Bazbaz trading diary

[bazbaz]

OK so from tomorrow I will be posting results daily along with a description of the days events. Hopefully some will find it useful, I certainly do in terms of maintaining discipline and avoiding doing anything stupid, which is something that has been happening all too frequently recently! Feel free to post your own results or impressions on the days' trading, its always interesting to hear how others found the markets on the same day. Some people probably think I'm showing off doing something like this, but the truth is I'm a lazy bugger and not suited perfectly to day in day out concentration. The thing about trading is that you build your bank up quite slowly, but one mistake and the whole thing can come crashing down. When you rely on this for money you really need to be focused and protect your bank 100% of the time and this helps me to do that :)

[bazbaz]

I've been collecting some research materials recently to learn more about the racing markets, one thing I've got is snapshots of many bf graphs at different times in an attempt to become better at graph reading / technical analysis etc. I thought maybe it would be fun to post some graphs on here and see what people would predict would happen to each of the runners and why. Maybe we'll all even learn something.....

The following graphs are from the front 3 in a race at Pontefract with 3 mins to go before the off. Obviously you can't say for sure what you think will happen, but any ideas?? I'll post a later screen of the same race tomorrow so you can check your predictions. No prizes for the winner I'm afraid!

http://i38.tinypic.com/5jzk0k.jpg

[neeeel]

I find it hard to know what graphs are going to do, but if I was going to do anything here I would lay the fav at 1.4 and look for a small swing out. I hate trading races where the fav is low odds tho.

[Scalper]

Nice to see you've moved over here, Bazbaz.:)

I enjoyed your old 'one month' trading diary.

[Temujin]

Gee, that first graph looks like a similar trend to my bank balance over the last week... :S Fair to suggest I have never been hit this hard in 4 years, every day..... :S

[Talisman]

Looking forward to the posts and screenies, and thoughts.

Not sure what you mean by "bank growing slowly when trading".. How slowly is slowly? $800 to $2k in 2 weeks your original bank x 2.5. Sounds about right to me?

Also, are you using BetDevil or TT to trade? Your screenshot is showing BetDevil loaded.

[TheSurgeon]

Florensky's odds expected to drop with Godolphin followers pushing the price down - looks like a back to me.

Mind you I've been trading like Douggie from Skegness lately:D

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z_X8EhnwM9g&feature=related

[bazbaz]

Not sure what you mean by "bank growing slowly when trading".. How slowly is slowly? $800 to $2k in 2 weeks your original bank x 2.5. Sounds about right to me?

Also, are you using BetDevil or TT to trade? Your screenshot is showing BetDevil loaded.

What I meant by bank growing slowly is like looking at your p+l and seeing +£4, +£12, -£3, + £8..... compared to what you can see if you make a huge mistake and let one go in play (like -£300) lol

I'm using BD at the moment as I'm used to it but I've been using the toy for research recently, really it is excellent, maybe I'll trade with it in future

[Temujin]

Looking forward to the posts and screenies, and thoughts.

Not sure what you mean by "bank growing slowly when trading".. How slowly is slowly? $800 to $2k in 2 weeks your original bank x 2.5. Sounds about right to me?

Also, are you using BetDevil or TT to trade? Your screenshot is showing BetDevil loaded.


Depends on your bank really does it not? Also depends on your circumstances?
Fair to suggest, even at your rate, somebody with $100, and no income, will not build his bank up very quickly, considering he needs to use the profits to live. Also fair to suggest that you cannot multiply your bank by 2.5* every fortnight, unless your bank never grows.
If your bank is not growing, yet you are making 2.5* each fortnight, is your bank really growing?

Ok. So point is, you are picking out some things where it will be completely defined by the person involved, their situation, goals, and ability.

[Temujin]

compared to what you can see if you make a huge mistake and let one go in play (like -£300) lol

lol.. I am using liability staking 2k for Aus at the moment. This week, I had 7 screw ups. Mostly my fault for trading too close to the off. Every one I needed to win, missed the kick by lengths. Every one I needed to lose, got the jump. Lost every bet...... :O
The last one was my favourite. Commentators said "we have time, we are waiting for Geelong." So I entered a trade, "Good start, except the favourites missed it by 5."... WTF? Waiting? Didn't need that 1800 anyway...... :S

[bazbaz]

lol.. I am using liability staking 2k for Aus at the moment. This week, I had 7 screw ups. Mostly my fault for trading too close to the off. Every one I needed to win, missed the kick by lengths. Every one I needed to lose, got the jump. Lost every bet...... :O
The last one was my favourite. Commentators said "we have time, we are waiting for Geelong." So I entered a trade, "Good start, except the favourites missed it by 5."... WTF? Waiting? Didn't need that 1800 anyway...... :S

THats rough! I've had those happen to me before, fortunately I had back up at the time. Have you heard about the new betdevil VPS service where australian users can access betfair including the uk races with the same connection as if they were in the UK?

[Anonymous]

Have you heard about the new betdevil VPS service where australian users can access betfair including the uk races with the same connection as if they were in the UK?

Firstly don't forget there is still the time it takes between your home PC and the VPS

Also you can get that VPS yourself and for slightly less than Bet Devil offer it

[Temujin]

THats rough! I've had those happen to me before, fortunately I had back up at the time. Have you heard about the new betdevil VPS service where australian users can access betfair including the uk races with the same connection as if they were in the UK?


I have had a VPS for around 2 years now. I hardly ever trade UK races though, these were all Aus races, and most of them aren't offering in play. I think there was 2 that actually went in play, but they missed by so much from word go that I couldn't get off anyway.
I see no reason to get a VPS with Betangel when I can just do it myself. Not sure of their setup, but I can do whatever I please with mine, and use whatever trading platform tickles my fancy.
The Toy seems to run well enough for me without using it, and it seems laggy on the VPS, so until I have issues with data usage, I think I will just run it locally, for races, and just use it for, ummm, other strategies... :)

[1/4 of a millionaire fund]

Never quite understood why people use VPS for trading, obviously for botting it makes sense to reduce that distance between you and betfair but with trading surely it'll just add extra steps into the loop.

[Temujin]

Never quite understood why people use VPS for trading, obviously for botting it makes sense to reduce that distance between you and betfair but with trading surely it'll just add extra steps into the loop.

There are a few reasons. I am happy to tell you a couple of them.
As an Australian, I am linked to the International server in Malta when trading from Aus. From the UK, I am straight into London. Actually takes out a couple of steps. (at least that is how it used to work).
Also, we are in the dark ages as far as internet is concerned. I pay 150 bucks a month for 60GB internet package. That gets used trading. Go through the VPS, and the majority of the data goes through my VPS unlimited account. There are also other major benefits, but this is not the place to discuss them.

[doubleback]

http://i649.photobucket.com/albums/uu211/backdouble/Bazbazgraph.jpg

Top graph - I reckon a move to the upside, it has broken out of the downward trend but is flatlining a bit and undecided so a move down is still a possibility, i would wait for comformation of a forming upward trend at this point.

Middle graph - Downward trend broken, upward move imminent, lay for me.


Bottom graph - Upward trend broken, i reckon a test of the support at 12.5 will happen.

Will be interesting to see the graphs a bit further on in time, i find moving averages are of great benefit when using graphs, when the price line is above the moving average the price is going up and vice versa, enter trades when the moving average is broken, simples!!

[1/4 of a millionaire fund]

k, I'd overlooked all the restrictions on overseas accounts :)

[bazbaz]

http://i34.tinypic.com/2la9d78.jpg

I dunno about you guys but I thought that was pretty tough again. Money only arriving very very late. Cheltenham was a nice bonus though :)

[bazbaz]

http://i649.photobucket.com/albums/uu211/backdouble/Bazbazgraph.jpg

Top graph - I reckon a move to the upside, it has broken out of the downward trend but is flatlining a bit and undecided so a move down is still a possibility, i would wait for comformation of a forming upward trend at this point.

Middle graph - Downward trend broken, upward move imminent, lay for me.


Bottom graph - Upward trend broken, i reckon a test of the support at 12.5 will happen.

Will be interesting to see the graphs a bit further on in time, i find moving averages are of great benefit when using graphs, when the price line is above the moving average the price is going up and vice versa, enter trades when the moving average is broken, simples!!

Impressive stuff mate, you're pretty accurate on all 3! I chose this one because it was one of few that I could quickly be pretty sure about (at least that the fav would most likely drift a little after it had levelled out)

Here it is 1 min from the off

http://i35.tinypic.com/2vczvgy.jpg

[bazbaz]

Nice to see you've moved over here, Bazbaz.:)

I enjoyed your old 'one month' trading diary.

lol cheers scalper

[Talisman]

lol.. I am using liability staking 2k for Aus at the moment. This week, I had 7 screw ups. Mostly my fault for trading too close to the off. Every one I needed to win, missed the kick by lengths. Every one I needed to lose, got the jump. Lost every bet...... :O
The last one was my favourite. Commentators said "we have time, we are waiting for Geelong." So I entered a trade, "Good start, except the favourites missed it by 5."... WTF? Waiting? Didn't need that 1800 anyway...... :S

I kill open trades near the estimated suspension time, every time, unless I have sky right in front of me, which isn't very often at all (Im only a hobby-ist).

TT seems to run fast enough for me to trade, in the UK. Obviously I can't quite take advantage of some of the moves, as Im about 400ms behind, but for mini swing trading it does the job.

Far too tempted, and often tempted, to trade in-play. It resembles the Aus markets more. :D

[Anonymous]

OK so from tomorrow I will be posting results daily along with a description of the days events.

Still planning on daily updates? Not heard anything for 3 days hope you have been doing okay???

[bazbaz]

Still planning on daily updates? Not heard anything for 3 days hope you have been doing okay???

Dont do Sundays and mondays normally, these markets are poor enough at the moment without those days!

http://i49.tinypic.com/1vsr8.jpg

I got caught in play for the 105 loss you see. Tommorrow Im just going to trade very cautiously, it almost gets beyond a joke when you throw away more than your days money by one slip like that. For unforeseen reasons I needed some cash from my bf account so I started the day with a bank of roughly 480, now its 440, so..... tough times! I'm expecting better tommorrow though. The way the markets are at the moment using smaller stakes and being more agile might not be the worst thing in the world. I'm trading a little differently at the moment, more like when I first started actually. I think a lot of people will be finding it tough right now, being able to adapt may be necessary for some styles. They say winter kills off a certain % of traders every year. Certainly this is the time to at least be disciplined.

[bazbaz]

Forgot to say I'll post a new graph tomorrow :D

[neeeel]

I am finding it quite tough at the moment, too. Im glad( in a nice way of course, it means that theres hope for me) that someone who can make a lot of money is also finding it tough :D

[Scumbag trader]

I'm definately finding the winter tough. Profits are down, and i've drastically changed my trading style recently. I'm usually quite aggressive, i'm taking the more conservative approach now, and just accepting smaller profits for the day.

Glad to see you back baz, i really enjoy following your progress and very informative write ups, cheers mate ;)

[RonA]

Looking forward to the new graph test I found the last one pretty informative tried using the betfair graphs to trade by today ( I usually just scalp ) got a few nice little swing trades £21 profit today which is good for me , I hope I can keep it going . I do find the last few races the large field handicaps frustratingly difficult to work out how to trade .
Thanks for doing the trading diary Bazbaz it's always a good read and I hope you don't get caught out in-play again , anyway I think it's probably my turn tomorrow .

[jimrobo]

had a mare today got spanked on one race and had a -150 and the rest of the day was a damage limitation exercise which is very annoying considering I am not trading this saturday and watching the rugby. Luckily I had a pretty big week last week but yesterday and today have been really really tough. masses of liquidity but the markets have just been strange, very strange. 20-30k bets coming in all over the place

[1/4 of a millionaire fund]

I don't think it's all doom and gloom, plenty of money in some of the races today wouldn't look out of place with a Saturday meeting and Cheltenham over three days made me as much as I'd expect over the week. Think the real problems will occur when we start getting abandoned meetings and smaller fields due to the weather but the jumps is just starting and plenty of decent meetings due to come along.

I did notice a drop in liquidity at the start of November but now putting that down to trading after a week off as thursday onwards the moneys been there.

[jimrobo]

there's been plenty of apparant money around the past couple of days but I don't know many traders that have actually been able to profit from it. The market behaviour has been really strange. Trends have been completely different and untrue. Although there appears to be a lot of money coming through fill rate has been awful.

[bazbaz]

Although there appears to be a lot of money coming through fill rate has been awful.

Exactly lol

[bazbaz]

http://i49.tinypic.com/2aet7vb.jpg


So what was todays calamity you may be asking? Well I dropped 117 (off screen shot) in the 2nd race when trying to work out my new maximum stakes...... instead of laying an outsider on betdevil for 2.8 (or whatever it was) to test to see how high up the ladder I could stake 300, I inexplicably backed the damn horse, from its then current price of 20, all the way down to 5.6. Graph below. So if you got part of that lay I hope you enjoyed it, it must have felt like christmas come early!

http://i50.tinypic.com/64i242.jpg

From then on it was just a case of trying not to be too annoyed with myself and trade in anger, which I managed quite well except for for instance where I got carried away and lost nearly 40. So what would have been a day of roughly £84 profit from a 400 bank turns into a £73 loss by two lapses. I think sometimes you have to be a monk or a saint to trade these markets! Hopefully others had better days, I didn't think liquidity was TOO bad today, although putting the market rasen ones back 5 mins is hardly ideal :rolleyes:

I think sometimes your ability to do this has as more to do with your aptitude for taking punishment than learning how to read graphs lol. In any case here's one for you to predict what happens next.......

1 minute to go on the 3.05 at Musselburgh

http://i50.tinypic.com/2r723w0.jpg

[jimrobo]

er......2nd fave takes a hammering down to 4 and fave moves a little out? Thats a complete guess btw. I end to just react to what is happeing in front of me rather than preguess it ike that (thats my disclaimer over!)

[FiscalStimulus]

I'll have a little go at guessing these;

Fav continues to move sideways, 2nd fav continues to drift, 3rd fav comes in slightly

[neeeel]

2nd fav breaks thro 5 and heads on out, fav comes back in and stabilises round about 2

[RonA]

I think the fav will stay where it currently is 2.25 , 2nd fav may drift out a little , and 3rd fav has probably bottomed out and stay at it's current price ,
but with less than 1 minute left I would not expect any major drifts or steam and would not get involved myself .

[1/4 of a millionaire fund]

If I was looking to play those I'd be expecting the second fav to come in as the graph appears to show money coming for it any resistance at 5's continually backed. Also the third fav is being backed and I'd expect that to come in possibly a little more even though it appears there's resistance at 9.6ish I wouldn't want to be a layer. The fav doesn't appear to have any real direction and with support for the second fav coming you have to expect that to drift out dependant on how much money actually comes in for the 2nd fav in order to maintain the %'s possibly 4.3 and 2.6+

[GranpaChook]

I guess I'm in the huge minority then. Every Tom, Dick and Harry is saying how tough it is at the moment where's I'm loving it. Tis strange how different people find trading the same market.

Maybe it's because I'm not a graph analyzing swing trader? I mean, I do look at them for something to do but I take no real notice and it very rarely affects how I approach a market.

I also struggled in the Summer when everyone else was saying how easy it was. Different strokes for different folks!

[1/4 of a millionaire fund]

Same here Granpa, I'm finding the markets fine at the moment and think there's plenty of cash around. I've some bots running that take small but regular amounts out of the markets usually making around £500 per week. I've used them for a fair few years and they rely on liquidity, apart from a dip at the start of November they're more or less back to the same levels they made during the flat.

I thought it was going to be bad with the end of night racing and less meetings but if anything the drop in meetings has been a bonus as there's more time to concentrate on one race rather than jumping market to market especially as I play late on and lots of markets just meant lots of clashes. Plus the 4:00 finishies are a real bonus with no more days wasted trading til 9:00.

I can understand some people having problems as the markets have been slightly odd at times but I'm just a 2/3 ticker and the prices I play at aren't affected.

[bazbaz]

http://i49.tinypic.com/2lmauza.jpg


The results from the graph 'contest'.....

http://i47.tinypic.com/25s5quq.jpg

Will post a new one later :)

[jimrobo]

er......2nd fave takes a hammering down to 4 and fave moves a little out?

not a million miles away

[RonA]

Only got 1 right out of 3 doh !! Must try harder . :)

[bazbaz]

Fri / Sat / Tues.........

http://i47.tinypic.com/b3wl5l.jpg

I thought yesterday traded pretty well, nice liquidity about even though all ATR meetings. Or maybe I just felt refreshed after a couple of days off and am trading with a slightly better bank than before. Its funny how sometimes you might think 'the markets were good/ crap today' when maybe the truth is more a reflection of how you are feeling and what kind of form you are in coming into the day.

Anyway here's a new screenshot for all you soothsayers out there

5.15 Haydock 4 mins before the off

http://i45.tinypic.com/wlds9j.jpg

[Cran]

Ok, nothing better to do at the moment so I'll give this one a go... :eek:

Top one keeps drifting out 7
Middle one stays around 6.2/6.4
Bottom one comes back in to 6 then settles at 6.2/6.4

reasons (for what they are worth)
the top one has a steady drift so no reason to not keep doing that
the middle one has support at 5.8 and resistance first at 7 and then at 6.6
the third one was coming in then went out and has now levelled off, but could go either way (I've chosen down as it shows no sign of going up and has already been lower)

[bazbaz]

http://i50.tinypic.com/ou5r1d.jpg

Does anyone else feel that liquidity the last couple of days has been a lot better than last week, or is it just me? Today was one of those nice days where I was making money effortlessly without much stress at all, just how its supposed to be ;)

[Talisman]

Charts -
Chisholm Castle should come in before drifting out.
Sterling Sound, dont know, dont care
Assabiya may go out a bit before coming in, probably close to 6.

[RonA]

I concur with Cran
top one continues to drift if it breaks thought 6
middle is going nowhere
bottom could come into about 6

[bazbaz]

http://i50.tinypic.com/1zny9l2.jpg

Apologies for the lack of posts, I had a couple of days off trading, needed to freshen up.

Here's what happened in the 5.15 from Haydock. Funny how obvious it seems after the event!

http://i49.tinypic.com/b7nj2d.jpg

I'll be trading today and tomorrow to make up for lost time so I'll post up a new 'what happens next graph' after the football :)

[bazbaz]

http://i47.tinypic.com/2qs3yww.jpg

That would have been a pretty good day for me had it not been for a load going straight through me before the off on the 2 o clock at carlisle and having to get out in play. Liquidity was pretty good, much better than I expected for a sunday. I guess you never really know what you're going to get, though there were some decent races on today.

The following screen is from Perth 2.50 with 4 minutes left. What happens next?

http://i48.tinypic.com/15dmhqd.jpg

[Rod Flanders]

wats ur average daily winnings mate? if u dont mind me asking

ive averaged £133 a day this month.

on sports with only the odd trade on the gee gees as i find them too much stress!!!:mad::mad:

[bazbaz]

wats ur average daily winnings mate? if u dont mind me asking

ive averaged £133 a day this month.

on sports with only the odd trade on the gee gees as i find them too much stress!!!:mad::mad:

No idea I've never worked it out, never much as I think it should or could be lol

[1/4 of a millionaire fund]

No idea I've never worked it out, never much as I think it should or could be lol

It's the opposite with me, I rarely check the pnl throughout the day and always get amazed at how these odd £10's and £20's add up at the end of the day.

[jimrobo]

I did exactly the same yesterday!
Caught inplay minus 150 very early doors!

[bazbaz]

I did exactly the same yesterday!
Caught inplay minus 150 very early doors!

Nasty, I hate it when you get caught early on, makes you feel like your just gonna have to spend the rest of the day playing catch up

[bazbaz]

It's the opposite with me, I rarely check the pnl throughout the day and always get amazed at how these odd £10's and £20's add up at the end of the day.

I don't check it until the end either, I always find the less I think about the money the better I trade

[jimrobo]

Nasty, I hate it when you get caught early on, makes you feel like your just gonna have to spend the rest of the day playing catch up

Exactly! The worst thing is I had a decent week and was going to go into manchester and meet some friends but because of the weather I thought I'll stay in, trade and top up a decent week then boom -150 in the 3rd!! Was really annoyed with myself as I was watching my initial stake getting matched and not even thinking of getting out even though I could see they were about to set off! the next 3 hours is then trading for nothing!

[bazbaz]

http://i46.tinypic.com/5bti5c.jpg

What a crap day to be trading! All ATR, races finishing 20 seconds before the next one starts and no money. Now you know why I don't normally bother with mondays!

This happened in play which I thought was pretty interesting..... Some one had fat finger syndrome and backed it down to evens right at the start of the race

http://i47.tinypic.com/v4cina.jpg

[1/4 of a millionaire fund]

I didn't find today too bad for a Monday, although the fact Wolves was on helped as I usually find it an easy course to trade and there's usually fair amounts of money around. Mondays are always crap days to trade as it takes a while to adjust from the weekend liquidity to the crap we get given for Mondays. The racing and liquidity for Mondays and Tuesdays are never up to much.

I know quite a few traders who take Mondays off but at this time of year it's more a case of fitting in as many meetings as possible for me as we've already had meetings abandoned and won't be long before we get a few blank days. I don't really trade much outside the UK races so looks like December will be poor in profit terms.



http://img509.imageshack.us/img509/6029/94404325.jpg

[RonA]

OK I'll have the first go embarrass myself again
chart 1 resistance at 2.75 will continue on original uptrend .
chart 2 sharp move down seems to be supported will carry on coming in .
chart 3 will stay at around 5.5

[bazbaz]

I didn't find today too bad for a Monday, although the fact Wolves was on helped as I usually find it an easy course to trade and there's usually fair amounts of money around. Mondays are always crap days to trade as it takes a while to adjust from the weekend liquidity to the crap we get given for Mondays. The racing and liquidity for Mondays and Tuesdays are never up to much.

I know quite a few traders who take Mondays off but at this time of year it's more a case of fitting in as many meetings as possible for me as we've already had meetings abandoned and won't be long before we get a few blank days. I don't really trade much outside the UK races so looks like December will be poor in profit terms.



http://img509.imageshack.us/img509/6029/94404325.jpg

Impressive stuff their mate, how long have you been trading for? I scratch my head at how you can achieve those figures with the little money there was arriving so late to take advantage of lol

[1/4 of a millionaire fund]

A long time on and off trading bazbaz, I used to do contract work and do a year trading then back to work for a year to keep my hand in. Currently on a two year stretch trading as moved house and got sick of the travelling for the work.

I'll happily play outside the front 3 so the liquidity isn't that much of a problem when 2 or 3 ticks for £100 will easily get my £10 or so for the race at 0.5 per tick. I rarely cross the spread so as long as I don't go in too heavy for the market the bets usually get taken and just drip my bets if £100 or so would spook the market.

The money's been coming into the markets late for quite some time now but I generally play late maybe 2mins max before the off as I find any moves are more predictable and sustained. You'll also find that even though the market may look thin there's quite a bit of underlying activity so it's a case of 'got to be in it to win it' and I'll happily stick in offers of which the majority will go unmatched but at least I'd be happy with my entry once they are matched rather than trying to chase or force the market.

It's days like today that are the worst with just low grade NH meetings, at least the AW stuff like Kempton/Wolves is usually competitve and always enough liquidity around for me. Found today a stuggle but it's just a case of waiting for the opportunity to come up the pounce, hardest part is waiting for those opportunities and avoiding getting involved on early false moves thats why I avoid looking at the market til around 2mins as I rarely get early movements correct as a tick trader. I've been playing long enough now to know those opportunities will come along sometime during the day and certainly during the week so it's just a case of waiting for them.

http://img233.imageshack.us/img233/9468/36810762.jpg

[The Geek]

Nothing the matter with today. ;)

[bazbaz]

http://i46.tinypic.com/35bgmls.jpg

I only really got going properly in the end there, this seems to happen quite a lot with me getting my best results at the end of the day. Maybe I need to go on a trading simulator for a couple of hours every day before I started. Early on I was far too cautious after losing 30 on the first race and was getting frustrated, later on at the end it was like a different person was trading, far more aggressive and confident and expecting to make money from every race easily.

Heres the answer to the earlier graph. I'll have to find a more interesting and extreme one for next time

http://i48.tinypic.com/2ue5rpc.jpg

[bazbaz]

Nothing the matter with today. ;)


That's nothing Geek, one of your old mates over at ST made £417 the other day from racing alone ;)

[The Geek]

What can I say. I'm just not worthy of the column space on my own forum. :(

[bazbaz]

A long time on and off trading bazbaz, I used to do contract work and do a year trading then back to work for a year to keep my hand in. Currently on a two year stretch trading as moved house and got sick of the travelling for the work.

I'll happily play outside the front 3 so the liquidity isn't that much of a problem when 2 or 3 ticks for £100 will easily get my £10 or so for the race at 0.5 per tick. I rarely cross the spread so as long as I don't go in too heavy for the market the bets usually get taken and just drip my bets if £100 or so would spook the market.

The money's been coming into the markets late for quite some time now but I generally play late maybe 2mins max before the off as I find any moves are more predictable and sustained. You'll also find that even though the market may look thin there's quite a bit of underlying activity so it's a case of 'got to be in it to win it' and I'll happily stick in offers of which the majority will go unmatched but at least I'd be happy with my entry once they are matched rather than trying to chase or force the market.

It's days like today that are the worst with just low grade NH meetings, at least the AW stuff like Kempton/Wolves is usually competitve and always enough liquidity around for me. Found today a stuggle but it's just a case of waiting for the opportunity to come up the pounce, hardest part is waiting for those opportunities and avoiding getting involved on early false moves thats why I avoid looking at the market til around 2mins as I rarely get early movements correct as a tick trader. I've been playing long enough now to know those opportunities will come along sometime during the day and certainly during the week so it's just a case of waiting for them.

http://img233.imageshack.us/img233/9468/36810762.jpg

Interesting. A lot of people I talk to are the opposite and trade only up to the last couple of minutes as they don't like the speed at which the money can come. Tomorrow should see a bit more money, and earlier, as we've got a couple on RUK

[RonA]

well I'm getting more consistant 3 wrong out of 3 :)
I think I'll try trading the opposite to my predictions I should make a fortune

[bazbaz]

What can I say. I'm just not worthy of the column space on my own forum. :(

Try not to be too hard on yourself there, obviously you're struggling to keep up but if it's any comfort my ebook is 99% finished now and should set you on the right path ;)

Incidentally. What has PeeWees reaction been to your toy? He must be worried you're offering something for free that he charges for

[1/4 of a millionaire fund]

Nothing the matter with today. ;)



Nice going Geek, seems it's not only programming you excel at :) if you can pick that up on a day like today you must be raking it in on Saturdays.

Any decent wins in there or evenly spread thru the day ?

[The Geek]

Incidentally. What has PeeWees reaction been to your toy? He must be worried you're offering something for free that he charges for

For some strange reason he hasn't bothered to tell me. I don't think he likes me very much. :rolleyes:

I'm guessing he's a little pished, as there seem to be quite a few long term BD people that have moved over to TT for reasons other than price. So I can only guess that his programmers keyboard is in meltdown as we speak.

[The Geek]

Nice going Geek, seems it's not only programming you excel at :) if you can pick that up on a day like today you must be raking it in on Saturdays.

Any decent wins in there or evenly spread thru the day?

TBH, I don't spend much time playing with Betfair. In between the kids, my clients and TT I rarely get a spare day at the moment. I also get very bored if I do it for more than 3 days at a time.

I've made a few k this year which paid for all the holidays, but you shouldn't mistake me for a real trader as I just don't have the patience for staring at a ladder 7 days a week.

[RobinHood]

well, at least for some of you guys it was a good day. I ended up losing a big money today cause the market was pretty much moving against me in almost every trade.

I'm hoping to get my todays loss back in thursday, because recently i only trade really well on thursday and friday.

Good luck in your trades guys. :)

[1/4 of a millionaire fund]

Today started off well then just tailed off for me later on. Lost the TV to the kids then the missus for I'm A Celeb so couldn't get a grip on Kempton which is usually a good course for me but a profits a profit so can't complain. 5 meetings scheduled for tomorrow so hopefully things should pick up as more money usually comes in from thursday onwards.

http://img130.imageshack.us/img130/9773/24430913.jpg

[1/4 of a millionaire fund]

OK day here found it all pretty easy going apart from cocking up the last race, cooking the kids tea and one of my offsets wasn't fully matched, as usual they're the ones that win :confused: Own fault for not concentrating fully I suppose , next time they can cook their own food :)

http://img245.imageshack.us/img245/1835/39501884.jpg

[SJD]

Wouldn't normally post my results as they are often littered with In Play and therefore not pure trading. However, today at Wolverhampton the trading was clean and no inplays.

Chuffed to bits with the results

Horse Racing Showing 1 - 20 of 26 markets

Market Start time Settled date Profit/loss (£)
Horse Racing / Wolv 3rd Dec : 1m1f Hcap 03-Dec-09 18:15 03-Dec-09 18:19 16.72
Horse Racing / Wolv 3rd Dec : 6f Nursery 03-Dec-09 17:45 03-Dec-09 17:48 10.81
Horse Racing / Wolv 3rd Dec : 6f Mdn Stks 03-Dec-09 17:15 03-Dec-09 17:20 27.65
Horse Racing / Wolv 3rd Dec : 7f Hcap 03-Dec-09 16:45 03-Dec-09 16:48 20.83
Horse Racing / Wolv 3rd Dec : 1m Sell Stks 03-Dec-09 16:15 03-Dec-09 16:19 30.02
Horse Racing / Wolv 3rd Dec : 1m Hcap 03-Dec-09 15:45 03-Dec-09 15:48 2.11

[1/4 of a millionaire fund]

Good going SJD , they're decent amounts per market it's all about consistent wins rather than big wins/losses. £20 or so a race soon adds up with the amount of races throughout the week. I wouldn't worry about posting inplay results if thats part of your betting strategy if it isn't and it's costing rather than winning money that's a whole new ball game :)

[The Geek]

Do you think we should rename this thread "The official P&L thread." :D

[SJD]

Good going SJD , they're decent amounts per market it's all about consistent wins rather than big wins/losses. £20 or so a race soon adds up with the amount of races throughout the week. I wouldn't worry about posting inplay results if thats part of your betting strategy if it isn't and it's costing rather than winning money that's a whole new ball game :)

My blog is called - No More In Play;)

The Wolverhampton meeting was the first time I've achieved it:D

[neeeel]

nice going SJD glad youre getting it together, I will have to catch up now

[SJD]

nice going SJD glad youre getting it together, I will have to catch up now

Keep fighting the inner demons

[1/4 of a millionaire fund]

My blog is called - No More In Play;)

The Wolverhampton meeting was the first time I've achieved it:D

Hopefully seeing the profit from avoiding in running will spur you on SJD. I wouldn't get too hung up on the in play thing though, obviously if it's happening every race you really need to sort it out but it's something most traders can't avoid. I think you just need to try and have a consistent approach to when things go wrong and rigidly stick to it. I have a fair few races go in play on me each week just because I play late on. They rarely go in my favour because I'll always try and close asap even if it means taking a loss which is generally the case as the in play markets will never be as tight or liquid as pre race markets.

The problem with gambling on the price going in your favour is that we'll always close too early when the green pops up and close too late for a bigger red once it's gone against us. Long term we just can't win taking those bad value prices as even though the majority will be small greens it only takes one loss to wipe the lot out and more. Unless you can race read you'd actually be better off letting the race run unclosed as the pre off market is pretty accurate and things would even out long term.

[1/4 of a millionaire fund]

Do you think we should rename this thread "The official P&L thread." :D

Ooops probably best we give it back to baz

[bazbaz]

http://i47.tinypic.com/vpyrrc.jpg

This is from Wednesday, I spend yesterday doing some research instead, although I ended up falling asleep half way through the afternoon so I can't say I learned a great deal!

Ooops probably best we give it back to baz

Feel free to keep posting, it makes things far more interesting, even if your results are making me look like an amateur ;)

By the way Millionaire man, you said about how on one course you always trade well... Do you trade differently according to which course they're at? TBH its not something I really think about, apart from the obvious difference between say the big races at Cheltenham and say Lingfield

[jimrobo]

I find some courses I always struggle and other courses I do well on. I have no idea why! I think it may be linked to the type of races run at the courses. For instance exeter I know I always either struggle to make anything or just make very small amounts. If there is an exeter card on I will lower my stakes intentionaly for those markets.

[1/4 of a millionaire fund]

Feel free to keep posting, it makes things far more interesting, even if your results are making me look like an amateur ;)

By the way Millionaire man, you said about how on one course you always trade well... Do you trade differently according to which course they're at? TBH its not something I really think about, apart from the obvious difference between say the big races at Cheltenham and say Lingfield

To be fair I don't there's much difference other than I'll do some of the place stuff too, our averages are pretty much similar at around £10 per market.

I don't consciously trade differently just think some courses suit my betting style more, the AW tracks kempton and Wolves generally have more competitive racing so certain prices can remain static as opposed to uncompetive meetings where theres a short price fav. At those courses any small % shift in the fav is reflected further down the line in order to mantain close to 100%. That 1% shift can mean the outsiders can jump all over the place as it's got to be absorbed somewhere and punters will generally hit the outsiders making it riskier, with competitive racing any movement around the top two is easily absorbed with the other runners making large swings less likely. The same goes for the bigger meetings as it's more competitive and prices more static due to the large amounts on offer and fact prices have been set well in advance.

I'm generally looking for 2 or 3 ticks so the more static the market the better for me as I'm just taking advantage of the 'noise' in the market. That's why I'm happier to play late on when the majority of any gambles have shown their hand so much less likely to lay some 10/1 that gets punted to 5's

[jimrobo]

yeh there was one on the BD forums a while back that wasreally good. I had about 4 months of data in it but haven't updated it n a while. You could split your results down into days, courses, race distances and race classes. All sorted by averages per race and could drill down ito the actual results.

Showed a pretty big margin between certain courses!

[apowers]

Hopefully seeing the profit from avoiding in running will spur you on SJD. I wouldn't get too hung up on the in play thing though, obviously if it's happening every race you really need to sort it out but it's something most traders can't avoid. I think you just need to try and have a consistent approach to when things go wrong and rigidly stick to it. I have a fair few races go in play on me each week just because I play late on. They rarely go in my favour because I'll always try and close asap even if it means taking a loss which is generally the case as the in play markets will never be as tight or liquid as pre race markets.

The problem with gambling on the price going in your favour is that we'll always close too early when the green pops up and close too late for a bigger red once it's gone against us. Long term we just can't win taking those bad value prices as even though the majority will be small greens it only takes one loss to wipe the lot out and more. Unless you can race read you'd actually be better off letting the race run unclosed as the pre off market is pretty accurate and things would even out long term.

Some very wise words here indeed. It's no good greening or redding up in play unless you are going to do it everytime. All the time you close trades which would have won you far more if you left them, will be completely wiped out by that one trade that went against you from the off and you just couldn't get out of. If it's one thing I have learnt in a year and a half of trying to crack trading, is you have to be consistent with how you deal with situations, good or bad.

[SJD]

Some very wise words here indeed. It's no good greening or redding up in play unless you are going to do it everytime. All the time you close trades which would have won you far more if you left them, will be completely wiped out by that one trade that went against you from the off and you just couldn't get out of. If it's one thing I have learnt in a year and a half of trying to crack trading, is you have to be consistent with how you deal with situations, good or bad.

Couldn't agree more. It is a battle I am winning. Since switching away from trading the favourite I'm not getting into trading trouble any more and having an easier time of it and exiting positions as quickly as I can whn I do go in play.

Protection of my bank is now paramount.

[1/4 of a millionaire fund]

If it's one thing I have learnt in a year and a half of trying to crack trading, is you have to be consistent with how you deal with situations, good or bad.

Spot on , until you get that consistent approach , good or bad, you never even know if your trading is working. It's all too easy when learning to chuck in the odd lay on an outsider for a mainly green book, let the odd bad trade go in running etc but all it does is hide whether you actually have a winning strategy. Alot of novice traders would probably find those bad habits are just turning their trading wins into an overall loss and accepting those early reds would make a big difference to both the mindset and pnl. But it's something we've all done in our early days and it takes a while for the penny to drop.

Found today quite easy trading and was a bit disappointed I hadn't made more as it felt the wins were piling up early on with a few decent 50's. Was hoping to arrange a night down the pub with some mates but things didn't go as planned and also meant I didn't have much time for trading Wolves which was a pity as it's usually a good course for me. Luckily my bot that runs on a separate account picked up £55 and I made £40 from the I'm a celeb markets which meant I'd made almost £500 on the day so at least the beer moneys there for next week.

http://img687.imageshack.us/img687/5371/botu.jpg

[RonA]

Yeah some great points there MF. I had abit of a purple patch trading last year , well sort of hybrid trading some emotional lays and unplanned in-plays which had the inevitable consequences but as it's been said before you have to accept the losses as soon as possible , if in doubt get out .

[scratch]

Spot on , until you get that consistent approach , good or bad, you never even know if your trading is working. It's all too easy when learning to chuck in the odd lay on an outsider for a mainly green book, let the odd bad trade go in running etc but all it does is hide whether you actually have a winning strategy. Alot of novice traders would probably find those bad habits are just turning their trading wins into an overall loss and accepting those early reds would make a big difference to both the mindset and pnl. But it's something we've all done in our early days and it takes a while for the penny to drop.

This sums it up exactly. :) This is definitely the bit I'm going through now. Throwing in the odd gamble just ruins any track record and you've got to start all over again to know if your strategy is working. Its taking a loss that's toughest.

[1/4 of a millionaire fund]

Good day for me making around £736 from trading and the bot, only annoying part was my Victors Chandlers promo RUK bet won the 20:20 at Wolves as I prefer them to lose for a few reasons.

http://img263.imageshack.us/img263/7665/24671747.jpg

If you haven't taken up Chandlers free RUK bet offer I'd recommend anyone with RUK does it before they withdraw the offer. Not exactly a fortune at a £20 promo bet per month to cover RUK fees but better than paying RUK's ridiculous monthly fee of £20 and it's only a case of doing 10 £5 bets per month which can easily arbed against betfair. Only thing you need to watch out for is the fact they don't give the £20 promo cash to you for winners so it's best to pick a loser with them or ensure you've built up an extra green of £20 on the arbed bet to ensure you don't lose out. The 10 fiver bets are out of your own cash so they make no difference win or lose arbing them.

Here's the link if anyone wants it

http://www.victorchandler.com/vcbet/en-gb/pages/show/75103-racing-uk-offer

[bazbaz]

Friday / Saturday

http://i48.tinypic.com/20fqjdk.jpg

I had a pretty crappy friday, I think I made about 80 quid, something really wound me up before trading and the effect was seen in my p+l. Yesterday I was in a totally different mind frame and it showed in my results. Even if you're only 5% off your top form it can make a big, big difference to your results, at least mine anyway. I go a lot on how the market feels to me. I don't know why exactly but at certain points I can just feel that money is going to be thrown in on one side or another, maybe there are subtle signs that occur seconds before that I pick up on sometimes because I can't claim to be pyschic(!), but this definately occurs quite a bit and is something that can never be taught, you can only pick it up after watching hundreds of markets. Its great when you get that feeling where your mind has become almost completely blank and you are just responding to and reacting to the market in a completely harmonious and natural way, like dancing with a partner or something where you're just following each other as one. Maybe that should be the title of my upcoming ebook, 'Dances with Betfair' ;)

[jibiko]

'Dances with Betfair' ;)

sounds good :)

[Emkayracing]

http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2009/06/27/article-0-0397F7D60000044D-293_468x286.jpg

[1/4 of a millionaire fund]

Decent end to the week, apart from the 3:30 at Lingfield that I made a complete cock up of :(

http://img682.imageshack.us/img682/1087/22927855.jpg

I'll stop posting pnl screenshots now as it is a pain and I only wanted to post a full week for some continuity. It can come across as 'my cocks bigger than yours' type of stuff and plenty out there winning much bigger sums than me and do it in much less markets. Hopefully it'll spur on some of the novice traders to show you don't need to be the Adam Heathcotes etc to win decent amounts per week as those sums soon add up.

[attheraces]

Decent end to the week, apart from the 3:30 at Lingfield that I made a complete cock up of :(

http://img682.imageshack.us/img682/1087/22927855.jpg

I'll stop posting pnl screenshots now as it is a pain and I only wanted to post a full week for some continuity. It can come across as 'my cocks bigger than yours' type of stuff and plenty out there winning much bigger sums than me and do it in much less markets. Hopefully it'll spur on some of the novice traders to show you don't need to be the Adam Heathcotes etc to win decent amounts per week as those sums soon add up.

What happened,did it go inplay?

Regards

[bazbaz]

http://i46.tinypic.com/10ehtz4.jpg

For a sunday I was pretty damn happy with that. I've been using a new strategy the last couple of days that I was looking into on thursday. You've always got to be looking at new ideas and how to develop new strategies in this game, though I think if I got to Heathcote like figures I'd just take it easy. I'm surprised by how much money was about for a sunday, maybe its just me but in general liquidity seems to be much better now than a couple of weeks ago, maybe the jumps season is starting to get into swing properly now :)

[scratch]

It can come across as 'my cocks bigger than yours' type of stuff and plenty out there winning much bigger sums than me and do it in much less markets. Hopefully it'll spur on some of the novice traders to show you don't need to be the Adam Heathcotes etc to win decent amounts per week as those sums soon add up.

... I don't think anybody here sees it that way, I for one am grateful that you take the time to post and inspire me to press on. Its tough at times an looking at genuine guys like you has kept me going. Keep it up.:)

[Anonymous]

Thought I would join in the party and just show what a bit of consistency can achieve. I don't tend to get the big wins but lots of smaller wins with few losses. Here are my P&L's from the weekend. I managed to keep the losses down to 3 races which were losses of £5.40, £0.88 and £1.39 from a total of 57 races.

Millionaire - I see you from time to time have the odd very big win or loss, would these normally come about from a trade going inplay or is it just you got on the right side/wrong side of a good/bad move?

[attheraces]

Thought I would join in the party and just show what a bit of consistency can achieve. I don't tend to get the big wins but lots of smaller wins with few losses. Here are my P&L's from the weekend. I managed to keep the losses down to 3 races which were losses of £5.40, £0.88 and £1.39 from a total of 57 races.

Millionaire - I see you from time to time have the odd very big win or loss, would these normally come about from a trade going inplay or is it just you got on the right side/wrong side of a good/bad move?

Very consistant results,do you scalp or swing trade?


Regards

[Anonymous]

I would say in most peoples minds what I do is a mixture of the two but I personally don't buy into one kind or the other but that argument has been done to death already. I don't think it is possible to split trades into one sort or the other a lot of the time. But most if not almost all of my trades are short term trades in the seconds as opposed to minutes.

[rockaren]

thats very nice results from an Anonymous ;)

well done mate

[1/4 of a millionaire fund]

What happened,did it go inplay?

Regards

One of the perils of having kids I'm afraid, I was actually up on the race and had an offset in place but called away and the bet wasn't taken before the off. Missed the last three races cos of them but worked in my favour for the Punchestown race as a back offset of £20 wasn't taken so swings and roundabouts I suppose.

Didn't think I had any big wins or losses this week anonymous, only 'big' losses this week I've blamed the kids for :) and neither were too big @ 118 and 123, don't think I even had a single winner over £100 this week. Generally my trading consists of slowly plodding through the day with relatively small trades waiting to pounce when I think the right market comes along. If I think the direction is more or less certain to move in one direction I'm happy to up the stakes and go in a lot larger on more than one occasion so I suppose that's why some of the races are higher/lower than others cos maybe each tick on them is winning/losing me 20+, think the biggest race was about +90 and turned over 3.5K on the fav in ticks to get that.

[Anonymous]

Sorry MF I got your P&L's mixed up with Baz, he seems to have the odd very big win which seemed out of sync with the rest of his results. Just wondered if it was because a trade had gone inrunning by accident as he also seems to have some out of sync very big losses which again I wondered if they were because of going inrunning.

For example on Saturday he had a win of £173 on one race with the next biggest being £61 which is quite a difference - just seemed a bit out of sync to most of his other results so was just curious why that race was so different.

[Talisman]

Enjoying the P&L shots to show consistency, and dont think anyone's doing a cock-comparison at this point.

Seeing the screenies just gives me more energy to get better and confidence that it can be done (particularly as you have a bot getting some good results, MFund).

[1/4 of a millionaire fund]

I agree Talisman, I think bazbaz deserves alot of credit for posting his screenies on the 2 weeks for the rent and this trading diary and hope he continues. We've all been on forums where people will happily cherry pick their trades or screenies to post but I've yet to see one post long term like baz has , good and bad.

It's good that the screenies show the reality of trading these bog standard meetings as everyones posting roughly the same averages of £10 per market but individual markets show they're mainly bread and butter stuff of a few quid whilst waiting for the odd 40/50 to come along to make up that average. They're also showing the main thing that people aren't overreacting to the odd blip as they know those decent wins will come along sometime so no need to try and force the market by taking risks.

[apowers]

MF, what approx size of bank do you use? And do you ever commit your whole bank to a trade??

[SJD]

I agree Talisman, I think bazbaz deserves alot of credit for posting his screenies on the 2 weeks for the rent and this trading diary and hope he continues. We've all been on forums where people will happily cherry pick their trades or screenies to post but I've yet to see one post long term like baz has , good and bad.

It's good that the screenies show the reality of trading these bog standard meetings as everyones posting roughly the same averages of £10 per market but individual markets show they're mainly bread and butter stuff of a few quid whilst waiting for the odd 40/50 to come along to make up that average. They're also showing the main thing that people aren't overreacting to the odd blip as they know those decent wins will come along sometime so no need to try and force the market by taking risks.

I think I first found Bazbaz on the Scumbag Traders forum and checked daily for an update.

For me after reading the Adam Heathcote blog it was a dose of reality in that if you apply yourself and have a strategy or a niche that you can trade in that you can make a decent living from a smaller bank. I've no idea how AH makes the money he makes, he must have a massive bank or very lucky or maybe he is just a trading genius, who knows.

After stumbling across the MF blog I was pleased to see him posting on here. For me the way Bazbaz and MF help others is what I would try to do and not just post how many days I worked this month;)

So thanks for the updates and advice Bazbaz and MF much appreciated.

I'm taking time off to try to make this work, I think I've found a niche for my style (away from the favourites that I just can't read at all) and I have a profit target per day that I think I can achieve. If it does I'm not going to have to go back up to London to work.

My missus thought it was great for the first two weeks but now I'm apparently breaking up her routine:confused:

[1/4 of a millionaire fund]

MF, what approx size of bank do you use? And do you ever commit your whole bank to a trade??

I withdraw down to £5K each week but never use anywhere near that for trades. Max stake is set to £555 but usually play in £100's or £50's depending on the price as I generally play the outsiders. I'd also let any trades be completed on any runner before going in again.

Yep, never been quite sure what to make of AH myself SJD, if I was making £100 per race as he does I'd certainly do the full days racing when working rather than the 10 to 15 he seems to do. It is easy enough to fake results either by arbing across accounts etc but the stuff I've seen on his blog does make me believe he's making those amounts. I reckon he just goes in big for the odd tick and does it very successfully.

Been there SJD, not only don't they have a clue what you're doing they pester you every so often to do something else, after a year or two they realise when to leave you alone :) Luckily we've a few reception rooms so I'm generally left in peace when trading.

[SJD]

I withdraw down to £5K each week but never use anywhere near that for trades. Max stake is set to £555 but usually play in £100's or £50's depending on the price as I generally play the outsiders. I'd also let any trades be completed on any runner before going in again.

Yep, never been quite sure what to make of AH myself SJD, if I was making £100 per race as he does I'd certainly do the full days racing when working rather than the 10 to 15 he seems to do. It is easy enough to fake results either by arbing across accounts etc but the stuff I've seen on his blog does make me believe he's making those amounts. I reckon he just goes in big for the odd tick and does it very successfully.

Been there SJD, not only don't they have a clue what you're doing they pester you every so often to do something else, after a year or two they realise when to leave you alone :) Luckily we've a few reception rooms so I'm generally left in peace when trading.

Two weeks ago my good lady was hoovering as racing started, last week she was sweeping the wood floor with a broom clunking as she did it. Now she wants me to open the Christmas card she got me, just as I'm trying to close for the last at Wolverhampton. Bless her.:)

[scratch]

... women can site mental cruelty in a murder case, why can't we say 'I was trading the 2:30 at wolverhamton my lud and she spoke to me' ... case dismissed.

[SJD]

... women can site mental cruelty in a murder case, why can't we say 'I was trading the 2:30 at wolverhamton my lud and she spoke to me' ... case dismissed.

If it happens I'll call you for the defence:)

[rockaren]

I always ask myself a question, wondering how BIG guys are doing when it goes wrong. I mean are you using stop loss set up for x ticks or waiting and trading out at different points ?

I was trying to use stop loss in something else but now trading out manually using The Toy and almost every time waiting too long.

[bazbaz]

I always ask myself a question, wondering how BIG guys are doing when it goes wrong. I mean are you using stop loss set up for x ticks or waiting and trading out at different points ?

I was trying to use stop loss in something else but now trading out manually using The Toy and almost every time waiting too long.

I don't know of any successful trader, big or small, that actually uses a stop loss. They can be activated for a variety of reasons (e.g. when theres a volume spike), some of the times you really wouldn't want them to be activated, and certainly if you're using large stakes, using a stop loss would make your bets seem obvious and if the market changes and they go unmatched then people will know you're trying to get out of trouble and push the price further against you

[bazbaz]

Wed / Thurs

http://i47.tinypic.com/dovrk2.jpg

I had to stop early yesterday due to the terrible API, got lucky on the last race having to get out in play using the betfair website. Lets hope its better today

What happens next to this one?

http://i50.tinypic.com/52g85y.jpg

[bazbaz]

http://i48.tinypic.com/15g3sp.jpg

I wasnt on great form today, but got away with it I suppose due to experience and luck. I guess you can't always be at your best. I thought the markets were pretty decent today though. I Thought it was a bit ridiculous southwell starting at 11.30 though. I decided to have lunch early due to this (normally I eat about 2 or 3) and I found that this really messed my trading up for half an hour or so. Same thing happens if I have a hot drink too close to trading - my body gets warmer and I make rash decisions, like I do when it gets really hot in summer. Maybe I'm just a sensitive chap or something lol but I really have to think about these things and how I prepare for trading as it makes such a difference to my p+l. I suppose you have to make decisions so quickly and then carry them out so quickly that you really need to be 100% to make the best of it

[Talisman]

I Thought it was a bit ridiculous southwell starting at 11.30 though. I decided to have lunch early due to this (normally I eat about 2 or 3) and I found that this really messed my trading up for half an hour or so. Same thing happens if I have a hot drink too close to trading - my body gets warmer and I make rash decisions, like I do when it gets really hot in summer. Maybe I'm just a sensitive chap or something lol but I really have to think about these things and how I prepare for trading as it makes such a difference to my p+l. I suppose you have to make decisions so quickly and then carry them out so quickly that you really need to be 100% to make the best of it

It was good for me that you guys started so early, it was only 10:30pm my time and I made consistent profits for a bit because I wasn't nodding off over my keyboard yet. :D

[bazbaz]

It was good for me that you guys started so early, it was only 10:30pm my time and I made consistent profits for a bit because I wasn't nodding off over my keyboard yet. :D

lol where are you trading from?

[Talisman]

lol where are you trading from?

Australia. :) Just finishing up my UK session now. Slowly getting better.

[attheraces]

Australia. :) Just finishing up my UK session now. Slowly getting better.

How do you find the response times over there,do they allow you to scalp the markets?

Regards

[bazbaz]

http://i49.tinypic.com/33ll66o.jpg

[Talisman]

How do you find the response times over there,do they allow you to scalp the markets?

Regards

Response time is ~ 400ms on my connection. It can get down to 300ms on a decent 6mbps connection, and is quite manageable. Scalping isn't as easy on the Australian races, however, particularly if you're looking to get into a gap created by a big move, or a break. To compare, on the Australian races I usually trade at around 130ms, and on my 6mbps connection the response time is 30ms.

I swing trade the UK markets, so it's a complete change in strategy for me, and an expensive lesson to (still) be learning.

[bazbaz]

http://i49.tinypic.com/2h3tu6r.jpg

Well that was something of a disaster. First race back after a two day break and I let one go in play and can't get out. It was quite a ridiculous mistake really if you was watching what I was doing but I wasn't really prepared at all to be trading really, I'd not long got out of bed and just wasn't ready for the competitiveness of the markets. That's the trouble with doing this day in day out - it only takes one lapse and you can lose a good few days pay (or worse.) The rest of the day then becomes a case of playing catch up which lead me to trading far more aggressively than I should have for what were pretty poor markets, so I end up making 40 one race and then losing 40 the next, whereas on a good day I'd have made 10 pound in both and been happy with that.

Anyway by my calculations there are 6 days that I'll be trading until Christmas, I'll do boxing day then have a few days off until the new year. My goal is simply to be as professional as is humanly possible the rest of the year, make a grand during this time to tide me over and come back refreshed after a good break.

[nigelbleddfa]

I'm sorry you lost but I had an awful day too. My stakes were much lower than yours but I still couldn't achieve any consistency. I played with a small bank and this meant that I had to back before I could lay so was only able to bet in one direction. Also, there were many races today where the first three in the betting were all being backed at the same time, or so it seemed. Couple of times, the second favourite went out making me think the favourite would shorten. No, it didn't , it shortened as well as other horses further down the pecking order shortened.
My screen shot will stay under wraps as it is X rated :)

[bazbaz]

I might be wrong on this as its hard to really gauge the markets when you're frustrated and might be thinking they're crap when really you're the one whos not trading well, but I thought the markets were pretty poor today, certainly from a scalping perspective, the fill rate wasn't great and I remember thinking that the only ones making any real money would have been those who control the markets, particularly the front few.

[old geezer]

Hi Bazbaz
Read your posts with interest, thank you for the helpful comments that you include.
Appreciate your honesty in putting up your P&L when you have a bad day.
best wishes for Christmas and a profitable New Year

[bazbaz]

Hi Bazbaz
Read your posts with interest, thank you for the helpful comments that you include.
Appreciate your honesty in putting up your P&L when you have a bad day.
best wishes for Christmas and a profitable New Year

Thanks, at least you know I'm not making them up when I show ones like today ;)

[rockaren]

I guess it was 2 weeks ago I did exactly same misstake. Second race of the day and trade went wrong, ended going InPlay and BIG loss to start my trading session for that day :(

Know how it feels, but you are a great trader and I m sure you will be back on track very soon ;)

good luck

[1/4 of a millionaire fund]

Unlucky Bazbaz, happens to us all, no matter how long we've been trading there's always one that slips through everynow and then.

[bazbaz]

http://i45.tinypic.com/13zzejn.jpg

Thanks for the encouragement guys. Thanks also to betfair for taking last weeks premium charge DURING trading time which totally confused me for a while ;) Much better day today, mostly helped by getting on 2 or 3 decent gambles.

Always interesting to note how much extra unmatched money there is across the card on RUK tracks, the sole purpose of which is to control the markets. I wonder if its the same person controlling the price on every single runner, I'm sure whoever is doing this can't be doing it alone anyway, not even on one horse. My hunch is they probably work in teams where they employ people purely to sit there and put in orders that are never intended to get matched across the card and pull them when necessary. This kind of thing happens in the city all the time. Would be interesting to know how they do it. I expect at least part of the operation is computerised. It kind of makes me laugh when people complain about this 'new' guy chucking up huge amount of cash on both sides to bully the market how he wants it, when people have been bullying prices like this (albeit in a more sophisticated manner) for at least the 2 and a half years I've been doing this on pretty much ALL the fancied horses, or at least when the markets are stable enough to do so and enough money is poring through (hence why it is more noticeable on RUK than ATR race.) Anyway good luck to them for being clever enough, they must be making a fortune!

[nigelbleddfa]

http://i45.tinypic.com/13zzejn.jpg


I expect at least part of the operation is computerised. It kind of makes me laugh when people complain about this 'new' guy chucking up huge amount of cash on both sides to bully the market how he wants it, when people have been bullying prices like this (albeit in a more sophisticated manner) for at least the 2 and a half years I've been doing this on pretty much ALL the fancied horses, or at least when the markets are stable enough to do so and enough money is poring through (hence why it is more noticeable on RUK than ATR race.) Anyway good luck to them for being clever enough, they must be making a fortune!

I believe that you are almost certainly right. In my many hours of using pen, paper and calculator I hit on the idea of controlling the whole of a horse race market by manipulating the amounts available. If I could, I would end up being in a similar position to that of a market maker in spread betting. Playing around with enormous amounts of fake money just to be able to cream off some of the real stuff for myself.
Unfortunately, I am totally lacking the necessary software or the means of getting it. The guys who are doing it must already be very wealthy as they can afford to make huge mistakes. They are traders working at a much higher level than little old me.
It must be very nice to be able to sit at a computer in the true and certain knowledge that you are going to win and cannot lose.

[bazbaz]

You'd need many years experience of the market, probably 50k minimum spread across many different accounts for your team members, offices where you could work together etc. Even then you'd take the odd big hit when an unexpected gamble comes from knowhere, but I expect they minimise this perhaps by gaining contacts in the racing industry, but certainly they would have very accurate models of what to expect from any type of market so they would know when and when not to do things. Also their spoofing strategies are very complex, its rarely a case of just build up fake money on one side and then make it disappear, they have many different ways to make you do things, double bluffing, triple bluffingm you name it, always hard to keep ahead of them!

[Talisman]

I dont watch the RUK markets, but there can't be any/many plungers if they're manipulating that easily. I do some reasonably sized bets in Australia, and if I went in, saw something locked in at $3 by some big money seemingly happy to lay it at that price, and I would settle for $2.50, I'd smash it. I suppose I trust my own judgement over theirs, in this case, for punting rather than trading. :)

I'll have to check the RUK markets out and see what you mean, at any rate.

[bazbaz]

I've been getting too lazy to post here lol. TBH I don't think posting is making me any more disciplined now, in the short term it can be great for focusing but not so sure about the long term. Anyway I just wanted to with everyone a great Christmas and a profitable new year :D

[BruceLee1973]

Have a good one your self Baz.My new years res is NOT TO GO IN PLAY how long will that last.

[rockaren]

Thanx baz and same to you mate ;)

[bazbaz]

Have a good one your self Baz.My new years res is NOT TO GO IN PLAY how long will that last.

Me too lol. I read that if you want to change a behaviour you're better off giving yourself a command in the positive (such as 'finish well before the race starts') rather than a negative command (i.e DONT do something.) Apparently if you tell yourself not to do something enough the subconscious takes it as a bet and makes you even more likely to do it

[jibiko]

http://i45.tinypic.com/zn67us.jpg

vqaFkC0EMmQ

[jibiko]

http://i50.tinypic.com/fvhgnd.jpg

[smudger78]

Just read this thread from start to finish and feel quite inspired. It's good to see that consistent profits are achievable if you persevere and are willing to listen and learn as you go.

Baz/MF - You two guys seem like you have got to the level of being reasonably consistent - how long has it taken you?

I'm starting out from just about scratch and I'd really appreciate any advice you guys can offer. For me a result would be to be able to consistently make £50 an afternoon but that seems a world away right now. Im just exploring the Toy at the moment and will then start dippping my toes in for £2 stakes just to practice scalping and disciplining myself to get out if the market starts to go against me. Is scalping the best place to start as a novice or should i look into swing trading? Or both?

So many questions eh!?

Cheers and heres to a good 2010!

Smudger

[bazbaz]

Just read this thread from start to finish and feel quite inspired. It's good to see that consistent profits are achievable if you persevere and are willing to listen and learn as you go.

Baz/MF - You two guys seem like you have got to the level of being reasonably consistent - how long has it taken you?

I'm starting out from just about scratch and I'd really appreciate any advice you guys can offer. For me a result would be to be able to consistently make £50 an afternoon but that seems a world away right now. Im just exploring the Toy at the moment and will then start dippping my toes in for £2 stakes just to practice scalping and disciplining myself to get out if the market starts to go against me. Is scalping the best place to start as a novice or should i look into swing trading? Or both?

So many questions eh!?

Cheers and heres to a good 2010!

Smudger

Scalping or swing trading? What will suit you best will probably depend on your temperament, also some markets are more set up for swing trading than others, at times scalping is all you can do. Most would say to start with scalping, but you'll never get rich with this alone. It took me nearly a year of £2 stakes before I consistently could make a profit, certain eureka moments happened during one month and that was when I went 'pro'. All I would advise doing is to mess around with as many markets as possible with minimum stakes or, even better, just observe the markets (recording videos of ladders and watching the same race over and over to work out whats happening and identify recurring patterns is great for learning) as much as you can. You might find the odd useful bit of info online but mostly it will have to come from your own observations, no one is giving their 'secrets' away Im afraid lol, although certainly in my case the basis of most of my good trading is a mixture of discipline, a detached attitude, and enough intuitiveness (you only get this in time) and creativity to respond to whats happening, because every market is brand new. Remember that you cant always be right, I make hundreds of scratch trades every day, and plenty of losing ones too, anything can happen out there. It takes a lot of work to get there and only suits a small percentage of people - ask the geek how many people signed up for racing traders software and then cancelled. Thousands of newbies are coming into this business all the time, but there are few people making a living from it. People always talk about how much is matched pre race even on a poor race (eg 500k) but a LOAD of that is self matched scratch trades and bots are more and more prevalent. I can account for 5-10 k of that 500k and still only make £10 or so.

Anyway you sound serious so I wish you the best of luck

[scratch]

Nice post:) Hope we get to see some more of your trading next year, I enjoy it and I'm sure lots of others do. A happy and prosperous new year to you!:)

[christof21]

Hi guys, just signed up here last night after a chance reading of someones blog, and it mentioned The Toy software, then I found my way here.

I then spent the next 2-3 hours reading through posts and diaries, and found it very encouraging and motivating as I was starting to lose my motivation for pre race trading yesterday after a stupid mistake.

I had been making really good, consistent gains. Getting in and out of the market for a tic or 2 profit, occasionally catching a nice swing. I had taken my bank from £35 to £80 in a couple of weeks, but then had my brain fart moment yesterday. I got on the wrong side of a move, which isn't unheard of. When this happens, I usually get out quickly for a small loss, then get back in the trade. However, yesterday I managed to freeze, watch the ladder go £1.50 then £1.80 red with about 1min to go. My liability was £70 at the time, so for some reason my brain thought it was a good idea to let the race start and "see" if it comes back to me. Net result =£70 down. So rather than do the sensible thing and take a small £1.80 loss, and still live, I wiped out pretty all my capital.

What a c0ck!!

So I was feeling a little down last night, but feel rejuvenated now, and aware of my mistake, so I can avoid it again.

NEVER GO IN-RUNNING. That's my new mantra.

[Crazeewon]

Hi Christof, we've all done just what you did (more then once!). The only difference between you and us is that you've been brave enough to publicly admit it. Hope you learn from it, I'm not sure I have yet!

[jibiko]

Hi guys, just signed up here last night after a chance reading of someones blog, and it mentioned The Toy software, then I found my way here.

I then spent the next 2-3 hours reading through posts and diaries, and found it very encouraging and motivating as I was starting to lose my motivation for pre race trading yesterday after a stupid mistake.

I had been making really good, consistent gains. Getting in and out of the market for a tic or 2 profit, occasionally catching a nice swing. I had taken my bank from £35 to £80 in a couple of weeks, but then had my brain fart moment yesterday. I got on the wrong side of a move, which isn't unheard of. When this happens, I usually get out quickly for a small loss, then get back in the trade. However, yesterday I managed to freeze, watch the ladder go £1.50 then £1.80 red with about 1min to go. My liability was £70 at the time, so for some reason my brain thought it was a good idea to let the race start and "see" if it comes back to me. Net result =£70 down. So rather than do the sensible thing and take a small £1.80 loss, and still live, I wiped out pretty all my capital.

What a c0ck!!

So I was feeling a little down last night, but feel rejuvenated now, and aware of my mistake, so I can avoid it again.

NEVER GO IN-RUNNING. That's my new mantra.

Hi Christof, we've all done just what you did (more then once!). The only difference between you and us is that you've been brave enough to publicly admit it. Hope you learn from it, I'm not sure I have yet!

http://i47.tinypic.com/11095c7.jpg

[christof21]

Hi Christof, we've all done just what you did (more then once!). The only difference between you and us is that you've been brave enough to publicly admit it. Hope you learn from it, I'm not sure I have yet!

It's not the first time I've done it, but it certainly feels like the most painful. I think that's mainly due to the fact that I had felt that I was making some sort headway into my trading, and I was feeling pretty confident in my abilities.

Like I said I was very angry with myself and a bit down about it last night. Once that initial run of emotions had worn off, I actually analysed what I'd been doing, and but for that mistake, I was happy with how I had traded the rest of the day.

[scratch]

What size T-Shirt would you like, we have all sizes here....:)

[christof21]

What size T-Shirt would you like, we have all sizes here....:)

Lmao.

Medium/X-Large lol.

[nosferatu]

brain fart moment

Like it. I'm sure we've all had a few of those.

Sometimes the smell in here is unbelievable :eek:

[inandout]

a good read, why did you stop the diary Bazbaz?

[bazbaz]

a good read, why did you stop the diary Bazbaz?

Short term it was good for a boost of discipline. But long term I think to do well in any 'sport' you need a certain amount of self forgetfullness rather than constantly thinking 'how much money have I made so far'.

That and I'm extremely lazy :)

[inandout]

Ok, thanks for taking the time to reply and all the best for the future

[TonyK]

Hey Baz, enjoyed reading this. Do you mind me asking what your staking strategy/working bank is? Also, someone mentioned earlier in the thread about the pattern of your p&l...sometimes you'd get a big win - is that when you let it go in trade or are you using higher stakes for that/huge swing etc? I think the example was £165 where that was a lot higher than other trades.

Thanks.