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Thread: draw inflation tool

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    Default draw inflation tool

    i read about this the other day, now i see it has a special offer with the geek..

    anyone tried this, looks very interesting.. seen plenty of green screenshots, but worries me more is the lack of red ones..

    anyone had a crack yet?

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    Think I might join this. You can do a trial for £14 according to the website.

    Best to wait a few weeks though! I'm not joining with the expectation of making money but to hopefully learn something which could lead somewhere.

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    It sounds to me like they are using a diagonally inflated bivariate model ...

    "The majority of football models are based on the poisson distribution and so is the PMT tool - a heavily modified poisson model which allows for teams correlation and leagues specific corrections.
    Historically poisson models have been predicting draw outcomes to occur less often and the error has been around 10%, therefrom the draw inflation - inflating/increasing the probability of draws and of course draw scores 0-0/1-1 etc."


    Source linky


    Funnily enough, the model that I completed in Excel at the end of last season, was using this method ...

    The paper that I took it from is:

    Analysis of sports data by using bivariate Poisson models, Dimitris Karlis and Ioannis Ntzoufras

    I would be interested in what numbers the DI guys churn out, just as a comparison to my own work.

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    Sounds like you have a big tool yourself DB .

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    Quote Originally Posted by doubleback View Post
    It sounds to me like they are using a diagonally inflated bivariate model ...
    It could also be a univariate model.

    Quote Originally Posted by doubleback View Post
    I would be interested in what numbers the DI guys churn out, just as a comparison to my own work.
    That's probably going to cost you a subscription.

    Doubleback, what did you end up using as the inflation function? Seems to be somewhat empiric whether people are using geometric distribution, Bernoulli or whatever.

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    Quote Originally Posted by joneyyy1981 View Post
    but worries me more is the lack of red ones..
    Of course we have red ones, nobody wins them all.
    The idea is that the further the DI from the average the higher the probability of a winning trade there.

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    Quote Originally Posted by doubleback View Post
    It sounds to me like they are using a diagonally inflated bivariate model ...

    I would be interested in what numbers the DI guys churn out, just as a comparison to my own work.
    Spot on.
    Diagonally inflated bivariate poisson + additional corrections which the model cannot capture (price of 2-1 to faves being one).
    Please use the contact form at PMT site and we'll activate your access, PMT offers the same DI tool plus CS, o/u, half time prices etc.

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    Anyone into football modeling is welcome, be happy to exchange ideas and improve.

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    I love this "science stuff" . Please will somebody give the correct scores for tonight's games. ( No graphs or matrices, please, as they take me back to my student days and make me feel old.)

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    Quote Originally Posted by custard View Post
    I love this "science stuff" . Please will somebody give the correct scores for tonight's games. ( No graphs or matrices, please, as they take me back to my student days and make me feel old.)
    There was a big move in denmark v germany 2.5 market a couple of hours ago, AUQ was available @9 for a few minutes while "science" said new price should be around 7, look at it now

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    I think the Germany v Denmark game will end 1 - 0, 2 - 0 or a 1 -1 draw. If I should be correct, it will be interesting to see how the science accounts for these results.

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    Quote Originally Posted by custard View Post
    I think the Germany v Denmark game will end 1 - 0, 2 - 0 or a 1 -1 draw. If I should be correct, it will be interesting to see how the science accounts for these results.
    That's not very sporting - you're on about 30% of the market!

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    Quote Originally Posted by custard View Post
    I love this "science stuff" . Please will somebody give the correct scores for tonight's games. ( No graphs or matrices, please, as they take me back to my student days and make me feel old.)
    Strictly speaking it's not science, it's mathematics. Or statistics, to be more exact.

    One of the strengths of a statistical model like this is that it can explain the correlation between markets which are basically projections of the same one market: Correct Score, Match Odds, Over/Unders, Draw No Bet, Double Chance, Both Teams to Score, Teams to Score, Odd or Even, Winning Margin, Total Goals, Home Goals, Away Goals, Handicaps and Asian Handicaps.

    This can for instance be used to predict market corrections as xtrt describes, where the prices in liquid markets like O/U 2.5 will drive the prices in the less liquid markets like CS Any Unquoted.

    The results are only as good as the parameters you put into the model, but using it to identify mispriced markets doesn't require any opinion on the actual odds.

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    I studied statistics as part of my first year mathematics course at university. I was young and silly in those days and had much to learn about life. My initial thoughts were basically - statistics is a load of bollocks.

    Now, I am much older and very much wiser. I am able to say, after all these years, that "statistics is a total load of bollocks".

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    Quote Originally Posted by custard View Post
    total load of bollocks
    It's not just statistics.

    Websites too can he summarised by the same phrase

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    Quote Originally Posted by xtrt View Post
    There was a big move in denmark v germany 2.5 market a couple of hours ago, AUQ was available @9 for a few minutes while "science" said new price should be around 7, look at it now
    Sorry but that info is incorrect...If you look at 'traded and available' on AUQ you will see 2k traded =1k each side at 9....this was 2 hours after the market formed.
    Since then the market has adjusted according to opinion....Brave man that ties up serious coin that early...So it gets matched in 5's+10's...Agree with Custard this is Bollocks......Graphs are good to show what has happened and this proves your out of order to highlight this example......

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    Quote Originally Posted by dude67 View Post
    Doubleback, what did you end up using as the inflation function? Seems to be somewhat empiric whether people are using geometric distribution, Bernoulli or whatever.
    I am using a geometric function that contain three additional parameters for 0-0, 1-1 and 2-2.
    After putting down the groundwork, I am looking at cutting down the time it takes to model each game, which means improving my excel skills (as you are aware of, from another fred!). I've got the time it takes to model a game down from 30 minutes, to 10 minutes, with additional time savings in the pipeline. This will allow me to run simultaneous models with tweaks in the forthcoming Premiership season ...

    I'm quite looking forward to what the new season brings and will be using my model to identify value. The concept of using a model to trade pre-match seems interesting, I noticed a similar phenomenon from the few games I modelled last season, where on some matches, the odds moved towards my model. Whether there is any long term profit in this, I don't know, It's something I will look at. I guess if it is a profitable strategy, the proof will be in the pudding and if one were to pay for a subscription then an independent clarification of results wouldn't be too much to ask for.

    To be be honest, I picked up a maths paper about football and became intrigued. The journey has been more interesting than the destination, i have learned a lot on the way ... what will come of it, I don't know ...

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    Apologies, it was a quick example only, if i had traded the AUQ i would've known better.
    Looking at detailed logs now - o2.5 dropped from 1.92 to 1.83 between 9:03am and 9:06am.
    AUQ was available to back @8.8 until 9:04am and @8.6 until 9:07am
    The expected AUQ price of 7 was hit 3 hours later with o2.5 trading @1.80~1.81.

    Of course it's all market opinion, but bollocks or not liquid markets dictate prices in secondary ones.

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    Quote Originally Posted by xtrt View Post
    Apologies, it was a quick example only, if i had traded the AUQ i would've known better.
    Looking at detailed logs now - o2.5 dropped from 1.92 to 1.83 between 9:03am and 9:06am.
    AUQ was available to back @8.8 until 9:04am and @8.6 until 9:07am
    The expected AUQ price of 7 was hit 3 hours later with o2.5 trading @1.80~1.81.

    Of course it's all market opinion, but bollocks or not liquid markets dictate prices in secondary ones.

    Thank you. Your prompt and detailed reply is much appreciated.
    I have no comment as to the value of this tool, that is for those that use it to decide.
    However it is my view that Betfair is a re-active market maker. To explain this, your market move timings will correlate to, and with, early adjustments made by Bet £3.65...Stan james. and others.

    Although these sports books are large companies they will have a trader flagged on these markets when a liability of maybe +£50 is asked for. They adjust, usually decline the bet and Betfair layers react to their price movement. This is part of their arbitrage protection protocol they use.

    To take advantage of this imbalance by monitoring Betfair markets is possible short term but not scalable IMO but good luck with your endeavours.....

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    Quote Originally Posted by doubleback View Post
    I am using a geometric function that contain three additional parameters for 0-0, 1-1 and 2-2.
    After putting down the groundwork, I am looking at cutting down the time it takes to model each game, which means improving my excel skills (as you are aware of, from another fred!). I've got the time it takes to model a game down from 30 minutes, to 10 minutes, with additional time savings in the pipeline. This will allow me to run simultaneous models with tweaks in the forthcoming Premiership season ...

    I'm quite looking forward to what the new season brings and will be using my model to identify value. The concept of using a model to trade pre-match seems interesting, I noticed a similar phenomenon from the few games I modelled last season, where on some matches, the odds moved towards my model. Whether there is any long term profit in this, I don't know, It's something I will look at. I guess if it is a profitable strategy, the proof will be in the pudding and if one were to pay for a subscription then an independent clarification of results wouldn't be too much to ask for.

    To be be honest, I picked up a maths paper about football and became intrigued. The journey has been more interesting than the destination, i have learned a lot on the way ... what will come of it, I don't know ...
    10 Minutes a market? What on earth are you doing in all that time Doubleback

    When I used to assess games I first used excels webquerys to pull down the future games and prev data and whole leagues would be assessed in seconds. Later I moved onto php, mysql and footballdata.co.uk to run everything might be worth you looking down those routes to speed things up doubleback so more time can be spent looking for angles rather than analysing.

    Got to admit the football side of things intrigues me too as all markets are essentially related and they'll always be value in the lower liquidity markets for either trading or value punting. It's something I need to get back into as I knocked it on the head due to the masses of racing and having no free time.

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