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Thread: Steep Learning Curve

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    Veteran jamiedavies02's Avatar
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    Default Steep Learning Curve

    Evening.

    As Im sure some of you are I have been lurking around this forum seeking advice for the past few weeks. I have gained some trading knowledge from here as well as other sites and Im going to put it to the test and hope that people on these boards will help me.

    Saturday 22nd January

    Cricket / Hampshire v Winward Islands : Match Odds 22-Jan-11 20:00 22-Jan-11 23:03 -2.75

    The first stage of my journey to took me to the Carribean Twenty20 tournement. The strategy I employed was to lay the batting team and green up after an early wicket. Unfortunately, the early wicket never came. I had the chance to green up for a small profit mainly due to the batting sides poor run rate. However, I waited and waited and eventually the batting side upped the run rate and in turn upped my loss as I eventually traded out.

    Lesson Learned: Do not get greedy, a small profit is still profit and I need to be patient.

    Boxing / McDonnell v Jamoye : Match Odds 22-Jan-11 20:00 22-Jan-11 21:53 1.10

    The next trade was on the televised boxing match. After doing some research I was of the opinion that the two fighters was more evenly matched than the prices suggested. I expected the underdogs price to come in once the bout started. It did and I greened up within the first round.

    Lesson Learned: Knowledge is a powerful tool, got out nice and early and watched the fight knowing i secured a profit regardless


    Sunday 23rd January

    American Football / Green Bay @ Chicago : Match Odds 23-Jan-11 20:00 23-Jan-11 23:15 2.05

    After doing some research I thought that Green Bay where good value in this game. I backed them pre-game and secured a profit before the end of the first quarter.

    Lesson Learned: Again research has paid and I never got to greedy and secured a profit nice and early

    American Football / NY Jets @ Pittsburgh : Match Odds 23-Jan-11 23:30 24-Jan-11 02:50 -2.70

    Again afetr research I thought there was value in the underdog. I backed the Jets pre-game with the hope it would be a close game but that was dashed as the steelers romped to a 20+ point lead. I should have traded out during the early steelers pressure but instead waited and waited.

    Lesson Learned: Know when a trade is going against you and get out and cut your losses and not stay in in the hope it will change

    Monday 24th January

    Soccer / Bolton v Chelsea : Match Odds 24-Jan-11 20:00 24-Jan-11 21:53 -1.63

    I felt this game could be a tight affair to begin with so i backed the draw. Chelsea scored early and I traded out for a loss.

    Lesson Learned: Knowledge will only get you so far, time for a change of approach.

    Before the game I was on another forum and remembered the following comment from one of its users "for what reason would a price move (either way)". A philosophy that I have neglected. With that, i adopted a new practice

    Soccer / Bolton v Chelsea : Over/Under 3.5 Goals 24-Jan-11 20:00 24-Jan-11 21:34 0.24
    Soccer / Bolton v Chelsea : Over/Under 2.5 goals 24-Jan-11 20:00 24-Jan-11 21:16 0.75
    Soccer / Bolton v Chelsea : Over/Under 1.5 Goals 24-Jan-11 20:00 24-Jan-11 20:44 0.66


    My thought was simple. When a goal is scored, the under x.5 goals price will peak before gradually falling (unless of course another goal is scored). I decided to take advantage of this. As soon as the 1st, 2nd and 3rd goals where scored, I backed under 1.5, 2.5 and 3.5 respectively. I then waited for the price to fall and greened up and eventually more or less recovered my loss on the 12X market. Obvisously this market has its flaws, but its something I am going to work on.

    Any advice/ suggestions?

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    Great post, really helpful in identifying a strategy, or more pertinently what actually constitutes a strategy. I'd love to know what % of your bank you are willing to risk per trade and had you predefined exit points before you started the trades ?

    Another query regarding your "research", is this freely available opinion, a la net or are these particular sports something that you have a keen knowledge of ?

  4. #3
    nigelbleddfa
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    Could make loads of comments but will settle for just a few. Why did you back the draw in the Bolton v Chelsea game ? The overwhelming volume of money would have been on a Chelsea win and, even if there had been no goal for 40+ minutes the odds would barely have shifted as most people would still have expected Chelsea to win.

    Many people lay the draw in the hope of an early goal. Almost always, if the underdog scores first, the draw price barely moves as the majority still expect the top dog to win.

    Nothing wrong with looking at lots of different sports but I wouldn't actually trade them all at your stage of development.

    You'll probably learn more from your losses than your wins. Keep your stakes low so that you have fun even if you lose. As has been said countless times on other threads, just look at the markets until you are sick of seeing them.

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    Quote Originally Posted by PC0845 View Post
    Another query regarding your "research", is this freely available opinion, a la net or are these particular sports something that you have a keen knowledge of ?
    Just my own analysis of the game

    At the minute Im using £5 stakes

    Quote Originally Posted by nigelbleddfa View Post
    Could make loads of comments but will settle for just a few. Why did you back the draw in the Bolton v Chelsea game ? The overwhelming volume of money would have been on a Chelsea win and, even if there had been no goal for 40+ minutes the odds would barely have shifted as most people would still have expected Chelsea to win.

    Many people lay the draw in the hope of an early goal. Almost always, if the underdog scores first, the draw price barely moves as the majority still expect the top dog to win.

    Nothing wrong with looking at lots of different sports but I wouldn't actually trade them all at your stage of development.

    You'll probably learn more from your losses than your wins. Keep your stakes low so that you have fun even if you lose. As has been said countless times on other threads, just look at the markets until you are sick of seeing them.
    As they say, you live and learn. Ive learned that with regards the price of the draw which Is why I got stung by the goal. Ill be testing a few more strategies Ive picked up and looking at different angles that I normally look at. And Ill being closely watching the markets reaction to certain happenings

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    Quote Originally Posted by nigelbleddfa View Post
    Could make loads of comments but will settle for just a few. Why did you back the draw in the Bolton v Chelsea game ? The overwhelming volume of money would have been on a Chelsea win and, even if there had been no goal for 40+ minutes the odds would barely have shifted as most people would still have expected Chelsea to win.
    That is another example of why us newbies need you and your opinions Nige, I wouldn't even have considered the overwhelming volume of money on the Chelsea win. In hindsight it is obviously something I should have considered in my previous trades, yet, due to genetically imposed dimness I would have completely ignored it.

    Do you actually have a checklist of relevant factors when considering a trade or do experienced traders take the multiple qualifying factors into account on a subconscious level when making a decision ?

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    nigelbleddfa
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    I have some pretty daft ideas myself and all will know, if they have been here a while, that I cannot resist backing Over 2.5 goals if the back odds are greater than about 2.3. I cannot understand how anybody, in any game, can offer such good odds against three or more goals being scored in that game. Nobody has a "crystal ball" though you, living in Waterford, could possibly get one

    As an example, today some fools offered 2.74 against Over 2.5 goals in the Uzbekhistan v Australia game. What can have possessed them to be so bloody daft ? I took the price and traded out after the second goal. Final score, 0 - 4.

    ( 2.74 is a silly price in any game pre-kickoff )

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    Quote Originally Posted by nigelbleddfa View Post
    Nobody has a "crystal ball" though you, living in Waterford, could possibly get one
    Sadly Nigel, if I need a Waterford Crystal ball I will have to get one from Eastern Europe now. All we have left is a visitor centre in the place of an industry that employed 2,000 people. Some of the grief was self inflicted (can't beat a strong union you know), still sad nonetheless.

    Same story all over the world.

    (Christ, I only now got the "crystal clear" reference in the reply to one of my previous posts, dumbass I am).
    Last edited by PC0845; 25th January 2011 at 09:11 PM. Reason: Just got the joke in a previous post (2 weeks later)

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    Another startegy Im looking to employ, keeping my ear to the ground with regards news. Absolute gold mine.

    An example: I was at work today (I work in the betting industry) and was on the racing post website as news broke that Pandorama was 50/50 to run in the Gold Cup. I checked his odds on Betfair (though unfortunately cant risk betting as it consitutes gross misconduct) and his lay odds where around the 15/16 mark. He can now be backed at 25s!!

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    Quote Originally Posted by nigelbleddfa View Post
    I cannot resist backing Over 2.5 goals if the back odds are greater than about 2.3.
    Conversely Nigel, if the odds are >= 2.3 for greater for UNDER 2.5 goals , does that tempt you ?

    If not, is there any particular reason other than an early goal result in a major odds shift ?


    PS, sorry if I seen to be stalking you, I need to learn!

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    Quote Originally Posted by PC0845 View Post
    Sadly Nigel, if I need a Waterford Crystal ball I will have to get one from Eastern Europe now. All we have left is a visitor centre in the place of an industry that employed 2,000 people. Some of the grief was self inflicted (can't beat a strong union you know), still sad nonetheless.

    Same story all over the world.

    (Christ, I only now got the "crystal clear" reference in the reply to one of my previous posts, dumbass I am).

    I'm from Eastern Europe but i cant find here any crystal ball , if i found anyone i will let you know

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    nigelbleddfa
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    I nearly always back Over 2.5 Goals if odds are over 2.3 at kick off and I can watch the game on TV.

    I am prepared to back as low as 1.6 at kickoff if I am totally convinced that there will be goals but this is unusual. Chelsea at 2 last night was a brilliant price and was never in danger of losing.

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    Monday 25th January

    Soccer / Blackpool v Man Utd : Match Odds 25-Jan-11 19:30 25-Jan-11 21:31 2.85
    Soccer / Blackpool v Man Utd : Over/Under 1.5 Goals 25-Jan-11 19:30 25-Jan-11 20:16 0.47


    I started with a slightly tweaked tactic that I employed in last nights match. I backed under 1.5 goals at 0-0 (as opposed to under 0.5), this would ensure that I would lose my full stake should there be an early goal. Greened out about a minute before Blackpool took the lead. Which leads me to the most stupid trade I have ever placed. As soon as Blackpool took the lead, I layed them. I have no idea why it was just impulse. Things got worse as they doubled there lead and I was staring at a monsterous loss! I (stupidly) let the bet ride and luckily managed to green out for £3 at 2-2.

    Lesson Learned: I sensibly adapted my approach and potentially limited my loss in the goals market. DO NOT MAKE STUPID SPARE OF THE MOMENT CALLS AND DIVE INTO TRADES, I GOT LUCKY AND COULD EASILY HAVE BEEN STARING AT A HEFTY LOSS

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    nigelbleddfa
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    I don't understand the first sentence and am unclear as to what your first bet was. Ignoring that bet, and assuming that you had no losses at that stage, laying Blackpool at reduced odds would seem to have been very sensible if your stake had not been higher than you could afford to lose. Laying them again after they had scored their second goal would surely have been at a low liability and, having regard to the final score, a masterstroke - a big return for a low liability.

    You have to be prepared to lose, you cannot win every bet. And, necessity will force you to dive in at times, but you need more experience of seeing markets and their reactions to events before you start doing this.

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    Quote Originally Posted by nigelbleddfa View Post
    I don't understand the first sentence and am unclear as to what your first bet was.
    The first bet I placed was pre-game and I backed under 1.5 goals with the intention of going in-play, made a few ticks and then layed it of for a small green.

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    [QUOTE=jamiedavies02;42225]Monday 25th January

    Soccer / Blackpool v Man Utd : Match Odds 25-Jan-11 19:30 25-Jan-11 21:31 2.85
    Soccer / Blackpool v Man Utd : Over/Under 1.5 Goals 25-Jan-11 19:30 25-Jan-11 20:16 0.47


    I started with a slightly tweaked tactic that I employed in last nights match. I backed under 1.5 goals at 0-0 (as opposed to under 0.5), this would ensure that I would lose my full stake should there be an early goal. Greened out about a minute before Blackpool took the lead. Which leads me to the most stupid trade I have ever placed. As soon as Blackpool took the lead, I layed them. I have no idea why it was just impulse. Things got worse as they doubled there lead and I was staring at a monsterous loss! I (stupidly) let the bet ride and luckily managed to green out for £3 at 2-2.
    I tend to agree with nigel,on the basis of laying Blackpool for an accepted liability at the time of thier first goal.Allowing the possibility to lever your position should a second goal(as it did)go against you.My reasoning for this would have been that at 1-0 lots of opinions would have been for man-u comeback .Assuming you didnt get too heavy on the lay, the opportunity to get your stakes correct with a further lay after the second goal would have allowed you to get out relatively safe as the time remaining would have held the price for a decent amount of time.You would have also had the benefit of the half time period to do so.While no master i like to get involved with these low risk opportunities myself,just figure out your max liability ,put the lays in proportion and find a decent strike rate.

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    Quote Originally Posted by nigelbleddfa View Post
    I nearly always back Over 2.5 Goals if odds are over 2.3 at kick off and I can watch the game on TV.
    Hey Nigel, another final question, do you have a predefined exit time or tick offset you use to get out if the trade is going against you and there are no goals scored. Do you adhere to this or allow your instinct to intervene, dependant on the ebb and flow of the game ?

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    Quote Originally Posted by TRADER68 View Post
    I tend to agree with nigel,on the basis of laying Blackpool for an accepted liability at the time of thier first goal.Allowing the possibility to lever your position should a second goal(as it did)go against you.My reasoning for this would have been that at 1-0 lots of opinions would have been for man-u comeback .Assuming you didnt get too heavy on the lay, the opportunity to get your stakes correct with a further lay after the second goal would have allowed you to get out relatively safe as the time remaining would have held the price for a decent amount of time.You would have also had the benefit of the half time period to do so.While no master i like to get involved with these low risk opportunities myself,just figure out your max liability ,put the lays in proportion and find a decent strike rate.
    Please can you explain this abit clearer with regard the 2nd goal going against me and levering my position?

  23. #18
    nigelbleddfa
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    When you initially layed Blackpool you must have been thinking that Man Utd would make some sort of comeback. I don't know what price you layed at but your liabilities could not have been very big unless you were using large stakes. So, if you felt that Man Utd were going to improve , you could have increased your lay bet,after the second Blackpool goal, at a still lower price, in the hope of such a revival. There was plenty of time left. As it happens, you would have made big profits if you had used "leverage".

    This is quite a technical term and I prefer to use the term "chasing". If, for example, I see a game with a team like Arsenal playing and the score is 0 - 0 at half time, despite the fact that nobody can understand why they are not winning by at least three goals and they have hit the woodwork five times, I increase my Over 2.5 goal bet at the much greater odds available on the market at that time.

    The example I have given immediately above is almost the opposite to what you might have done in the Blackpool game. In the one game, there was scope for increased laying, in my game there was scope for increased backing based on our judgements on how each game would turn out.

    Neither would have involved huge liabilities. The layer in the Blackpool game would have taken advantage of the low lay price, I would take advantage of the greatly increased back price.

    In one game with Arsenal I was so convinced that there would be goals that I stuck my entire bank on it at half time. God bless them ! They scored after 27 seconds and I was jumping up and down

    ( If they hadn't scored I would have jumped out taking a loss and retaining most of my bank .)

    As said above, "leverage" is a technical term and used somewhat loosely in forums like this. Please see

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leverage_(finance)

    and similar things.

    My simplest explanation is :

    Imagine you are in TESCO doing a big shop. You notice that fillet steak is on offer at £ 2 per pound, very good value, so you buy some for your dinner. You finish shopping in TESCO and pop into ASDA on the way home. Here, fillet steak is £1 per pound, very, very cheap. So, you buy some and stick it in your freezer. All makes perfect sense as long as you like steak

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    cheap ones usually are outdated
    справка по The Geeks Toy на русском »» здеся ««

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    Quote Originally Posted by nigelbleddfa View Post
    When you initially layed Blackpool you must have been thinking that Man Utd would make some sort of comeback. I don't know what price you layed at but your liabilities could not have been very big unless you were using large stakes. So, if you felt that Man Utd were going to improve , you could have increased your lay bet,after the second Blackpool goal, at a still lower price, in the hope of such a revival. There was plenty of time left. As it happens, you would have made big profits if you had used "leverage".

    This is quite a technical term and I prefer to use the term "chasing". If, for example, I see a game with a team like Arsenal playing and the score is 0 - 0 at half time, despite the fact that nobody can understand why they are not winning by at least three goals and they have hit the woodwork five times, I increase my Over 2.5 goal bet at the much greater odds available on the market at that time.

    The example I have given immediately above is almost the opposite to what you might have done in the Blackpool game. In the one game, there was scope for increased laying, in my game there was scope for increased backing based on our judgements on how each game would turn out.

    Neither would have involved huge liabilities. The layer in the Blackpool game would have taken advantage of the low lay price, I would take advantage of the greatly increased back price.

    In one game with Arsenal I was so convinced that there would be goals that I stuck my entire bank on it at half time. God bless them ! They scored after 27 seconds and I was jumping up and down

    ( If they hadn't scored I would have jumped out taking a loss and retaining most of my bank .)

    As said above, "leverage" is a technical term and used somewhat loosely in forums like this. Please see

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leverage_(finance)

    and similar things.

    My simplest explanation is :

    Imagine you are in TESCO doing a big shop. You notice that fillet steak is on offer at £ 2 per pound, very good value, so you buy some for your dinner. You finish shopping in TESCO and pop into ASDA on the way home. Here, fillet steak is £1 per pound, very, very cheap. So, you buy some and stick it in your freezer. All makes perfect sense as long as you like steak
    So what your saying is, that despite going 2-0 behind, if I thought they would still come back and not lose then i should increase my lay at the reduced odds? Obvisously to a liability Im comfortable with. What kind of exit strategy would you employ should it continue to go against you?

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