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Thread: Setting yourself daily targets

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    Member TonyK's Avatar
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    Default Setting yourself daily targets

    Probably frowned upon in here but thought I'd ask anyway

    Advice for something like this? Do any of you guys do it, and if so, successfully? What sort of staking plan should be adopted for such an approach to trading? For example, starting bank of 100 euro, 2.5% per day, after 30 days you should double your bank. Obviously profits won't be made every day so what happens the following day - do you just for for the 2.5% again? Also, what sort of max liability should I be looking at?

    The appeal to me is the idea that you've made your profit and can go off and do something else (or if you made your loss you're not chasing or whatever...).

    Looking forward to hearing your thoughts on this, thanks.

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    Forum Addict neeeel's Avatar
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    I dont think anything is frowned on in here ( except cockroaches)

    I dont have set targets, although I do have an amount by which I decide whether its been a good day or not(maybe I shouldnt, its totally arbitrary and probably not that helpful). With losses, I dont have a stop loss, but if I feel I have been affected too much by the losses then I will stop, or take a break

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    Member TonyK's Avatar
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    I think that's part of the problem for me, I don't handle the losses well. Maybe I should start using Betfair's max liability for the week feature?

    Just seems to me that I'm spending the majority of my day betting/trading and leaving out other things that I enjoy doing...

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    I think setting daily targets can be mentally stressful. In the same way setting per race targets can be due to high volatility [anyone read 'fooled by randomness'? excellent book with a material relevant here.] Summarised is that if every race [event] has a probability of winning 50.02% [Figures taken from example to show small edge, hopefully your edge is greater] then checking every second will result in 50.02% of achieving goal. Checking every hour 51.3% every month 67% every year 93%. As time increases the noise decreases and the winning edge becomes apparent. While we should have a higher edge than someone trading stocks it is not that huge. Once you take into account the theory that loses can hurt at least twice as much as wins we see alot of 'stress' and poor feedback on our performance the shorter time scale we use.

    I try not to set goals that are anything shorter than weekly, preferably monthly, although I probably subconcsiously divide these into a 'daily rate' I expect. i.e. make £X this week becomes make £X/7 today. I try not to be annoyed if I miss the daily rate.

    Problems with daily targets NY cab Drivers:
    '...An excellent example of this problem comes from a
    study of New York City cab drivers. This study answers the age-old question of why it is so hard
    to get a cab on a rainy day (Camerer, Babcock, Loewenstein, & Thaler, 1997). Most people
    blame demand: When it is raining, more people hail cabs than when the weather is clear. But as
    it turns out, supply is another important culprit. As a day progresses, cabs start disappearing
    more quickly from Manhattan streets on rainy days than on sunny days. Why? Because of the specific, daily goals that most cab drivers set: a goal to earn double the amount it costs them to
    rent out their cabs for a 12-hour shift. On rainy days, cabbies make money more quickly than on
    sunny days (because demand is indeed higher), hit their daily goal sooner, and then they go home
    (the problem of goals as ceilings). This finding flies in the face of the economic tenet of wage
    elasticity, which predicts that people should work more hours on days when they can earn more
    money and less on days when they earn less. If NYC taxi drivers used a longer time horizon
    (perhaps weekly or monthly), kept track of indicators of increased demand (e.g., rain or special
    events), and ignored their typical daily goal, they could increase their overall wages, decrease the
    overall time they spend working, and improve the welfare of drenched New Yorkers.'

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    Forum Addict neeeel's Avatar
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    handling losses, and taking them when needed to rather than letting things run, is the most important part of trading and if you cant do it then you will never make money.

    From what I have seen, you started out making a large amount of money over a short time, and so havent learned the basics, I dont know how much of your bank you are using, but if things go wrong a couple of times ur bank can disappear very quickly. take a step back, decide on a strategy that isnt going to wipe your bank, and stick to it. if you do that, it will also be easier to take the losses when they come around.

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    no set amount, as some one else said any green is good !

    take control of your losse's and let the profits take control of themselves, if anything have a set amount that your willing to lose a day, hit that and stop.

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    Quote Originally Posted by TonyK View Post
    Probably frowned upon in here but thought I'd ask anyway

    Advice for something like this? Do any of you guys do it, and if so, successfully? What sort of staking plan should be adopted for such an approach to trading? For example, starting bank of 100 euro, 2.5% per day, after 30 days you should double your bank. Obviously profits won't be made every day so what happens the following day - do you just for for the 2.5% again? Also, what sort of max liability should I be looking at?

    The appeal to me is the idea that you've made your profit and can go off and do something else (or if you made your loss you're not chasing or whatever...).

    Looking forward to hearing your thoughts on this, thanks.
    I think if you're doing this full time or as your main income you need to have some idea of your expected targets and reach them otherwise it becomes a bit pointless and you may as well get a job that pays more. But daily targets are very unrealistic as so much can change from day to day even the number of meetings could throw you off track. Stopping when you've hit a target is counter productive as there's always some days we're in the 'zone' and can't lose so you'd miss so many opportunities stopping early just the same as you would by setting some loss to call it quits. Obviously some days things just don't go right and you need to know when to stop if you're not in the right frame of mind for it or if a big loss might set you on the dreaded chase.

    At the moment I keep a record of my daily , rolling 7 day, rolling 30 day and year to date pnl and rarely if ever look at the pnl throughout the day and the balance is always turned off on my software. I used to update the figures daily but now probably load the bethistory into it every 3 or 4 days or so.I found it helped by taking the pressure of me aiming for certain amounts and as long as my rolling monthly figure is OK I don't feel the need to try and catch up bad days etc as things do even out over the month.

    You need to remember there are so many races/matches etc things will even out over a month if your strategy is sound, continually looking at the pnl will only put unneccesary pressure on you whereas a couple of good days could easily bring that monthly total back on track.

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    Circumstances change every day, you never know how easy a day will be or what you have to face. Just set yourself the target of being as professional as you possibly can and that will give you the best chance of getting the most possible for you out of the day, whatever it may bring.

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    Quote Originally Posted by neeeel View Post
    handling losses, and taking them when needed to rather than letting things run, is the most important part of trading and if you cant do it then you will never make money.

    From what I have seen, you started out making a large amount of money over a short time, and so havent learned the basics, I dont know how much of your bank you are using, but if things go wrong a couple of times ur bank can disappear very quickly. take a step back, decide on a strategy that isnt going to wipe your bank, and stick to it. if you do that, it will also be easier to take the losses when they come around.
    Yep, true, still learning. Discipline is an issue so I'm going to have to address that! Seriously, I started off trading and then ended up gambling

    no set amount, as some one else said any green is good !

    take control of your losse's and let the profits take control of themselves, if anything have a set amount that your willing to lose a day, hit that and stop.
    I would typically have a set amount to lose in my head each day but like I said, discipline is a problem. And it probably won't help if I start using the max loss per week feature on Betfair...



    Thanks MF and bazbaz - What sort of liability to you look at each day if you don't mind me asking?

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    The only way I can honestly answer your question is to say that I just don't think in those terms whatsoever. The only 'liability' I have that I to a certain extent control depends on the size of the stakes I use, but the size of the stakes I'm using is determined by how much I think the market can take without overdoing it. Personally it sounds to me like you're caught up in the kind of thinking that a lot of people who come from gambling backgrounds are used to. All markets are different, some are most risky than others, and what you do is governed by what you see in the market and what particular strategy you are using personally. If you are worried about losses then just use the £2 minimum stakes. If you don't yet have an edge then you should be doing that anyway. Once you have found an edge and have lots of experience of the markets, then you can start to play around with different stakes / size banks until you find something that is optimum for you. But at this stage I think you would be far better off concentrating on the mechanics of the markets and trying to find an edge rather than how to manage your cash. A lot of people do this and question what stakes they should use too early. It's like a blind man with no canvas wanting to learn to paint asking questions about which paint brushes are best to use! First restore your sight

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    Widely asked question, which I have answered many times, but here goes.

    Do you have an edge?

    If you can honestly answer yes to that, then there is no such thing as daily targets, as far as money is concerned. Profits will come. You have an edge after all.
    If you have an edge, then why would you stop trading for the day? What relevance does a day have in the scheme of things? Races are races are they not? Why not have a target for an hour? Or 25 minutes? 37 minutes and 42 second goal?
    They are all irrelevant time scales. If you are trading full time, your goal should be to profit at the end of your session. For me, the end of my session is the last trade I ever make. The start, was the first one.

    Your goal at the start of each days trading, should merely be to trade until your mind is not 100% up for it, or until a predetermined time where you have other plans, whichever comes first. If your mind is not 100% due to your later plans, then you should stop. If you lose the plot after losing, then you should probably stop (not just for the day).

    Sure, I have expectations on what I wish to achieve. I have a yearly goal, but that is just to keep me interested. My last yearly goal I broke with 5 months to go. Why stop? I have my average daily profit recorded, which I would like to keep over a certain level, and actually increase that, but to stop when you have an edge will just cost you money.

    Why settle with 100 a day, if you can make 200? Why settle with 200 if you can make 400? etc etc etc. Opportunity to do this may not last forever, in fact I am almost positive it won't, so get in make your money, then retire on the beach. Don't spend the rest of your life settling, while the rest of us are lazing around in the tropics.

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    I don't have daily targets, but I have loose weekly and monthly targets.

    My weekly target is the amount my bank would be at the end of the week if I made 3% compounded each day.

    My monthly target, I actually have two: my "real" monthly target of increasing my bankroll by 50%, and my "nice-to-reach" target which is what it would be if I made 3% compunded each day on it :-)

    My "real" target is one that I have played with the numbers on, and is enough to live on if/when I go full-time. The "3% Compunded" target would be extremely nice to achieve, though I have only done that once (doing it part time)

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