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  1. #1
    Novice Wiseguy's Avatar
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    Default Lay The Draw

    Hi guys,

    I should start saying that I am totally newbie in what regards sports trading but I do have some experience in sports betting and, I like to say, pretty good football knowledge.

    So, I've made a small deposit into my Betfair account with the purpose of trying some methods that could gain me money. One of the simple methods is laying the draw and then back after a team scored, hopefully the favorite to get out from the market with quite considerable profits. Sounds simple but it isn't that simple in reality. I'm well aware of that. I'd like to hear your opinions about this method. Did you use it? Was it profitable? Of course I know that match selection is the key but it's always good to hear other people thoughts, especially if they do have some experience in trading.

    I do also have a number of questions/situations. Would really appreciate if I can get responses.
    1) Is there any advised minimum liquidity in a market to get involved in?
    2) How do you approach it after the goal was scored?
    If the favorite score would you recommend to cash out immediately or wait? I would let it run more minutes before I green-up as I think it is not good to get out of it just after the favorite scored because on the long term I'd need a very big winning % of the football matches traded to be on profit.
    3) What if the underdog scores first? Well, this is a situation that scary a lot of people as I heard. What are your thoughts about this matter? Personally, I think it is advised to get out with small loss. Take in consideration that I'm not planning laying odds higher than 3.5.
    4) There's no goal in the match as it reaches the 70th minute. Well in this situation I'm planning to exit the market and accept the loss. It is impossible to win all of the matches and sometimes I need to accept losses too. Do you think it is a good approach?

    That's all that comes in my mind at the moment. If I have more I'll post it here.

    I wrote this message in hurry and I'm not English native. So, please understand if there are any language problems.

  2. #2
    Novice Wiseguy's Avatar
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    Forgot to say that I'd let the match run some minutes so that I can lay the draw at 3.5 or less, and I'll not choose matches with heavy favorite.

    I'd be more interested in getting involved in matches with heavy favorite at the half time if the score is still draw and I see quite clear domination of the favorite and they get out of the cab fired up for the second half.

    I have some approaches in mind. Will put them in action starting from today with a small bank of about 120 euros. This is like a trial, will run it for 2 or 3 months and if it'll be profitable I'll deposit more money.

  3. #3
    Forum Guru lcredd's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Wiseguy View Post
    1) Is there any advised minimum liquidity in a market to get involved in?
    2) How do you approach it after the goal was scored?
    If the favorite score would you recommend to cash out immediately or wait? I would let it run more minutes before I green-up as I think it is not good to get out of it just after the favorite scored because on the long term I'd need a very big winning % of the football matches traded to be on profit.
    3) What if the underdog scores first? Well, this is a situation that scary a lot of people as I heard. What are your thoughts about this matter? Personally, I think it is advised to get out with small loss. Take in consideration that I'm not planning laying odds higher than 3.5.
    4) There's no goal in the match as it reaches the 70th minute. Well in this situation I'm planning to exit the market and accept the loss. It is impossible to win all of the matches and sometimes I need to accept losses too. Do you think it is a good approach?
    I tried LTD briefly. I didn't lose a match but the wins were tiny compared to what I could have lost. I must say that I didn't have a clue what I was doing at the time - no stop loss etc.

    1: I think serious liquidity is needed if your using serious stakes (£500+) but as long as the market doesn't have big gaps (6.0, 7.4, 10.5) then you should be able to trade small stakes easily.

    2: I always got out after a goal - 'I won 50p, I'm a genius' - but a better answer would be to trade out if, and only if, there is value to be had. Eg: LTD at 3.5, GOAL, draw now at 25, definitely trade out, more likely the draw will be between 3 - 6 depending on who scores so you'll have to use your own judgement, that's why I decided to quit LTD as it is a very tough strategy to master.

    There are a lot of footie experts on here who can help you better than me.
    Good luck.

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    Thanks for sharing your thoughts.

    Unfortunately, there are not many experts here who want to share some of their experience.

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    Forum Guru custard's Avatar
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    The reality is that most "experts" here regard laying the draw as a complete waste of time. The strategy has been discussed to death on this and countless other forums. Please do a search on this forum, and you will see this to be the case.

    Betfair soccer markets tend to be high liquidity and, in consequence, very efficient. This counts against the strategy. Most people who claim success when they use it say their prowess at picking the "right games" is the key. They actually say that they always win in the "right games". Sadly, they lose in the "wrong games". By now you should have realised that they are, in fact, "talking a load of bollocks" !

    You should be able to understand the strategy and realise its pitfalls. Your posts indicate that you are already aware of some of these. So, my advice is that you should fully understand "laying the draw" and then do something else. Anything else !

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    Lots of traders cut their teeth with LTD but most move on reasonably quickly, for the reasons identified by you and custard.

    You will find you are usually better served by looking at other angles... for example in the games you mention with no massive favourite you might get a better result by laying the away team, especially if they're the underdogs. The reason I say this is that the odds will at worst stay reasonably static and at best start to drift reasonably early.. so, in other words, the odds are moving not at all or in the right direction for you! You still need a plan for coping with them scoring, but that's the same situation you're in if you LTD!

    With respect to your later comments about entering a trade at half time I'm inclined to have more faith in that kind of trade. Odds are lower, so you can use higher stakes, or use the same stakes with considerably lower liability. My own preference if 0-0 at half time in a game where it's reasonable to expect at least one goal is simply to lay 0-0! The odds will be higher than the draw so use lower stakes - but the beauty of it is that laying 0-0 takes the 'what do I do if the dogs score?' question out of the equation! You simply rejoice and lay the current score in expectation of the equaliser!

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