Hey guys, into the in running trading somewhat now and theirs certain things i look for... just wanted to put it out their to those of you who know about evaluating a race, what sort of things give it away when a horse is/isnt trying... few obvious ones to start would be... jockey starting to push the horse too early one, brandishing the whip ready for use, the horses head carriage becoming over animated maybe... what sort of other things is worth looking for?
I've only worked these out from watching as i know little about horse racing.
How they're jumping (pretty obvious really)
If they're front running on a track where there's been loads of front running winners so far that day the odds could go down more than usual (with the inverse if a horse is held up.)
I guess a lot depends on what's happening with the other horses too and the make up of the market. If the one you're watching if about to be slapped earlyish then normally the odds would rise, but maybe not if the main rival(s) have the same problem, especially if the odds on favourite had a problem.
Maybe which side of the track the horse decides to run on (depending on where the best ground is etc) or if it goes too wide.
|The Following User Says Thank You to bazbaz For This Useful Post:|
rabetsuNEW (6th February 2012)
definately its always going to be proportionate.... what about when they feed the reins through and that ? at this stage im not sure what that means, usually its quite obvious if their all starting to get pushed on like you said baz and one jockey's sitting their motionless!
hi chuck, it' the jockey sitting motionless that i look for,the odds usually tumble even if
there at the back!!
Heavy nodding and jockey body language. A lot of people get caught out laying short priced favourites who are a few lengths off the lead with a few furlongs to go. If they looked at the absolutely nonchalant attitude of the jockey, they would realise its basically a cert that it's going to come through.
Ye the more obvious stuff.... but anyone got any further knowledge?, i know patrick vietch in one his books was saying about bend of their legs etc.... is their anything thats not as widely known of use? in the last, always remembering theirs no such thing as a cert aswell.. today in the last the winner was being pushed on and 'reminded' from about 2 miles out lol
Well take J Spencer and K Fallon both totally different flat jockeys and some of the things you pointed out would put you in the poor house, Fallon 'winds the horse up' the best in the game by far so you may see him using his hands and reins a good few furlongs out thinking the horse is beat, but beware of the King, Spencer is the opposite, he tends to be 'showboaty' and just wants to cruise around and win by a sh head!, if he is on a 'family' horse and its to win you will see a different ride from him, then just back him he usually is gone from the front and just keeps going, many many different things with jockeys , but stick to 2 or 3 and you wont go far wrong, If you want to know how the NOT ride correctly watch Richard Hills in action, just lay all his horses you will never lose over a season!.
|The Following User Says Thank You to attheraces For This Useful Post:|
PC0845 (6th February 2012)
Things i look out for (i dont look for non triers) when race reading past races
in no order
made all, (hard driven, hard ridden usually in the final few furlongs) tracked leaders, ridden along to lead, set strong pace, stayed on strongly
Towards rear, never nearer, No pace to challenge, reminders after start(implies early use of whip, meaning no strikes left at the business end of the race) dwelt, not fluent(jumping)
never dangerous, no impression
Comments to listen out for during the race, On the Bridle or off the Bridle, favourite of mine is the Horse has its ears pricked.. means its going well, concentrating and travelling as we like em to.
Theres loads more to add to the list, think i read that you are moving and that you wont have sky? so will miss out on the racing channels.. till then race read, make notes record the days racing and analysis the races.... i still do, racing the last few days has been poor imo.
Maybe not the info you wanted chuck, but its late and i am off to bed.. all the best
Chuck ...Won't add to the debate over jockey style's but would like to pass my opinion on the subject of race reading pointers.
This is for flat racing....I don't play the jumpers...One of the most important things to remember and always keep in mind is a simple fact of racing...More horse's loose race's by being produced too early than too late..Some call this jockey 'showboating' but ask the trainers and they will confirm what you have just read.
So how does this help you. Look for the boxed in and hating it runner, not the covered up runner he's a danger. It's easy to ride on the bridle covered up, if the horse can see daylight and is on the bridle that jockey has complete control regardless of his riding style.
|The Following User Says Thank You to Thomson For This Useful Post:|
chuck536 (6th February 2012)
The market makes some interesting and early movements around 9am on a few horses which, on further investigation, are fancied, and word gets out which has a knock on effect across all of the bookmakers.
Most of these prices come tumbling 'in' before the off, whilst others either run well and sometimes win.
The market (all bookies) soiling themselves, leaves a tell tale sign (and fragrance) which warrants further attention as to why.
An ideal lay to back!!
Some Nice vids.
More detailed on/off Bridle as nicked from some website
ON/OFF THE BRIDLE: A tired horse reduces his effort and is said to be `behind or off the bridle".
A horse with `plenty of running' still has energy and is still in contact with the jockey via the bit and the reins and is said to be still `on the bridle'
You will hear these terms during a race sometimes, usually on timeform its what i listen too.
Pretty amazing that some of you don't even watch the races on the live streams, listen to the radio instead and still doing in-play betting! Hahaha!!!
As I am in Germany my live videos are obviously a bit slower than the once in Britain. Therefore I usually watch the horses before the race, behind the maschine etc. I think if the tail sticks out a bit off the rump, that's a good sign. Also some horses just appear like winners. Hmm...? Actually I haven't made fortunes with this tactics (yet)...
But I am wondering that I never found anyone talking about the body language of horses anywhere in European racing. In my theories the handicappers tries to equalize a race, so more or less every horse must have a chance to win. So the day form should be very important!
Very important point that last one about how they appear pre race and one of the most important I feel in regards to how a horse is prepared physically and mentally.
Is the horse sweating up, agitated, etc etc. At this point it should be noted that I do zero in regards to this, but I still think it is very important for those taking that route.
Why is it that most horses that steam/drift do so in the last 30 minutes before the race. Is it a/ because people decided that 2 hours ago they didn't want the price because they could afford to wait and then fight with everybody else in the know, or b/ because of how the horse appears on the day just before the race?
Obviously sometimes it is definately a/ where people want to hold their cards to their chest for as long as possible, but in general a horses price moves most due to the appearance and the way it is acting in the mounting yard.
On a different note, the topic actually made me think this was about distance a horse travels just to get to the race, which I think is very important also. A horse travelling 500kms to get to a mediocre race when they live near another track is a pretty good sign that the trainer is confident he has set the horse in the right race. Obviously need to take into account how a horse travels, literally, but something to note I feel when summing up a horses form.
I know personally of a horse of a mate of my old mans, travelled 400km to compete in a lowly race even though there are about 10 meetings within half that distance. I was certainly on it, and it duly saluted by 3 lengths, paying 26.00.. He knew it would win based on its training, and was prepared to go wherever he could to get it in a race while it was flying.
There's a much sneered at old racing add-age.....
....'bigger the field, bigger the certainty'.
Why this is correct, is because big fields produce
a true 'pace of the race' whereas small fields often have
a slow, 'muddling' pace, giving the outsiders more
chance, in what develops into a tail end of race sprint.
Ability to read the pace of the race is a asset
to in-run traders.
Long distance travellers, as an area of study,
is a waste of space, tracks who commonly have few
runners per race used to (maybe still do) subsidise
travel costs. I have never found any credible mileage
in this theory.
|The Following User Says Thank You to Ted For This Useful Post:|
offenbach (18th April 2012)