LTD advice

[MrTynKyn]

I made a negative trade , trying to minimize the loss taking a lot of risk.
match selection made , it meets the conditions
What would you do in the same situation ?
Lay the draw 50 @ 3.9
70 min (no goals) hedge for a loss (@1.85) -55
Plan was back the under 1.5 300@ 1.17 in order to decrease the loss when a red target came to the dog. Back the under would be too risky so I placed a
back fave 20 @ 2.58 trying to save something cause left 20 min with a big advantage to the fave.
Penalty taken against fave , 0-1 hedge for a loss -75
Min 80 Back dog 150 @ 1.36
Final result 0-1
Net loss -21

A goal from the fave would have been a disaster (-220 )
Feel free to be tough , i need to learn
Thoughts ?

[Torrezno]

Hi Mr Tinkin

From a theoretical point of view I think you were trying to chase your potential losses, incurring in more risk with every bet (-55 , -75, -220 ). In this business all outcomes are possible, and you are supposed to stick to your preplanned worst scenario (for example losing the 55).:Naughty

Remembering the Top Gun movie, you can learn two thing by quoting some dialogues:

a) Kelly Mc Gillis is in the training room showing videos of a high ris F14 air combat manouvre to the whole Squadron

Kelly: That's the last thing you should do.The MiG's right on your tail. The MiG has you in
his gunsight. What were you thinking?

Maverick: You don't have time to think up there. If you think, you're dead.

Kelly: That's a big gamble with a $ million plane.Unfortunately, it worked. The MiG never got a clean shot, Maverick makes an aggressive vertical move and defeats him with a shot. The encounter was a victory, but we show it as an example of what not to do.

b) Viper (instructor) blaming Maverick

- Top Gun (Trading) rules of engagement are written for your safety and for that of your team (bankroll). They are not flexible, nor am I. Either obey them or you are history. Is that clear?

This is good stuff, but its movie stuff, real life is more difficult and getting that kind of discipline is hard to learn, and whenever you think you have mastered you only need an excess of confidence to break the rules once more.

Despite knowing all the theory, Im' not better than you putting in practice, although with time I have improved a bit.

[MrTynKyn]

Thanks for the answer

So from a strategy point of view. In LTD when you reach 70min or 2.0 odds at draw ,you are out.

Never try to decrease the losses ?

[Temujin]

Why 70 mins? I would think there would be plenty of time for both teams to score, meaning the odds of the draw will still be relatively high?
I guess that would mean your trade out loss wouldn't be as bad, but surely the chance of scoring increases as time goes on?

This is actually more of a question for me, rather than making a statement to you...

[Larry]

What you could do,is to combine it from the beginning with an exact score of a draw and back it.

But first you must judge the game and think of of what score if it ends to a draw.

For example,you have a fave team but the opposite time is very possible to score.Then you select the exact score "1-1" @ 6,00.
Then you back that score and lay the draw.So you backed at 6,00 and layed at 3,90 so you have a profit.

But as i said,it depends on the game.

[chuck536]

IMO never LTD higher than 3.3.... and than you can probably afford to wait untill 80th minute, LTD is all about doing your homework on the game, usually i wont get in before 20 mins either.

[Mugged]

What you could do,is to combine it from the beginning with an exact score of a draw and back it.

But first you must judge the game and think of of what score if it ends to a draw.

For example,you have a fave team but the opposite time is very possible to score.Then you select the exact score "1-1" @ 6,00.
Then you back that score and lay the draw.So you backed at 6,00 and layed at 3,90 so you have a profit.

But as i said,it depends on the game.

What happens if it's 0-0? You lose both bets Larry.

Also the effects of commission when cross market trading like this severely limit profits and increase potential losses which I don't think is a good approach for a beginner.

[Temujin]

Yeah, I don't get all the cross market suggestions. If you want to limit your liability on laying the draw, then don't bet so bloody much in the first place. Any cross market limiting, will only cost you more in commission anyway.

[The Joker]

Thanks for the answer

So from a strategy point of view. In LTD when you reach 70min or 2.0 odds at draw ,you are out.

Never try to decrease the losses ?

You've been reading the "footbal cash generator" haven't you??