In-play odds after a goal

[Bilout]

Hello.

For my first post, I have some questions for those who have experience of the in-play markets movements. More precisely, I want to now how a goal being scored affects the markets.
From what I have seen, I have come with the assumption that the chances of a goal being scored (or no goal being scored) remains consistant throughout the match (of course the chances decrease as time goes by).

What I mean would results in the following example.
Let's say the score is 0-0; should a goal be scored, as soon as the market re-open, odd for under 2.5 would jump to where the odd of under 1.5 would have been if the score had remain 0-0.
Another consequence in the correct score market would be that odd for 0-0 would be transfered to the 1-0 correct score (assuming the home team has scored).

Now what about the chances of a goal being scored by a specific team, and its consequences on the correct score market after a goal.
If the same assumption can be made; using the same example, it would mean that odd for 2-0 would now be what used to be the odd for 1-0 before the goal. And odd for 1-1 would now be set to the pre-goal 0-1 odd. And so on.

Of course I imagine that if the goal is scored by the underdog, this assumption might be slightly off as this is not what the market was expecting.
That' why I'd like to get some opinions from experienced in-play bettors.

Thanks.

[shadowninja]

From what I have seen, I have come with the assumption that the chances of a goal being scored (or no goal being scored) remains consistant throughout the match (of course the chances decrease as time goes by).


I don't think this is correct. I understand there's slightly more chance of a goal being scored within the first 10 mins of first half and second half, in injury time and last 10 mins plus injury time. If you're trading with the hope of no goals being scored, I think you're best off staying out of the markets at the start and end of each half. Perhaps it's a psychology and physical thing - most players are still warming up at the start and tired or relieved it's nearly over at the end so drop their guard slightly, thus the increased chances of a goal. And you're screwed if you are trying to trade out of a bad goal at the 92nd minute!

As for how it affects the market, I've only been focusing on match odds so can't answer odds-related questions about the markets you're interested in.

[Paolo]

Firstly, you don't take into account a time when goal was scored. This is very important for coeffs.
As I noticed, coeff for 1-0 doesn't change after goal, if goal was scored in 1st 20 mins.

And my expirence about trading on scores is 50/50. We can't predict when goal will be scored.

[Wednesday 13]

Try www.whatifodds.com; choose match, "score" goals by ticking boxes for home or away team, and then look how odds change.

[SiberianHuskey]

Try www.whatifodds.com; choose match, "score" goals by ticking boxes for home or away team, and then look how odds change.

I've tried, but it doesn't work :( Can you check if it's my connection or their server is down ?

[SiberianHuskey]

OK - got it, you just added ";" sign . Nice tool, thanks.

[Bilout]

Thanks for the answers and for the usefull link, this is exactly what I needed.

Also , still concerning the odds after a goal is scored; I wonder if there will always be a back odd at 1000 on the impossible scores as soon as the market re-open?
Is it a safe way to determine if a goal has been scored and by which team if I don't have access to any livescore?

[shadowninja]

I always have these two running. When it suspends, I just keep an eye on both as sometimes one updates before the other.
http://www.futbol24.com/Live/
http://www.flashscores.co.uk/