Tsonga odds.

[jimmy]

I placed a speculative bet on Tsonga when he was getting beat in the Federer match at big odds,matched prices from 130 to 200 stake about 90 quid.I stand to make about 15 grand if he wins but I dont know alot about tennis odds and was wondering if anyone could give me probable odds if he gets to the final playing A Nadal and B Murray thanks.

[petecuff]

If I were you, I'd green up now and don't worry about him having to beat 2 more people to get £15k, just take the (if £15k for the win is right) £1.5k+ guaranteed, and enjoy the semis rather than sweating and biting your nails all the way through, praying for the underdog!


Back £90 at 170 = profit £15,210
Lay £1740 at 8.8 (current odds) = liability £13,572

Tsonga wins, you win £1556.10
Anyone else wins, you win £1567.50

Go!

[jimmy]

Federer was 6/4 fav for the tournament before match he has to at least have a chance.I definately think he will get to final that why im looking for the odds.

[TRADER68]

I dont know that much about tennis either but the semi prices would appear to be out of sinc somewhere (based on rankings).I feel the federer game must have taken much emotional strain on Tsonga.I did back him but sadly not at your odds or at the stage in the game you had.Dont let your heart rule your head,you are now looking at a different trade.Do the sensible thing and take the biggest chunk out and leave a wee bit in to celebrate if the unlikely occurs.
Whatever happens i wish you the best of luck.:)

[Cran]

I'll go and lay Tonga, as my tennis bets always lose, and then you are guaranteed to win :cool:

[LuckyYou]

I am not a Gamble lover. If I were you, i'd lay tsonga for sure. 1.5k is good reward don't you think?
But ofc this is my point of view. You have your own. I wish you good luck - you prolly would need it...

[jimmy]

I am at least letting the bet run through the semi I will make a decision on the final if I get there.

[CPC]

That's what I would do. Maybe i'm a gambler at heart, but the reward is great here. What made you put the bet on in the 1st place?

[jimmy]

I just thought the odds were overpriced at the time considering it was a quarter final

[Temujin]

Why don't you lay out half of it? Then see how you go in the semis? No point working out what to do after the semis if he loses next match.

To answer your question though, they each have a market share. Once one gets knocked out, that market share gets distributed amongst the others. For the purposes of this exercise, lets say equally.

Right now, market share suggests Nadal 42%, Novak 30%, Murray 18%, Tsonga 12% (all rough figures).....

Nadal v Murray
Tsonga v Novak

Assuming Tsonga gets through, 30% of the market is already gone.
Plus, either 18 from Murray losing, or 42 from Nadal getting through.

Tsonga vs Nadal, puts him to about 4.48
Tsonga vs Murray, puts him to about 2.41

Now obviously head to head match ups will change that around a bit. But those are the numbers I would be working on.

[Keefter]

lol plenty of people prepared to offer advice on what you should do here, at least Temujin answered the original question.

I havent got a clue about tennis tbh, but, that said I'll going to add my 2 pence worth all the same; Just because some underdog knocks Man United out of the FA Cup, doesnt mean that underdog will win the cup (though thats exactly what happened this year;)). Personally I would be leaving this bet on as well though. I might be tempted to take my stake back and keep my tennis P&L clean on my account but ultimately what will upset me more? missing out on £1500 or missing out on a chance to hedge £15k green at much shorter odds? the latter definately hurts more for me, you took a flyer based on a hunch and are in a nice position whatever you decide I wish you the best of luck.

[Temujin]

Plus, either 18 from Murray losing, or 42 from Nadal getting through.
Redundant sentence. Obviously meant to say "42 from Nadal NOT getting through."....

[Temujin]

Ok, this has inspired me to have a crack at the tennis tonight.

Just finishing off my sheet at the moment for future ventures, be back with the details of the bets later...... :)
Having not really had too much to do with tennis, I am relying on theory a little, but won't be risking much if I am wrong so will have a crack anyway.
As far as I can tell Tsonga v Nadal trades at 4.55, v Murray 2.53. As long as I am pretty close with that, I can't see how it can be a loser...

[PC0845]

Time to decide if you are a trader or a punter. Similar decisions for me in the past and I always let them run, always lost the potential greens, always blow my banks and now have to start all over again.

My advice , take at least 1K for yourself and trade the rest on the match as it progresses. Don't ignore a free grand, if you don't want it I will gladly take it for you and blow it really quickly by not greening up in time other markets.

That way, I will feel like crap when it happens and spare you the pain.

[Temujin]

Exactly. If everytime you chose the big profit rather than locking something in, then you aren't trading at all...
Obviously if you are basing it on value or some other measure then fair enough, but seriously...

[custard]

The moment of inspiration came when you decided to back Tsonga at big odds. I wish I had done the same. So, don't push your luck and take your winnings when you can.

As it happens, I believe Tsonga is unlikely to get to the final, but that would have no bearing on my actions. It's difficult enough to win anything, to throw it away on a gamble would not be a very clever thing to do.

[PC0845]

Exactly. If everytime you chose the big profit rather than locking something in, then you aren't trading at all...
Obviously if you are basing it on value or some other measure then fair enough, but seriously...

Tue story years ago, Colin Monthomerie last hole in US open . Middle of Fairway, odds were about 2.0.

My mate had 100 on him @ 500 / 1 before the tourney.

We were in the pub and I begged him to green up for about 25K, "Nah, **** it , it only cost me 100.) Monty blew it as usual and he had nothing. No green, nothing.

Green up lads, green up, I know it is extreme to quote the above but take it from me there is nothing as bad watching a good green go red.

It's like the end of Bullseye, "Here's what you could have won",,,,,, if you weren't so bloody dumb.

[Temujin]

The question, is would you bet 1k on Tsonga making the finals. Because that is what is happening.

[LuckyYou]

I will say it shortly - If you had luck 1 time would you have luck in the second ? Or maybe its not luck lol ? I doubt Tsonga can win Joko. I remember the Australian open 2-3 years ago when the Final was Tsonga - Joko. Guess who won...

[Pthon]

I placed a speculative bet on Tsonga when he was getting beat in the Federer match at big odds,matched prices from 130 to 200 stake about 90 quid.I stand to make about 15 grand if he wins but I dont know alot about tennis odds and was wondering if anyone could give me probable odds if he gets to the final playing A Nadal and B Murray thanks.
I've got no idea about the probable finals odds, but I've got an idea about what I would do.

Let's assume by greening out you can make 1.5k and by Tsonga winning the final you could make 15k. In that case you are actually backing Tsonga as outright winner at odds of 11, which are definitely better than the current odds of 8.4 for this bet. So, your bet is looking like a value bet - but still, would you have placed this bet if you had had to use some hard earned money?

[Temujin]

I've got no idea about the probable finals odds, but I've got an idea about what I would do.

Let's assume by greening out you can make 1.5k and by Tsonga winning the final you could make 15k. In that case you are actually backing Tsonga as outright winner at odds of 11, which are definitely better than the current odds of 8.4 for this bet. So, your bet is looking like a value bet - but still, would you have placed this bet if you had had to use some hard earned money?

Yes, a value bet is always worthwhile. But so is money management. Depending on the size of your normal bets, I doubt you would be placing a 1,500 dollar straight out bet on an 11.00 pop. Given variance, your bankroll would have to be ****ing huge, even if your selections and strike rate were fantastic.

[CPC]

So what did you do?

[LuckyYou]

I will say it shortly - If you had luck 1 time would you have luck in the second ? Or maybe its not luck lol ? I doubt Tsonga can win Joko. I remember the Australian open 2-3 years ago when the Final was Tsonga - Joko. Guess who won...

So what did you do?
Probably lost his own won money + 170 or his bet ( I can't remember). Like I said the luck is coming few times. And you have to take it.