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Thread: Sporting Scenario

  1. #1
    Veteran jamiedavies02's Avatar
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    Default Sporting Scenario

    I thought it would be interesting to hear other peoples view on how they approach different sporting events with a view to trade. For example what stats they consult (if any) and there general approach pre-match.

    (Before I start i'd like to say Im not claiming Im a jack of all trades and Im sure Ive missed key principles of but thats the aim of the thread, to broaden our approach)

    I'll start of with tomorrows Cricket World Cup match:

    England v Ireland

    The very first thing I do is consult the weather forecast.

    The next thing I do is take a look at the overall stats of the venue using Cric Info.

    The average run rate per over is 6.12 in the 50 over format over the last 10 years. My interpretation of this is that your average batting team should acheive a score of (6.12 x 50) 306.

    The highest score over the same time period was 347 and the lowest score in which 50 overs where complete was 169.

    After looking at the venue, I move onto the teams.

    England

    England are currently ranked 5th in the world below Australia, India, South Africa and Sri Lanka.

    England have been poor in the one day form of recent, the dramatic draw with India coming after poor win against minnows Netherlands all this coming after a poor 6-1 series defeat in Australia (all be it after the Ashes success).

    In addition to the above, England have only won 3 of there last 16 matches in India.

    Ireland

    Currently ranked 11th in the world amongst the minnows.

    In the last 5 years there average run rate is a poor 4.62. At face value ther won loss record isn't too bad, winning 28 and losing 27 in tehre last 59 matches. On closer inspection you will see that the games are mostly against fellow minnows and every time they have played of the big 5 in the last 5 years they have been beaten, including 3 out of 3 against England.

    Conclusion

    Despite England recent poor form, I expect there class should be apparent here and they should win quite convincingly.

    After consulting the prices on Betfair, England are 1.03 to win and to me not worth investing in. Given Irelands average Run Per over rate, I do not expect them to get anywhere near the venue average of 306.

    Well thats my research into the game, I know its not the best game review but you get the jist of it. What other principles are there to consider in preparation for a cricket trade? Im talking about any 'background' work you would carry out before the game starts.

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    Veteran westerner's Avatar
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    A sound process but don't rule out scalping at low odds on matches like this.

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    Yeah, if the odds were 1.03 I would see that as a clear lay. Regardless of pretty much anything. What is the worst that could happen? They bet hard and come into 1.01? Big whoop. Upside, is they could easily lose a quick wicket and go out to 1.06, bad start, even go out to 1.20. Massive upside, little downside.
    Didn't watch the match enough, turned on Ireland was 3/86 or something I think. Lost another quick couple of wickets and went on to win the game.

    I would imagine the odds went something like (depending on when the wickets fell), 1.03 open, maybe 1.02 after their innings. Or maybe it was seen that the batting was better than average because of the pitch, maybe they even drifted after posting their score.
    As we know, Ireland went on to win the match. Not sure how big people play here, but easily acceptable to lay 1000 on this match at the start given that your max liability would be 30 dollars. I very much doubt that the odds were too high on Ireland until late in the match, but for so little downside that is the obvious play. Little liability, for potential huge upside.
    England, out of form, and even when in form they don't provide much challenge to anybody , but how much notice do you take when a team scores 330+? Was that a massive score, or do the bowlers get little joy out of the pitch? If it is the pitch, then you can take out some bowling advantage, as all you need is a big innings from somebody. Easy batting, and people can find form from anywhere, even a 30-1 underdog.
    Pretty sure I watched Sri Lanka take on ?Bangladesh? a couple of years ago too, starting at 1.04-1.05 to either go on and lose the match, or at the very least at some point they were definately not favourites. And while it was a long time ago, it has to be said that the number of games I have watched, this is pretty big. Have also seen 2 1.01 shots in a row in the IPL go out past 2.00. One went on to win, the other traded as high as 2.30 from memory.
    So in regards to odds, that is 4 games, break even point would be watching about 275 games. I can pretty much guarantee I haven't watched 50 games in that time, which makes it profitable to lay heavy favs from what I have seen based on such a small sample, but if that can happen, how often will they trade higher. I would imagine plenty enough times.


    Personally, I will look at trading anything. You just need to keep in mind all the possibilities and what it is likely to do to the odds. I even traded the NFL at one point, and while I was going in very small, I had locked in 100 bucks profit in the first quarter, before I realised that I was looking at the wrong teams. Best if you at least know something about the "sport?". Sports trading, while potentially profitable, is also very risky. Risk vs reward and all that.
    Anything can happen, and it needs to be remembered, as anything can happen and can happen all in a row. I have had it all this year, and as such, month 3 into the calendar year, and I am (on average) 2 months away from my year being profitable.

    It is good to be adaptable to different markets, but sometimes it is best to play smaller while you are coming to grips with them... :S

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    Forum Guru PesceLesso's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Temujin View Post
    ...
    I even traded the NFL at one point, and while I was going in very small, I had locked in 100 bucks profit in the first quarter, before I realised that I was looking at the wrong teams.
    ......

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    Quote Originally Posted by PesceLesso View Post
    I think I actually ended the match -50... Hmmmmmmm

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