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Thread: could somebody explain?

  1. #1
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    Default could somebody explain?

    hi
    I am from slovakia and I´ve just met with a problem
    after I backed a horse the late scratch and the temporary suspension came and everything went blank. Ok I have met with this situation before but this time, after the market was available again, I was all in red numbers, I had to take the loss 15euros (which, considering myself a newbie is enough) than I checked the betfair profit and loss a there was stated I backed at 2.1 or something like that and layed at 2.7. But I am sure I didn´t backed at 2.1 as I am always very carefull when it is so low. But unfortunately I can´t prove it.
    My question is-is it possible after one horse is removed the betfair somehow change the stakes given? or am I just going crazy and I backed at 2.1 being sure I did it 2.5 or something like that?
    The same happened yesterday but fortunately with the profit
    Help? please

  2. #2
    Director of Product Development & Quality Assurance Leonthefixer's Avatar
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    What happened was that you backed it then the Withdrawal happened and the Reduction Factor (RF) was applied to the back bet.

    So for example you backed at 2.5 but then BF did the RF and it reduced your odds. This will have shown up in the matched bets.

    You then went on to lay at the higher price giving you a loss.

    You need to be aware of any Withdrawals that have happened but Betfair have not yet removed from the market.

    I am guessing this happened on a US racing market?

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    Yes - US racing market
    could you please explain or give a link where can I learn something about the reduction factor so that I understand it?
    Yesterday, when I profitted from the situtation I just thought that as the favorit got scratched, people were trading at a lower rate because logically other horses had higher possibility to win. Hmm I was mistaken.
    Another question If I can-Is it possible to find out about the withdrawals somewhere else than from the live video? (just because I was used to turn on the video just a few minutes before the start of the race)
    Thank you

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    Director of Product Development & Quality Assurance Leonthefixer's Avatar
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    Ok here is how the Reduction Factor will work:

    ~ We are trading Horse A in the WIN market

    ~ Horse B has been withdrawn but not removed from the market by Betfair

    ~ Horse B has a Reduction Factor (RF) of 20%

    ~ We back horse A at 5.0

    ~ This actually means we have backed horse A at 4.0 as 5.0 minus 20% = 4.0

    ~ If we lay Horse A at 4.5 now for a green profit we will be okay as the 4.5 is actually 3.60 as 4.5 minus 20% = 3.60

    ~ So if BF now remove Horse B, both our Back and lay odds are reduced by 20% and everything is okay.



    ~ HOWEVER, if we have not laid Horse A before they removed Horse B we need to be aware of the RF and what it means to our back bet:


    ~ The RF will be applied to the Back bet so we will now have backed it at 4.0

    ~ If we were to do as before and lay at 4.5 we would now be in a loss position as our back bet is now at odds of 4.0 and not the original 5.0.

    ~ So we now need to lay at below 4.0 to make a profit.

    ~ As we are now laying AFTER the withdrawal, the lay bet is not subject to a RF.

    ~ IMPORTANT - if you are in the PLACE market the RF applies to the POTENTIAL WINNINGS and not the PRICE at which you bet at!


    ~ IMPORTANT - read the Betfair Rules and Regulations before committing any money to the markets and understand them and the implications:

    http://www.betfair.com/www/betfair/G.../#undefined.do

    It may take a while to read them and learn them but you will avoid being caught out and can in fact learn to take advantage of such situations.
    Last edited by Leonthefixer; 14th March 2010 at 12:15 AM.

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    Director of Product Development & Quality Assurance Leonthefixer's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by amothep View Post
    .
    Another question If I can-Is it possible to find out about the withdrawals somewhere else than from the live video?
    On the At The Races pictures if you can get them, if not the live pictures online or on Bris Net, Daily Racing Form probably some others that I don't know about.

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    For example: if the non-runner's final reduction factor is 25% the traded price on all previously matched bets on other horses will be reduced by 25% - traded price of 8.0 would become 6.0 etc.
    This is something I would dispute in theory, and not sure if it is how it is applied or not.
    Consider this market:
    Horse A 1.8
    Horse B 2.3

    Horse A RF 35%
    Horse B RF 60%

    Horse B scratched.
    Horse A back odds reduced from 1.8 to .72........

    Can't see it happening. And yes, this is nothing compared to some of the reduction factors I have seen. Have seen 1.3 shots with RF of 20% before. The whole system is a joke considering the turnover this company has.

  9. #7
    Director of Product Development & Quality Assurance Leonthefixer's Avatar
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    Odds can not go below 1.01 so you can't get 0.72 as you suggest:

    As the Rules and Regs say:

    "The traded price may be further reduced if any other horse(s) is subsequently declared a non-runner, however odds cannot be reduced below 1.01."

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    Quote Originally Posted by Leonthefixer View Post
    Ok here is how the Reduction Factor will work:

    ~ We are trading Horse A in the WIN market

    ~ Horse B has been withdrawn but not removed from the market by Betfair

    ~ Horse B has a Reduction Factor (RF) of 20%

    ~ We back horse A at 5.0

    ~ This actually means we have backed horse A at 4.0 as 5.0 minus 20% = 4.0
    Does the reduction factor work on the stake as well? Using the above, say I backed Horse A for $10 at 5.0. After Horse B withdraws and the reduction factor of 20% is applied, Horse A is now at 4.0.

    Does this mean I have backed for my original $10 at 4.0 or have I backed for $8 at 4.0?

  11. #9
    Director of Product Development & Quality Assurance Leonthefixer's Avatar
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    Your stake will remain as it was at $10. In the place market though the RF is applied to potential winnings and not the odds.

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    Default Multiple non-runners

    So what happens if there are multiple non-runners? When does BF apply the RF and what RF does it use? I've been watching some RFs over the last couple of days to try to figure it out but without much joy. It looks like the RF of an existing NR will move if there is another NR.

    So, using RFs from todays 15.10 at Lingfield as an example, let's say I back horse A at 4.6 in the win market and it's matched. Later, horse B is withdrawn with an RF of 3.8%. After that, horse C is withdrawn with an RF of 12.5%. At this time horse B's RF changes to 4.4%. How, and indeed when, would BF calculate the odds of my bet? Do they re-calc as and when the horses are withdrawn and compound the RFs at the time of the withdrawl? or do they somehow use the final RFs and apply them when the bet is settled?

    Many thanks for any help!

    Thinqer

  13. #11
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    Thinger... Thinger :
    Quote Originally Posted by Leonthefixer View Post
    ............
    ~ IMPORTANT - read the Betfair Rules and Regulations before committing any money to the markets and understand them and the implications:

    http://www.betfair.com/www/betfair/G.../#undefined.do

    It may take a while to read them and learn them but you will avoid being caught out and can in fact learn to take advantage of such situations.
    ..............
    take the above seriously fGs...:
    Quote Originally Posted by Betfair
    • The traded price may be further reduced if any other horse(s) is subsequently declared a non-runner, however odds cannot be reduced below 1.01.

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