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Thread: Horse Racing in OZ

  1. #561
    Forum Addict Charles49's Avatar
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    Morning all. Another warm day here today as summer continues. Lots of Group racing today with Australia's top horse in Winx running at Randwick where light rain is expected.
    Here are todays selections:

    DOOMBEN:
    R5 no 1 Cyclinder Beach won $4.20

    RANDWICK:
    R1 no 6 Most Exalted
    R5 no 6 Snippets Land Scratched.
    R6 no 1 Global Glamour. 3rd....Omei Sword 2nd is the danger
    R7 no 9 Winx. Won...back Hartnell for the place as its better value than backing the fav.
    R8 no 6 Flippant 3rd

    CAULFIELD:
    R2 no Derryn.3rd...with Benz Won $5 the danger
    R4 no 8 Savanna Amour Won $7 Less deductions for late scr.
    R6 no Humidor...2nd..Tom Melbourne was a big effort last start so each way chance here
    R7 no 13 Tulip
    R8 no 4 Kaepernick ...is a a good chance at around $20.

    LAY BETS:
    Ascot R1 no 1 Tarquin ShadowRan unplaced. Lay bet won
    MR7 no 11 Catchy Won $4.50 Lay bet lost
    Mr9 No 2 Silent Sedition Won $1.95. Lay bet lost
    BR4 no 5 NiccanovaWon $2. Lay bet lost

    BETFAIR BSP Estimate for today is 78.5 Actual is 86.5 so bet is Unders. Unders won

    Cheers n Beers
    Last edited by Charles49; 25th February 2017 at 08:56 PM.

  2. #562
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    Hey Ned

    Long time no see or post, Hows it going?

    Was doing a bit ordinary myself so I decided to come over here and check out your LAY bets, and followed... bugger always next week

    Tony is coming out April i think for more Training courses that he does, he asked about you, I give him your email, I said we should catch up for a beer, but he is only coming up to Lower end of Gold Coast, so see how it goes.

    Looks like a lonely old place in here, see if I can get back to some of the old Saturday Selections

    dags
    Last edited by dags; 25th February 2017 at 07:48 AM. Reason: lol mentioned someones name which got blanked out

  3. #563
    Forum Addict Charles49's Avatar
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    Hi Dags,

    Great to hear from you again.
    Probably had the worst day yesterday with the lays so wasnt a good time to follow. I do need to look at these as they were a nice earn for a long period however they have been very ordinary in recent times.
    Love to catch up with you for a beer or two anytime. Bronco's maybe??
    Let me know when you are free,
    And yes it is quiet in here so you are most welcome to post your selections on here anytime and give the punters that do visit here a taste of your expertise!!
    Kind regards and best wishes.

  4. #564
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    Morning all. Last weeks Lay bets let us down badly with some unlucky results. Thats racing unfortunately so its onwards and upwards today. There are plenty of black type races today so the quality of racing today should be good. Randwick unfortunately will be a heavy 9 track and thats bound to produce a few rough results if history is anything to go by.
    Lets hope we can find you some palatable results.

    RANDWICK:
    R1 no 4 From Within
    R2 no 4 Invader 2nd
    R3 no 11 Ma Tante
    R4 no 6 Hieroglyphics 2nd
    R5 no 5 Japonisme
    R7 no 5 Comin Through.3rd....have a saver on Man From Uncle
    R8 no 5 Tsaritsa
    R9 no 2 Kinema4th

    FLEMINGTON:
    R2 no 2 Heatherly Won
    R4 no 2 Jerilderie Letter
    R6 no 4 Charlie Boy ...each way at odds (currently $14)
    R8 no 4 De Little Engine 4th

    EAGLE FARM:
    R3 no 1 Houtzen Won
    R8 no 4 Bound For Love

    GOLD COAST:
    R1 no 5 Scarlett Hussie...3rd....Danger is Trainers Pocket

    LAY BETS:
    MR3 no 1 Madeenaty Started odds on fav. Ran 2nd. Lay bet won
    R4 no 8 Portman Started short priced fav. Ran 2nd. Lay bet won
    R7 no 4 Hey Doc. Started $3.00 fav. Won. Lay bet lost

    BETFAIR BSP Estimate is 99.5 Actual is 83.5 so bet today is Overs.

    Cheers n Beers
    Last edited by Charles49; 4th March 2017 at 07:14 AM.

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    Last week we placed our faith at Randwick in arguably the worlds best jockey in Joe Moreica to produce some winners for us. The best he could do was a couple of seconds and a third. The following day he returned to Shatin and rode 8 winners on the card.!!
    Plenty of high quality racing in Sydney and Melbourne today with the features being the Group one Newmarket Handicap and the Group one Australian Cup. I'm going to give Joe one more chance today at Flemington as he seems to do reasonably well in Melbourne races.
    Here are todays selections:

    ROSEHILL:
    R2 no 1 Dothraki 2nd
    R5 no 9 Antonio Guiseppi
    R6 no 3 Into Orbit....Foxplay Won is the obvious danger
    R7 no 14 Omei Sword
    R8 no 6 Cylinder Beach......racing well in Brisbane and deserves a chance here. Each way odds around 10/1.

    FLEMINGTON:

    R1 no 9 Cannyescent
    R5 no 2 I Am A Star. Won $2.10
    R6 no 9 Circular Won $3.90
    R7 no 2 Speith
    R8 no 1 Stratum Star
    R9 no 11 Super Fun.

    LAY BETS:
    SR9 no 4 Veladero Ran unplaced. Lay bet won

    BETFAIR BSP estimate is 85.5 Actual is 101.5 so bet today is Unders. Unders won.

    Cheers n Beers
    Last edited by Charles49; 11th March 2017 at 06:46 AM.

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    Hi Ned, sorry missed last week had a kids birthday party on

    Today I like

    Rosehill
    SR1 3 SPECTROSCOPE Won $4.50
    SR5 9 ANTONIO GIUSEPPE 2nd

    Flemington
    MR2 10 HURSLEY 2nd
    MR4 3 ESHTIRAAK
    MR5 2 I AM A STARWon $2.10

    What is that BSP estimate you have posted?
    Last edited by Charles49; 17th March 2017 at 11:48 PM.

  7. #567
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    Morning all. Brisbane is flooded with sunshine and heaps of it whilst poor old Sydney is flooded with water and heaps of that too. Thanks to Dags for posting last saturday...I have only just noticed it so apologies to Dags for not commenting earlier. Hope you enjoyed your kids birthday party.!!
    Very Heavy track at Rosehill today. Its rated a Heavy 9 but no surprise if it gets worse or even if they struggle to complete the meeting. Program is outstanding with plenty of Group and black type racing.
    Dags, the BSP estimate is my early assessment of what the total of the Betfair starting prices will be for the Flemington card. I then compare that with the actual market and bet either Under or Over the market which normally commences at even money. The market is attached to Race 1 at Flemington and you can find it by putting BSP Index into the search box and it will pop up usually after about 9.30am.
    Here are todays selections and a warning that the track at Rosehill will be impossible today so bet cautiously.
    ROSEHILL:
    R4 no 3 Stratum Star
    R5 no 8 Winx Won
    R6 no 2 Gingernuts.Won $7.60.....love the name...New Zealander with a tip top chance here.
    R7 no 9 Catchy. ....won last start from an impossible position.

    FLEMINGTON:
    R2 no 3 Theanswemyfriend Won $2.10
    R4 no 1 Arctic Angel
    R5 no 2 Palentino Won $6.20
    R8 no 9 Zebrinz 3rd

    LAY BETS:
    SR7 no 15 Houtzen Started Fav. Ran unplaced. Lay bet won

    BSP Estimate is 100.5. Actual is 85.5 so bet today is OVERS.


    Cheers n Beers
    Last edited by Charles49; 18th March 2017 at 06:14 AM.

  8. #568
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    Today I like

    Rosehill
    R3 1 TACTICAL ADVANTAGE 3rd
    R4 5 THE UNITED STATES 3rd
    R5 8 WINX Won
    R10 13 POMELO Won $3.40

    Flemington
    R2 3 THEANSWERMYFRIEND Won $2.10
    R5 6 TOSEN STARDOM 2nd

    With all the bookie bonuses at the moment, make sure you play the Money Back for a place specials

    Last week I had 2 wins 2 placed, 1 loss, so would have bee a good day

    Cheers Ned, good Luck, I like that BSP INDEX, is it worth doubling up after a loss each week
    or play the Even money each week and get better than 52% strike rate
    Last edited by Charles49; 18th March 2017 at 07:11 AM.

  9. #569
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    Hi Dags,
    Good advice re the bonuses..they are a nice addition to the kitty. The BSP Index is just a bit of fun for me. I just throw a red lobster on them and let it run. You could run a little system here like the Martingale but it would turn nasty if you had a run of outs.
    I'll have a look at past results but I suspect the number of overs and the number of unders to date are roughly around the same.

    Cheers

  10. #570
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    Morning all. Well we have just moved from a month of 30plus degree hot and sunny weather to a week of rain. Must say its nice to see the lawns all green again and our swimming pool now back to full. Group and black type racing is at Rosehill today where the feature race is the BMW worth a cool AUD $1.5m. Melbourne racing heads off to Mornington today and if past results are any indication it will be a tough day there if you are on the punt. Hope we see Dags back tipping on here again today. He has a very high place percentage and last week his win strike rate was 50% whilst place wise it was 100%.
    Not sure where the Betfair BSP will be today so I'll do the estimate based on the assumption it will be at Mornington.
    ROSEHILL:
    R2 no 2 Impending 3rd
    R3 no 3 Astronomos 2nd
    R4 no 7 Spectroscope Won $3.50
    R5 no 3 Jon Snow Won $3.50
    R6 no 6 Humidor 2nd with a rough place chance to Lasquieti Spirit at odds.

    MORNINGTON:
    R4 no 2 Toga Picta 4th
    R5 no 6 Backstreet Lover 4th
    R7 no 6 Boom Time

    LAY BETS:
    MR 4 no 1 Eshtrraak Won $3.10. Lay bet lost
    R5 no 1 Strike Force Started Fav. ran 2nd. Lay bet Won
    SR5 no 1 Prized Icon Ran 2nd. Lay Bet won

    Betfair BSP Estimate is 80.5 so todays bet at Mornington is UndersUnders won

    Cheers n Beers
    Last edited by Charles49; 26th March 2017 at 05:39 AM.

  11. #571
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    Sorry for the late post, house full of sick kids, me included with some sort of flu.

    Some of these may have already run

    This is what I like

    Rosehill
    R1 3 ASTORIA (already Run) 2ndf
    R3 3 ASTRONOMOS (already Run)
    R4 7 SPECTROSCOPE 2nd
    R5 2 JON SNOW Won $3.50
    R7 2 FOXPLAY

    Mornington
    R2 5 MILES OF KRISHAN (already Run) 2nd
    R4 2 TOGA PICTA 4th
    R7 3 THE GOLD TRAIL4th
    Don't forget to use he bookies that offer cash back for the place
    Last edited by Charles49; 26th March 2017 at 05:42 AM.

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