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Thread: Late goals

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    Veteran Scalper's Avatar
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    Default Late goals



    I've been reading Psychoff's $100,000 blog recently and while he doesn't seem to keen to give any of his strategies away, from looking at the screenshots he's posted he seems to have great success in laying the correct score late in games when there's only a goal in it.

    I tried something similar today but instead of laying the correct score I laid Juventus in the last 10 minutes while they were only 1-0 at odds of 1.10, Bologna scored late in the game to make it 1-1 and that's how the game finished.

    It's something worth doing some more research into to see if it's possible to narrow down to matches to get involved in.

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    On the dole! The Joker's Avatar
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    Smile worth a look!

    what do the stats say on late goals / comebacks??

    I would imagine where there is alot at stake league position / survival!
    Silverware!
    Champions league etc. there may be some good opportunities with a high likely hood. the key will be to find those where the lazy over paid pre-madonna's that are footballers, are motivated enough to play out of there skins for the last 10-5 mins / stoppage time of the game !!
    Also I suppose when there is only a goal in it then there is always the possibility of a point if the side thats down push themselves harder

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    Veteran Scalper's Avatar
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    I'll have a look in the week and see if anything stands out, it might just be a case of watching the game to see if any or both sides are pushing for the winner late on.

    For example there have been 3 injury time goals in the 7 games Chelsea have been involved in this season when they've either been level or a goal behind.

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    Director of European Operations Timstertoo's Avatar
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    The way I understood it is that they lay the current score in injury time if there's one team clearly pushing for another goal.
    If it wasn't for physics and law enforcement I'd be unstoppable!

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    i have a stat that relates to this, don't know if it is of any use:

    football and premier league from 97 to 09 -

    percentage of goals scored in the 40-45 min 3.2 %

    Percentage of goals scoed in the 85-90 min 5.5 %

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    Wink Ah yes!

    Quote Originally Posted by Timstertoo View Post
    The way I understood it is that they lay the current score in injury time if there's one team clearly pushing for another goal.
    I thought I'd read that before was it you that posted it Timstertoo??

    would be nice to find a similar system with a high strike rate though prolly worse odds!

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    Quote Originally Posted by Scumbag trader View Post
    i have a stat that relates to this, don't know if it is of any use:

    football and premier league from 97 to 09 -

    percentage of goals scored in the 40-45 min 3.2 %

    Percentage of goals scoed in the 85-90 min 5.5 %
    Hmm 5.5% Guess this is gonna have to come down to an opinion on how the game is proceedig/has been played ? rather that just stats!
    bit like your in running race reading eh ST!

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    Director of European Operations Timstertoo's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Shergar View Post
    Hmm 5.5% Guess this is gonna have to come down to an opinion on how the game is proceedig/has been played ? rather that just stats!
    bit like your in running race reading eh ST!
    This percentage doesn't tell us anything.

    What we need to know is how often a goal is scored in that time.

    It could be 1 in 200 matches as far as we know, the only thing we know that if goals are scored 5,5% of them are done in that time.
    If it wasn't for physics and law enforcement I'd be unstoppable!

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    Quote Originally Posted by Timstertoo View Post
    This percentage doesn't tell us anything.

    What we need to know is how often a goal is scored in that time.

    It could be 1 in 200 matches as far as we know, the only thing we know that if goals are scored 5,5% of them are done in that time.
    yes I see, I suppose that 5.5% could have been scored between 2001 and 2003 and you'd be none the wiser?!
    wonder if say this may work better in different parts of the season? though like I said I'd still need a good feel for the game to lump in on it! even though its low odds I still hate to lose! RED BAD - GREEN GOOD!!!!!

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    if you want another idea on laying at low odds, then what about laying the leading team at ht. Sunderland today were 1.07 at one point at a sp of 1.75 or around that area. This means that sunderland had around 60% chance of winning the match before kick off assuming the market was correct. At a price of 1.07 before ht, is that not worth a lay, considering that only 35% of teams that lead in the first half continue to win the game if there implied chance of winning is 60% before kick off.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Scumbag trader View Post
    if you want another idea on laying at low odds, then what about laying the leading team at ht. Sunderland today were 1.07 at one point at a sp of 1.75 or around that area. This means that sunderland had around 60% chance of winning the match before kick off assuming the market was correct. At a price of 1.07 before ht, is that not worth a lay, considering that only 35% of teams that lead in the first half continue to win the game if there implied chance of winning is 60% before kick off.
    Hmmm not a bad one there plus I suppose you'd only have needed wolves to push a few times at the start of the second half to puch the price out again!

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    Quote Originally Posted by Scumbag trader View Post
    if you want another idea on laying at low odds, then what about laying the leading team at ht. Sunderland today were 1.07 at one point at a sp of 1.75 or around that area. This means that sunderland had around 60% chance of winning the match before kick off assuming the market was correct. At a price of 1.07 before ht, is that not worth a lay, considering that only 35% of teams that lead in the first half continue to win the game if there implied chance of winning is 60% before kick off.
    I like this, will have to look into it.

    There are so many different angles and bets you can fire on football with all the different markets it's driving me bonkers at the moment.

    The good thing about it though is that with as many variables as that edges should appear every now and again and not as clear cut that a bot can close them mechanically. So here's me hoping that if I put the time in and keep grafting I'll be able to make some nice money of it in the future.
    If it wasn't for physics and law enforcement I'd be unstoppable!

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    football, variables

    I wish, thats why it's so fecking hard to find value.

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    To make it pay, the price would have to be alot lower then 1.10 . .
    1.04 1.03 maybe. . .

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    The bottom line is to watch the game that you are trading.

    I wouldn't stick a lay bet into a market without first deciding that the favs could be vulnerable - what would be the point?

    Someone in the ST forum used to lay the draw (When it was a draw) at 80 mins, didn't they?

    To me this type of approach is gambling disguised as trading, it's not reacting to what is happening but sticking money on the line in the hope that something happens.

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    i think that approach can be gambling, unless maybe you have a stop loss in.

    This guy lays the draw or the favourite at the 60th min. maybe not every game, like you said maybe if the team your betting against looks vulnerable

    http://www.totalgambler.com/otherspo...ed_murray.html

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    Quote Originally Posted by Scumbag trader View Post
    i think that approach can be gambling, unless maybe you have a stop loss in.

    This guy lays the draw or the favourite at the 60th min. maybe not every game, like you said maybe if the team your betting against looks vulnerable

    http://www.totalgambler.com/otherspo...ed_murray.html
    That article was from 2005.

    What's DJ doing now, is he still trading?

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    Quote Originally Posted by geggs1 View Post
    To make it pay, the price would have to be alot lower then 1.10 . .
    1.04 1.03 maybe. . .
    I would be looking for odds like this and only do it on matches I can see. One team, not per necessarily the favorites, has to be clearly looking for and be deemed capable of making that late goal.

    Doesn't matter if it's the team that's 6-0 behind and wanting to save their honour or it's the team that's 4-0 up and their attackers are polishing their stats.

    I'll have to go find some stats to back it up but I'm pretty sure that for instance my team, Ajax, quite often make goals in injury time when they've won the game already. There's something about the other teams spirit been broken and not caring too much anymore that just gives enough space to the very eager strikers for whom every goal is important. If it's still 0-0 I wouldn't do it if it was with Ajax, or most teams really, as the defending team will still give it their all to keep it that way.

    I do notice that the markets tend to overreact a bit towards the end by getting real close to that 1.03 etc with quite some time to play, so I don't think the odds are unattainable, question is, is it profitable.
    If it wasn't for physics and law enforcement I'd be unstoppable!

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    Quote Originally Posted by Mickey Pearce View Post
    That article was from 2005.

    What's DJ doing now, is he still trading?
    Went broke so packed it in.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Scalper View Post
    Went broke so packed it in.
    Is that true Scalper or are you having a laugh?

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