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View Full Version : How about a "Slope" bet ?



BettingSherlock
5th November 2009, 06:02 AM
If you don't know what a Slope bet is don't worry, i just invented it :D
It probably exists under a different name but anyhow here goes...

A "Slope" bet is placing a stake spread out over a range of ticks using a slope percentage. This requires a setting for the slope angle. Example:

Current back price is 1.95
Stake amount is set to 100
Slope is set to 30%

"Back Slope bet" is place following back bets:
1.95 = 30
1.96 = 21
1.97 = 14
1.98 = 10
1.99 = 7
2.00 = 5
2.02 = 3
2.04 = 3

So spread the total stake over a number of ticks using a slope.
In this case i rounded off and stopped when the next stake size would be less than the Betfair minimum. (i think in euro's so 2 is minimal for me) Personally not too concerned with the details like round offs and end of slope. The key is to be able to place a stake spread out over a series of ticks.

Another example, much steaper slope set at 60%
1.95 = 60
1.96 = 24
1.97 = 9
1.98 = 4

And variation on the theme would be the "Reverse slope" where the numbers are the same but the bets placed in reversed order:
1.95 = 4
1.96 = 9
1.97 = 24
1.98 = 60

Don't think there's a need for a specific cancel function, the current standard cancel function should do fine.

Haven't used the "stop-loss" tool(s) yet myself but i suppose they apply just like with any other bets.

Been wanting something like this for quite some time but using the website it's just too tedious and takes way too much time. Inside a tool like this however i would find it usefull for a number of trading strategies.

Thoughts ?

PFY
5th November 2009, 06:58 AM
This would have to be for The Geek to decide ultimately, and also how much of a priority he'd give it if he were to agree on including it.

Just for my understanding, is this where your staking rule would be
1) Start with an overall stake
2) Stake a set percentage of whatever is left of the overall stake
3) If there's still money in the pot, change the odds by one tick and go back to step 2

BettingSherlock
5th November 2009, 07:09 AM
Yep, that would be it, i suppose there's a few ways it could be implemented.
As long as i can fire off a series of bets spread over a range of ticks, i'm happy.

Haven't thought how it would fit into the user interface, idea needs to get past fase 1 first, some people agreeing with me it would be usefull :D

Neo
5th November 2009, 12:36 PM
I like this idea.

Could be an option on the right click.

jimrobo
5th November 2009, 12:39 PM
ok what would you use it for?

BettingSherlock
5th November 2009, 01:10 PM
Sometimes i trade with the intention of hedging in a relatively short timeperiod.

Simple example would be football where i back correct score 0-0, then place hedging bets in a series, the longer it stays 0-0 the more ticks go down the more gets hedged.

Back 0-0 100 @ 10
Lay 0-0 50 @ 9.8
Lay 0-0 25 @ 9.6
Lay 0-0 12 @ 9.4
Lay 0-0 6 @ 9.2
Lay 0-0 3 @ 9.0
Lay 0-0 3 @ 8.8

So the longer it stays 0-0 the more gets hedged so i end up with a profit on 0-0 and break even on the rest. Leaving me with a choice to lay more or hedge the market.

Plenty variations to this theme.
A reverse one would be to Lay 1+ goals then place a series of Back bets to hedge.

Not everybodies cup of tea of course but works for me.
At the moment i only do this if it's pre-match when i got time to calculate and place the bets. And even then i usually enter stake amounts that are approximately a portion of the total. So would be nice to be able to do it in one go.

BettingSherlock
5th November 2009, 01:25 PM
Another thing i would like to do but haven't tried yet because there really just isn't time to place the bets is with tennis.

When a tennis match gets to a dead moment, like right after a set completes, you get a situation where the odds on the players can fluctuate. Traders use this situation to place both a back and lay bet one or 2 ticks apart. Well known technique as i understand it.

I'd like to do that but with a series of bets rather than a single one.
Of course you can place multiple combinations of back/lay bets each time changing tick distance (and stake possibly) but again it takes time. So would be nice to have it as a series with the larger part of the stake in the middle.

Current prices are 1.40 / 1.41 stake = 40
Back 3 @ 1.44
Back 5 @ 1.43
Back 10 @ 1.42
Back 20 @ 1.41
Lay 20 @ 1.40
Lay 10 @ 1.39
Lay 5 @ 1.38
Lay 3 @ 1.37

Back and Lay bets each places as one slope bet.
Possibly together but haven't given that one much thought yet.

Basically just throwing the idea in the group.

hendry
5th November 2009, 01:30 PM
Kind of spoofing trick.
If done on a market with not so much traded volume, could be quite interesting imo.

The Mole
5th November 2009, 01:32 PM
ok what would you use it for?

It is used quite a lot already. In weak markets where you dont want to frighten off other punters/traders. You spread your counter trade over several positions

gedthedreamer
5th November 2009, 01:46 PM
Never heard it termed as a 'slope' bet but 'drip feed'.

Still, a handy bit of functionality nevertheless.

BettingSherlock
5th November 2009, 01:53 PM
See, i knew i was too good to be true to think i actually invented this :D


It is used quite a lot already. In weak markets where you dont want to frighten off other punters/traders. You spread your counter trade over several positions

In this case would it also be interesting to be able to set the spread of ticks ?
Like place bets 1, 2 or x ticks apart.


Never heard it termed as a 'slope' bet but 'drip feed'.

With a drip feed do you place all bets at the same time, or over a short period of time, or possibly one after the other as soon as the previous one gets matched ?

Knight Rider
5th November 2009, 01:59 PM
a "counter trade drip feed with changeable percentage stake and tick size tool"


.....catchy innit:D

jimrobo
5th November 2009, 04:03 PM
sorry guys but I just don't get it!!

By the time you have gone into tools, selected it as a tool, set your total stake, reverse or non reverse, spread size and whatever slope degree or whatever it was?? you are already on several clicks before you have an order in the market you could have banged in 10 orders manually doing the same thing

BettingSherlock
5th November 2009, 04:24 PM
I would have default setting prepared the way i want them,
i nearly always have the stake i want anyhow,
then it's just a matter of pressing a button.

Ok, have not thought about the details, true,
and in fact i'm not going to as there's people that can do that far better than whatever i can think of,
but i'm sure it can be a lot faster than placing individual bets.

Temujin
6th November 2009, 02:56 AM
I am with JR on this one. Why would you be placing the main bet at odds much worse than your last bet where you are expecting to get matched also? If you are expecting to get matched there, then why would you have already traded out 95% of your stake at odds much worse?

Just looks like another auto tool to me which lessens your profit margins by taking automatic odds rather than the best odds you think you can get by doing it manually.

Why not just set your trade out stake to 20% of the original and drip feed it manually at the best odds you can get at the time?

BettingSherlock
6th November 2009, 05:12 AM
I am with JR on this one. Why would you be placing the main bet at odds much worse than your last bet where you are expecting to get matched also? If you are expecting to get matched there, then why would you have already traded out 95% of your stake at odds much worse?

I'm not with you when you say main bet at worse odds. I'm not actually expecting to get matched at any odds. I know at some point in time there may be an event wich changes everything like a goal being scored. I just don't know when it will happen. I do know that the longer it takes the more the odds will move in a specific direction.


Just looks like another auto tool to me which lessens your profit margins by taking automatic odds rather than the best odds you think you can get by doing it manually.

This comes down to personal preference, different people will handle a trade in different ways.


Why not just set your trade out stake to 20% of the original and drip feed it manually at the best odds you can get at the time?

Having said previous this is an excellent point.
The difference is that with a drip feed you need to be in action all the time. You have to watch the odds move and act on the situation in the market.

By placing all the bets in one go i can just sit back and watch the match progress, watch my bets getting matched one after the other without the need to watch the market by the minute. If all goes according to plan i can just let it ride. I only need to act in case i change my mind and want to cancel or change the on-going trade. Like one team shows unexpected supremacy, or a tennis player looks well below expectation due to injury. The point is i can concentrate more on watching the event than the market.

It's a different style of working i guess.

BettingSherlock
6th November 2009, 05:43 AM
The only thing a "Slope" bet does is divide the stake in portions and place a series of bets in one go. It saves some time in placing the bets. Nothing more, strategy is down to the person not the tool.

The best example would be a tennis match. When a player looks like he's going to get a set what often happens is that the odds overshoot.

Most common situation is when a player at 4-2* breaks to go 5-2.
Down come the odds. If he then struggles in the next game, lets say 15-15, 30-30, no matter if he actually wins the game and the set, what you see is the odds going down from 1.45 to 1.20 only during that game the odds rise back to 1.28 and then when the set is done at 6-2 they settle from 1.28 to 1.25. If it goes to 5-3 then you layed at 1.20 and can back again at 1.40+ waheey.

When i expect this to happen i place a bet at the odds i think the overshoot will go to, like 1.20 and then wait. Because of the timing of the event all i can do is prepare the bet and then hope the overshoot reaches my odds, and hope the market settles above my odds. You cannot drip feed in this situation, you will always be too late chasing the odds. You have to get your bets in anticipating the market move.

Sometimes i don't get matched. Sometimes my odds are too high and i need to take a smal loss. Nature of the beast.

I would love to place a lay slope bet in one go and then simply see how far the odds spike into my range of bets. The bigger the overshoot the more i'll catch it and the more profit i can make.

It can equally go completely wrong, i can catch the whole downspike only to see the market not rise again. But that is down to me choosing to trade this way at the wrong moment. Not down to the tool, that just saves me time placing my bets.

jimrobo
6th November 2009, 12:20 PM
depending on where the odds start from actions in the game will make differing impacts on the number of ticks the price moves.

Because of this you will have to set the spread differently each time. It just won't save you any time from doing it manually. Also doing it manually and learning from your mistakes will help you learn the market better rather than using an automatic tool that either works or doesn't.

There seems to be a lot of stigma attached to having differing trading tools and them helping your trading in some way. Here is a revelation for you.....the best traders use very little in the way of trading tools! They don't have a magic tool that makes them money! They simply trade manually but because they trade manually learn the market better. Trading is about adapting your strategies to what the market is doing in front of you. An automatic tool will never be able to that and thats why the best traders don't use them.

Timstertoo
6th November 2009, 12:33 PM
I'm thinking that this is a clash of disciplines.

I'd see less use for a slope bet in horses and dogs but BettingSherlock has surely opened my eyes to some new approaches with his excellent description of how he wants to use this with football and tennis.

Now I do believe that it's very doable manually. But with his fixed "slope" going down in % it would be a lot easier if he could just fire it in without having to do the math on the seperate stakes. Especially if he's doing a number of matches at the same time.

I've asked Geek once if he could add a function where I could put in a string of bets between two determined odds. I wanted to use that to pop in a lot of very small bets that didn't show up on the ladders of other products and try to exploit that. He told me to not be lazy and just put them in one by one.:p So although this variation is a bit more sexy, and would incorporate my request at the same time, I wouldn't hold my breath for it being done anytime soon.

BettingSherlock
6th November 2009, 12:45 PM
I completely agree with you, up until 2 days ago all i used was the website, plenty to learn but i do ok trading. (sorry no revelation there)

Profit comes from strategy and making the right decisions at the right time. No tool can do that for you.

By your reasoning the Tick staking tool has no reason to exist, you can do that just as fast by placing 2 individual bets. Click,click,done, at whatever tickspread you want each time. Afterall the spread of ticks depends on the market each time doesn't it. Or does it. Wether i change the slope setting each time or not is simply up to me. While we're at it might as well delete the "Fill or kill" , what's difficult about pressing a cancel button when you decide to rather than leave that to a "tool".

All i want is for the tool to divide the stake and place a series of bets in one go. No magic involved, just simple maths.

BettingSherlock
6th November 2009, 12:49 PM
Missed your reply there Timstertoo,
as this is a labour of love i have no intention of asking the Geek to spend time on something that would only be used by a couple of individuals. I've done ok without it for years and i'll continue to do so.

But if there are more people that would find it usefull we can but ask....

Timstertoo
6th November 2009, 01:10 PM
Missed your reply there Timstertoo,
as this is a labour of love i have no intention of asking the Geek to spend time on something that would only be used by a couple of individuals. I've done ok without it for years and i'll continue to do so.

But if there are more people that would find it usefull we can but ask....

Yes but that goes for everything in the Toy I suppose.

This was just my sneaky way of pointing out to the Geek that now 2 seperate persones saw merit for this tool, albeit with different ideas on how to use it.:D

I will experiment with getting the bets in on football and tennis before the event happens I'm aiming for. Like a goal etc. Thanks for that!:)

Knight Rider
7th February 2011, 02:00 PM
This is a slope bet.......
.



http://i656.photobucket.com/albums/uu287/passenger5/laptop.jpg

:D:p;):cool:

The Geek
7th February 2011, 02:04 PM
About time you got back on form. Place gets a bit dull without you & jibiko. :D

peter44
8th February 2011, 08:54 PM
Interesting idea, thanks for starting this thread.

If your trading style involves use of 'slope' staking, then this proposed tool would provide a more efficient way of submitting your position.
It would speed up position entry, & reduce the number of keystrokes required to do so.
Just a means of rapidly submitting series of leg 1 trades, that you would be entering manually anyway.
Does not replace judgement, its a means of implementing your judgement.

I frequently trade like this, manually entering series of leg 1 trades at level stakes, in pre-off racing mkts.
At first tried using varying stakes, but takes far too long, as have to keep moving cursor to top of screen to select the new stake from stake boxes.
It also means having to take eyes of price action while do this.
So I just keep it simple & stick to level stakes, so can keep full attention on price action.