Results 1 to 7 of 7

Thread: Assessing over/unders bets

  1. #1
    Member
    Join Date
    Jan 2011
    Posts
    55
    Thanks: 1
    Thanked 6 Times in 4 Posts

    Default Assessing over/unders bets

    I would just like to open a discussion on what data you use to analyse whether to take a bet or not with the over/under football goal markets.

    For me personally, I look at the following details:

    1. Amount of games the home team have gone over/under that amount of goals
    2. Amount of games the away team have gone over/under that amount of goals
    3. The number of head to head meetings which have gone over/under that amount of goals

    Does anybody use any different stats, or any additional information?

    Would be interested to hear,

    Cheers

  2. #2
    Bills Mate Ted's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2009
    Posts
    924
    Thanks: 463
    Thanked 431 Times in 230 Posts

    Default

    BadBoy,
    it's all about 'the price' being right. Look at the sat prem games stats, jot down what price high/low U think is value, then look at tha prices
    to see how your guestimates shaped up.

    I have a downer on low prices, either direction, we still have to
    pay 'comm' an absolute 'killer'.

    Keep a log of your 'spadework' after a while, you'll be aware if
    price is out of line.

  3. #3
    Member
    Join Date
    Jan 2011
    Posts
    55
    Thanks: 1
    Thanked 6 Times in 4 Posts

    Default

    Thanks for the reply Ted.

    That is exactly what I do, I work out the probabilities using stats to determine whether a value bet exists.

    Was just wondering if anybody thought there are some crucial stats I am missing in my analysis.

    I suppose you can over analyse things, so I guess what I am using works just fine

  4. #4
    Bills Mate Ted's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2009
    Posts
    924
    Thanks: 463
    Thanked 431 Times in 230 Posts

    Talking

    'Politics' will soon rear it's head, as season nears end. Those just above
    'trapdoor' seek to shore up for safety, with 9 bodies behind ball, it's all
    good fun, as most then go low, but it's the price, anything can go wrong
    ha ha.....

    We will get a few of the usual 'Italian job' draws........

  5. #5
    Veteran jamiedavies02's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Location
    Wigan
    Posts
    247
    Thanks: 37
    Thanked 49 Times in 41 Posts

    Default

    Personally I don't consider how many previous games have gone over/ under. My stats include home for and against and away for and against for the past 60 or so games.

  6. #6
    Novice
    Join Date
    May 2010
    Posts
    10
    Thanks: 1
    Thanked 15 Times in 4 Posts

    Default

    Why bother with boring stats when the spread betting firms have already done that?
    Unless you know something they don't, just take the total goals quote from sportingindex and work out the O/U prices.
    For instance if their total goals spread is 2.5-2.7 you can safely use the mid-price of 2.6 and this would equate to U2.5@1.89, approximately.

  7. #7
    Virgin
    Join Date
    Mar 2018
    Posts
    1
    Thanks: 0
    Thanked 0 Times in 0 Posts

    Default

    Hi
    How does U2.5@1.89 equate to 1.89?

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  

Talented Mavericks Limited
26 Buttercup Close
Corby
Northants
England
NN18 8LB

UK Company # 04872848
UK VAT # 887366268

Facebook TwitterYouTube



Betfair    Betdaq    VISA  Mastercard  American Express  Dinners Club  Discover  PayPal  Skrill