maybe beyond my understanding) how you can have an edge straight backing horses on Betfair what with their horrendous commission rates? Also we know Betfair is a very efficient market.

    Isn't the idea of gambling/trading to make selections that have a bigger percentage chance of winning than the price offered? If a horse is 1.50 and you rate it's chances as 80%, wouldn't you back? But then if you are backing at 1.50 on BF you are really backing at 1.42 which is a different thing altogether.

    Betfair is poor value for straight backing at any odds under about 7.0 unless you are looking at big drifters, which can provide value.

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  12. #150
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    i dont bl00dy beleive it ....... come back from the doctors to see

    5.1 winner
    5.0 winner
    3.6 winner
    loser
    loser

    and its the day i switch to the place betting!!!

    sometimes i wonder why i put myself through this pain

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    The market is watching you.

  14. #152
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    Quote Originally Posted by shadowninja View Post
    The market is watching you.
    It is indeed ! I'm glad he's been to see his doctor.

  15. #153
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    i give up!!!!


    14:45 Ludlow Hcap Chs 11 Tour Des Champs 7.82 winner

    and restless harry

  16. #154
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    keep posting mate,interested in how you doing.

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  18. #155
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    DVWooly, you should try to ignore results in the short term, variance will play havoc with your state of mind. I try to avoid checking results on a daily basis.

    IMO, I am not sure any blanket system based upon prices at the off will be profitable, even after applying some basic filters.

    What happened to your trading and increasing stakes?

    Stick around, personally I don't think there is much difference between discussing punting and trading.

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  20. #156
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    ok a profitable day either way

    unfiltered results

    19/12/2012

    win market +7.18
    place market +2.31

    with my filters

    win market +11.4
    place market +4.83


    either way a nice day but i had 10 straight losing bets on the unfiltered win bets (4 filtered).

    Just keep plodding onwards i suppose and maybe refire up the win market bets if they are successful after 250 bets

  21. #157
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    Quote Originally Posted by ForeTwo View Post
    .

    IMO, I am not sure any blanket system based upon prices at the off will be profitable, even after applying some basic filters.
    the selections arent based on prices alone ....... i just filter out less than a certain price 3.0 in the win market and 2.0 in the place market

  22. #158
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    Filtered Win market (red) and filtered place market (green) graphs since 15/12/2012

    Place Market

    P&L 16.62

    won 26
    lost 13
    total 39
    strike rate 66.67%


    Win Market

    P&L 27.62

    won 13
    lost 30
    total 43
    strike rate 30.23%
    Attached Thumbnails Attached Thumbnails Click image for larger version. 

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  23. #159
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    I will post up the P&L's for each system using level, 5% and 10% bank stakes....... tomorrow when i have time to upload them to myblog and get the link for here.

    the results are very very interesting!!

  24. #160
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    Quote Originally Posted by WhyAlwaysMe View Post
    Yes - I'm interested .

    Straight backing is a perfectly valid trading strategy if you can build a winning model. What my issue is I don't understand (or is maybe beyond my understanding) how you can have an edge straight backing horses on Betfair what with their horrendous commission rates? Also we know Betfair is a very efficient market.
    I agree the commission rates are crazy however the place market here is the better than the tote. If i get to the point where i hit the premium charge, i have LOTS of life time losses then i will be happy. If i was to ever hit the 60% one i think i would be moving over to Betdaq.

    What are the limits for the premium charges?? (im a long long way off paying these and probably never will!)

    I don't understand this edge/value thing, im not a massive horse racing fan .... i wouldnt know Kauto Star if he was parked in my garden with the jockey on top of it. For me if you are making a profit over 100 bets then you have an edge??

    i just like gambling and have always done it on horses because my brother used to come home with htese yellow slips and i used to threaten to tell my parent he was gambling. As a result i would bribe him by letting me pick one of his slips, if it won he would give me the money and i had to be quiet for the same amount of weeks as the odds. It was exciting and as soon as i turned 18 i often went to York, Thirsk, Wetherby, Newcastle or Sedgefield as well as Sunderland Dogs. I knew a horse owner who used to put me onto his horese when it was going to win, never won when it went off as favourite ... nearly always over 3/1 ... very strange!! He ALWAYS told me to back it Each Way though, he had to get cash each month to pay the fees

    just checked out its history from 1999 - newest first in the list

    Period Runs 1st 2nd 3rd Win% £ level stake
    Lifetime 46 10 6 9 21.74 1.98

    1/9 3/1
    1/8 8/11
    1/9 3/1
    1/14 7/2
    1/9 7/2
    1/10 7/4
    1/19 13/2
    1/7 7/1
    1/19 4/1
    1/6 5/1


    So, in summary, my angle is purely numbers as that is my background since i did an economics degree and qualified as a chartered accountant and find myself working in hedge funds. I have a head for figures and unfortunately i am constantly analysing these bl00dy horse racing results to see if i can work out a selection method that i will bring a reliable long term profits. It really has bugged me for about 20 years and i will keep going until i die or until i find a method that can win me 1 point per day ...... then my mind will finally rest.

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