How do you trade

[jibiko]

This correct score trading is too complicated for my little brain.

To clarify my statement I was speaking about the nugget crew approach and not others in the correct score market.

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[pedro]

Most traders worry about four primary risks:

- Drawdowns: Strings of losses that reduce the capital in their trading accounts,
- Low returns: Periods of small gains in which one does not make enough money to live on,
- Price shocks: Sudden movements in one or more markets that result in a large unrecoverable loss,
- System death: A change in market dynamics that causes a previously profitable system to start losing money.

Just out of interest - What book did you get this from? I only wonder as I would argue that the first two are not Risks but instead are consequences of Risks.
Consequences are useful in analysing the severity of a risk but not much help in mitigating that risk unless you know the root cause of the risk in the first place.

Just a thought.

[jaybee2]

Hi,

I'm just starting out and reading as much as i can on different approaches/plans/systems. How long have you been following this sytem and how successful have you found it?

Cheers

Smudger

Hi Smudger

Not long and not every day sorry. I can only advise small stakes and pick horses which have more than one tipster.

[jibiko]

Just out of interest - What book did you get this from? I only wonder as I would argue that the first two are not Risks but instead are consequences of Risks.
Consequences are useful in analysing the severity of a risk but not much help in mitigating that risk unless you know the root cause of the risk in the first place.

Just a thought.

Sorry, but can't remember the book.
Many of them, thousands of pages, difficult to research now.
In my notes I didn't keep, the references.
Stupid I know, now I realize it.
Thanks for pointing it out. I 'll do it from now on.
Maybe I 'll come back with an answer sometime.

In a general way of speaking, though,
I think the author has defined it right,
but your approach on this seems also right.
Interesting.

Consequences are useful in analysing the severity of a risk but not much help in mitigating that risk unless you know the root cause of the risk in the first place.

unless you know the root cause of the risk in the first place.

So if you know the root cause of the risk in the first place
then it's useful in analysing and minimizing the risk as possible?

Trading involves risk.
So you have to do with minimizing the risk as you can?
If you don't know the risks involved how you can trade properly?
Maybe you know the risks involved in
your trading plan/strategy/tactic already?
If not maybe you have to identify them and then proceed?

Some random thoughts.

p.s.1 I 'll try to find the exact book
that was used for your initial quote,
but please give me some time on this.
p.s.2 An example to clear things, as we can, will follow.

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[jibiko]

Let's use an example to clear things as we can
(please correct me if I am wrong on this).

Quote “ Drawdowns: Strings of losses that reduce the capital in their trading accounts”

We have a trading plan that produces:
Bank 100 euro
In 500 trades, 300 trades won 200 lost.
That means 60% won, 40% lost.
Lets say that, your stake is 20 and in average,
you win 20 euro or lose 20 euro in every trade.
So you are up in your balance, in the end. Good.
Or maybe not?

According to this useful tool (money management tool),
kindly provided by Sagitario,
with a 60% strike rate one can expect
to have a losing sequence of 12 somewhere in the series
(there is a 1% chance of that happening).

This string of 12 losses can kill your bank (12x20=240).
You have only 100. BOOM. Game over.

Now, knowing the risk of the drawdown involved, 12 straight losses,
we use 5 euro stakes instead
(so we, in average, win or lose 5 in every trade).
Our capital can absorb this drawdown and continue existing till the end
of the 500 trades and make our balance up.

Except the straight losing sequences there are losing sequences
that come close one to another.
They are worse than a straight one only.
If you double the figures given by Sagitario,
I think, you can be safe.

In the above example with 60% strike rate
you can expect to have a losing sequence of 12
somewhere in the series
(there is a 1% chance of that happening).
Please don't underestimate it. It will happen more often than you imagine.
So double this figure. That makes 24.
Now this is a safe number (you can triple or quadruple it if you want,
for more safety and psychological reasons).
Our bank has 100 euro. It has to withstand a 24 stakes straight loss
and have enough capital to continue working.

Let's use 1 euro stakes (so we, in average, win or lose 1 in every trade)
in a 100 euro bank.
Our bank can now absorb a 24 stakes straight loss
and continue working till the end of the 500 trades providing us 100 euro.
(Bank 100 euro - In 500 trades, 300 trades won 200 lost.
That means 60% won, 40% lost).

100% of our capital with a 60% strike rate. It's good, I think.


p.s.1 Please correct me if I am wrong,
or forgot to mention something to clarify things up.
p.s.2 Maybe the winnings will be smaller and not 100% but 60%
of our trading capital,
but we will have our bank alive which is our focus,
target, in this example about the drawdown risk involved.

[pedro]

Yes that all makes sense now. I was viewing it from a slightly different angle. The example you give implies a rule based betting system with known performance figures and I wasn’t looking at it from that viewpoint. I was thinking that there was a root cause to the string of losses rather than a known variance within the system.
It does highlight good mitigating action though. The severity of a risk is the combination of the probability x the consequence. So to manage a risk down to an acceptable level you have to reduce either one of those. In your example there is no point in trying to reduce the probability as it already very low, ie. 1% so the only possible course of action is to reduce the consequence.

Thanks for clarifying.

[crowdog]

[QUOTE=jibiko;10195]

According to this useful tool (money management tool),
kindly provided by Sagitario,
with a 60% strike rate one can expect
to have a losing sequence of 12 somewhere in the series
(there is a 1% chance of that happening).

This string of 12 losses can kill your bank (12x20=240).
You have only 100. BOOM. Game over.



Very interesting that you should point this out. Using the correct size bank in any situation long term (without using the same method long term you would probably never encounter something that is only a 1% chance, but not certainly) is advisable, although I would be confident that if I have the knowledge base on a particular event the risk in that market is something I am prepaired to take.
For example, I pick football matches based not only on statistics but opinion and if I combine the 2 I would be confident enough to risk more of my bank.
Your advise is good as a general base but I'm sure there are many out there who make decent money and do not account for the worst possible outcome.

For me it would be difficult to produce an exact strike rate due to entry and exit points differing and therefore one trade is not exactly the same as the one before or the one after.
Lets say I have a method of selecting u/o 2.5 goals, if I were to make the selections and let them run as gambles then each one is the same and from that I can easily produce a strike rate, but I don't often do that. It's more that I will select u/o 1.5, 2.5 or maybe I will switch to a differant market depending on what happens during the game. Each one is not the same so all I can do is record what I have done and try to improve.
Any strike rate I have is not entirely accurate because each trade is not the same.

[jibiko]

Please don't make the common mistake of thinking
these sequences won't happen.
They are mathematically determined by strike rates
and will happen as often as they are entitled to,
whether one likes it or not.
Nobody can avoid them.
When they do occur it certainly doesn't mean that you are 'out of form'
or doing anything wrong – it’s just the mathematics involved
being proved accurate.
Then provided the averaged price of winners are compatible with the strike rate and retained capital reserves are at sufficient levels to absorb such anticipated sequences, one will always be in a sound enough position to successfully weather such negative run.

from Anticipated Losing Runs, by Sagitario

[crowdog]

Please don't make the common mistake of thinking
these sequences won't happen.
They are mathematically determined by strike rates
and will happen as often as they are entitled to,
whether one likes it or not.
Nobody can avoid them.
When they do occur it certainly doesn't mean that you are 'out of form'
or doing anything wrong – it’s just the mathematics involved
being proved accurate.
Then provided the averaged price of winners are compatible with the strike rate and retained capital reserves are at sufficient levels to absorb such anticipated sequences, one will always be in a sound enough position to successfully weather such negative run.

from Anticipated Losing Runs, by Sagitario

I'm not saying that your wrong by any means. What I am saying is that a true strike rate for my style of trading is very difficult to obtain as often each trade varies from the next.
It could be when I enter and what makes me enter a market or when I exit or how I exit.
For me these are not specific rules and therefore, I feel it better to look at the whole picture of why and how, if I have recorded enough detail I can hopefully improve.

[jibiko]

the post no23 was made to clarify things for future readers.

[bobbedford]

Hi guys

Recognise a few familiar faces from the old ST forum - I used to go under the guise of HumbleCooper.

I've been away from Betfair for 9 months.

I've returned, ultra risk averse, and am trying to make money just by betting on anything pre-match and trying to take a spread i.e. just waiting to be matched at the lay price and then laying at something lower. The bit of magic is trying to make sure the markets don't move against you, so I've come up with a model which factors bookies odds in.

Doing alright so far. Up over 5% in two weeks. I am setting myself a target of 2.5% a week for now - which I know sounds small. But hey, I am only get .5% p.a. if I hold it as cash in my bank account.

[RobinHood]

So here's how i trade in football markets. I'm new to this technique but it has already proven itself very well.

I find a game were only 1 goal or, even better, no goal is scored before the halftime. Then when the halftime begins i pick Over/Under x.5 Goals (usually 1.5 or 2.5) market and i place a Lay bet on "Over Goals". Then when the 2nd half of the game starts i green up.
If the trade doesn't go well when the 2nd half starts then i try to trade it even or with small losses before 46:30-47:00 minute marker.

Last 14days before 31st december i got up ~33% not trading full time.
So this year i'm gonna polish this technique and try to get my money back from Betfair

Happy New Year and good luck to all traders!

[taxbreaks]

So here's how i trade in football markets. I'm new to this technique but it has already proven itself very well.

I find a game were only 1 goal or, even better, no goal is scored before the halftime. Then when the halftime begins i pick Over/Under x.5 Goals (usually 1.5 or 2.5) market and i place a Lay bet on "Under Goals". Then when the 2nd half of the game starts i green up.
If the trade doesn't go well when the 2nd half starts then i try to trade it even or with small losses before 46:30-47:00 minute marker.

Last 14days before 31st december i got up ~33% not trading full time.
So this year i'm gonna polish this technique and try to get my money back from Betfair

Happy New Year and good luck to all traders!

Please could you expand - I have developed a similar method - I look for 0-0 at half time and lay Under +1.5 price will normally be 1.60-1.70 or less not really interested if greater than this - may under some circumstances also place 20% of unders bet on 1-0. Look to leave this bet to run if not greened up - until 75-80 minute price normally at about 1.26 - 1.30 and then will take a view. In a very open game (like Celtic/Rangers yesterday) may lay 0-0.

Selected three games in Spain yesterday all 0-0 at half time:

Racing Santander v CD Tenerife 2-0 (goals 73-76 mins)

Real Mallorca v Athletic Club Bilbao 2-0 (goals 49-65 mins)

Are two classic markets I traded yesterday traded out after first goal in both cases for a green up.

Real Zaragoza v Deportivo La Coruņa 0-0 - reded up lessened slightly by a 0-0 back.

Looking to improve this trading so any observations greatly received

[RobinHood]

Please could you expand - I have developed a similar method - I look for 0-0 at half time and lay Under +1.5 price will normally be 1.60-1.70 or less not really interested if greater than this - may under some circumstances also place 20% of unders bet on 1-0. Look to leave this bet to run if not greened up - until 75-80 minute price normally at about 1.26 - 1.30 and then will take a view. In a very open game (like Celtic/Rangers yesterday) may lay 0-0.

Selected three games in Spain yesterday all 0-0 at half time:

Racing Santander v CD Tenerife 2-0 (goals 73-76 mins)

Real Mallorca v Athletic Club Bilbao 2-0 (goals 49-65 mins)

Are two classic markets I traded yesterday traded out after first goal in both cases for a green up.

Real Zaragoza v Deportivo La Coruņa 0-0 - reded up lessened slightly by a 0-0 back.

Looking to improve this trading so any observations greatly received

Here's a little log how i traded yesterday:

Rayo Vallecano v Levante : Over/Under 1.5 Goals
Halftime begins and i lay Over 1.5 Goals @ ~2.72
about 3 minutes before 2nd half i green up @ 3.00 (best trade yesterday )

Celtic v Rangers : Over/Under 1.5 Goals
Halftime begins and i lay Over 1.5 Goals @ 2.36
about 5 minutes later i see a chance to green up @ 2.42

Mallorca v Ath Bilbao : Over/Under 1.5 Goals
Halftime begins and i lay Over 1.5 Goals @ 2.32
the market is moving as i expected so 1minute later i green up @ 2.36

Hibernian v Hearts : Over/Under 1.5 Goals
Halftime begins and i lay Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.43
the market is not moving as i expected so i have get out and green up @ 1.41 (2nd half has already begun 46:30-47:00)

Sp Lisbon v Braga : Over/Under 1.5 Goals
Halftime begins and i lay Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.48
the market is not moving as i expected so i want to get out and green up but as the 2nd half starts there's suddenly no money on the other side so i kept waiting. Only @ 47:00-49:00 someone started to trade off with small amount of money, but then someone scored the 2nd goal and i ended up losing money. (I lost all money that i won throughout the day in this trade)

Total P/L for yesterday: -€0.01
The last 2 trades were totally pathetic because i had the ability to green up with positive results in both trades before the start or 2nd half. I was just a little slow.


In conclusion:
There are always good opportunities to trade in halftime, you just have to pick the right market.
In Spains and English leagues the price in the beginning of the halftime tends to shorten a little bit and then before the start of the 2nd half it starts to drift again.

[Ted]

Liquidity obviously a problem.

Soon as first trade is taken, do U ask for x num of ticks profit.

Take it that the bigger the price, the faster the traded price moves

As always,If we can get a favourable price on initial trade, we stand a chance long term, of getting round the 5% (max) 'take' doesn't look easy!