UKJamie
27th February 2010, 10:19 PM
Hi all
I've been a bit quiet while I have been juggling figues and trying to find my niche. I think I have found one, its a bit high risk in regards to liability, but choosing the matches carefully and getting the right odds I think it may work.
Anyway I am trying to work out some formulas for a speadsheet and for the life of me I cant figure the way to do it, so maybe one of you lot with more experience than me can shed some light.
What I propose to do is to find a match where there is a big favourite say like Liverpool v Blackburn this Sunday.
I can LTD at odds of 5.3 for £300 giving me a liability of £1290
Back 1-1 @ 10.5 for £151.43
Back 2-2 @ 30 for £53
Back 3-3 @ 120 for 13.35
Basically so long as its not 0-0 its almost certain to be a winner with £82 green across anything else up to 3-3
Of course 4-4, 5-5, 6-6 etc would also lose the bet, but in this game I feel there will goals but with Liverpool so strong against Blackburn the chance of 4-4 is unlikely, and everything is covered from 1-0 through to 3-3
I have a spreadsheet and the colums are odds, stake, return, profit, but I have to keep entering various amounts in the stake column to get the green across the board.
What I want to do is to use the £300 lay liability amount as the set figure, and when I put the odds into the columns the stakes are automatically calculated for the three draws (1-1, 2-2 and 3-3).
So from my above example I would have entered the lay odds of 5.3 and the stake of £300
then I just want to enter the back odds for 1-1, 2-2 and 3-3 and have the spreadsheet calculate the stake amount for them to give an equal return across the board (151.43, 53 and 120).
Does anyone with excel experience have a formula to do this please, or at least provide the maths to do the calculations.
I can them induvidually, and currently I enter the odds and the stake and my formulas calculate the return and the profit for each result. What I cant figure out is how to do them from just entering the odds and base the calculations on the lay liability.
Also I expect you will pick the bones out of the stategy, and its high risk based on the ROI but I am only paper trading and want to test it and if possible refine it, however pick away.
My last post had excellent replies and I learned a lot from them, so am looking forward to reading some more from the wiser ones that live here :)
Those of you that contributed to my last post will know I am living in Turkey and unable to have a Betfair account here, but the good news is I am returning sometime soon, possibly March and will be able to open one then, and I am experimenting and working out what stategy I will use when I can do so.
Cheers
Jamie
I've been a bit quiet while I have been juggling figues and trying to find my niche. I think I have found one, its a bit high risk in regards to liability, but choosing the matches carefully and getting the right odds I think it may work.
Anyway I am trying to work out some formulas for a speadsheet and for the life of me I cant figure the way to do it, so maybe one of you lot with more experience than me can shed some light.
What I propose to do is to find a match where there is a big favourite say like Liverpool v Blackburn this Sunday.
I can LTD at odds of 5.3 for £300 giving me a liability of £1290
Back 1-1 @ 10.5 for £151.43
Back 2-2 @ 30 for £53
Back 3-3 @ 120 for 13.35
Basically so long as its not 0-0 its almost certain to be a winner with £82 green across anything else up to 3-3
Of course 4-4, 5-5, 6-6 etc would also lose the bet, but in this game I feel there will goals but with Liverpool so strong against Blackburn the chance of 4-4 is unlikely, and everything is covered from 1-0 through to 3-3
I have a spreadsheet and the colums are odds, stake, return, profit, but I have to keep entering various amounts in the stake column to get the green across the board.
What I want to do is to use the £300 lay liability amount as the set figure, and when I put the odds into the columns the stakes are automatically calculated for the three draws (1-1, 2-2 and 3-3).
So from my above example I would have entered the lay odds of 5.3 and the stake of £300
then I just want to enter the back odds for 1-1, 2-2 and 3-3 and have the spreadsheet calculate the stake amount for them to give an equal return across the board (151.43, 53 and 120).
Does anyone with excel experience have a formula to do this please, or at least provide the maths to do the calculations.
I can them induvidually, and currently I enter the odds and the stake and my formulas calculate the return and the profit for each result. What I cant figure out is how to do them from just entering the odds and base the calculations on the lay liability.
Also I expect you will pick the bones out of the stategy, and its high risk based on the ROI but I am only paper trading and want to test it and if possible refine it, however pick away.
My last post had excellent replies and I learned a lot from them, so am looking forward to reading some more from the wiser ones that live here :)
Those of you that contributed to my last post will know I am living in Turkey and unable to have a Betfair account here, but the good news is I am returning sometime soon, possibly March and will be able to open one then, and I am experimenting and working out what stategy I will use when I can do so.
Cheers
Jamie