Lyon basically 'folded' in the first leg of their tie with Sociedad a couple of weeks ago, losing 0-2 at home. Socie are hot favourites going into the return, but for me the potential value here lies in laying them in the 'to qualify' market, currently 1.05/1.07.

The odds are that low because of the two away goals, but if, like me, you suspect that Lyon might fancy qualifying for the CL proper, an early away goal for them would see the TQ odds rise significantly allowing a nice hedge.

A Socie goal would effectively kill the trade, but at those odds the downside is minimal assuming you stake it sensibly.