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Thread: Over - Football - live - 1.54

  1. #1
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    Jan 2019
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    Default Over - Football - live - 1.54

    Hello, geeks! I see goals scored in football being something very possible, because making mistakes define us as humans, so this can occur no matter the difference of value between two teams.
    I am testing and working on a so-called strategy in which I follow odds minimum 1.54 (in this way, including betfair comissions, I need a strike rate of ~66% to even). I am using 5% from bankroll per bet, but the real struggle are the matches themselves. I can split this way of betting into more types of bets:

    - over 1.5 goals bets - so I wait 20-30-40 minutes until the odds go up and my bet is matched. But most of the times a goal is scored before that and I exit the market.
    - one more goal will be scored in match (waiting for 1.54 of course)

    * over 0.5 goals if I see the match with real chances of win (for example, neither of the teams had a 0-0 this season or the difference between the teams is huge)
    * if at least two goals were scored in the first half, but many times I lost at 2-0 score (we can take as an example a match from 9th of Jan, Adelaide - Melbourne Victory; 2-0 min 21, 2-0 FT -> LOOOOST)
    * if the underdog leads and there are at least 20 minutes of playing left
    * if there are many goals scored until 70th minute, at least 5 goals (11th of January: Hoffenheim v Sint-Truidense 4-2 min 61, 5-2 FT -> WIN)

    The thing is that I feel this being more gambling than a strategy and I am trying to focus on one or two specific types. From your experience, what can you advise me? How do you see this whole thing? Do you use successfully something similar?

    Thanks in advance!

  2. #2
    Forum Addict valve's Avatar
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    Oct 2011
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    I dont see it as gambling as far as you follow your strategy. Can be profitable though but you need to select your matches carefully. This is not my style but there is guy called psychoff (publishing on twitter) laying unders while watching the matches. Check him out.
    Good luck.

  3. #3
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    I've been "working" on the almost same strategy. Yesterday, I was watching EURO qualifications and looking at the markets, here is what I was thinking: You choose to play over 1.5 goals and at one point (while you watching the game and have feeling that first goal will be scored) you back it at let's say 2.2 odd, after the first goal is scored, odd will drop at 1.5, 1.6 immediately and then you lay it, after some time it will go up again, but after the first goal, just close the trade.

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